Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Hendricks, Weaver, Reyes, & Judge
Quick Looks: Kyle Hendricks, Luke Weaver, and Alex Reyes
Saturday’s Cardinals-Cubs game made for some good pitcher watching with three young pitchers taking the mound. Let me start with Hendricks.
A couple of years back, I did a Quick Look at Hendricks and here were my thoughts:
I just have not seen enough of him to convince me he can keep up the results. I would not be surprised one bit if his ERA from now to season’s end was near 4.00 (which is where his ERA estimators are hanging out).
It is two years later and I think people are still a little surprised to the see the soft-tossing righty still going. If a person looks into is overall pitch results, the reasons for his success are obvious. All three of his pitches, sinker, change, and curve, break downward. The combination leads him to have a +50% GB% which should help to keep his ERA just under his FIP. Here are my takes on each of his pitches as they stand now:
- Sinker: The sinker was between 87-89 mph. Besides sinking, it also cut in late which will make it hard to barrel up. He didn’t have great control of the pitch, but it was effectively inconsistent.
- Change: This pitch was nasty. It came in at 80 mph and looks just like his fastball and then just drops hard right at the end. For the season, it has a 25% swinging strike rate.
- Curveball: The curve was the 12-6 variety at 73-75 mph. He basically uses it as a show-me pitch to keep hitters from sitting on his other two pitches.
Hendricks looks to be a nice #2 to #4 real life starter who could have some BABIP issues with his sinker. Right now, the sinker’s high groundball rate (58%) and the change’s swing-and-miss capability make him a nice end-of-rotation arm in pretty much all leagues.
Luke Weaver’s results looked acceptable, two runs in four innings pitched, but I was not impressed with the overall package. First here are his pitches:
- Fastball: Was 93-96 mph in the first inning, but leveled out at 90-93 for the other three innings. It is very straight which will keep it from being elite. The 96 mph velo gets thrown around, but normally he operates much slower.
- Cutter: It was 91-93 mph with some glove-side run. It had the little bit of run which helped to differentiate it from his fastball.
- Change: It was a split-change and there is a nice still shot of him throwing it for the 2nd out in the 1st inning. It was 83-85 mph with some drop.
- Curveball: It was at 80 mph with 12-6 break. I didn’t see him throw it for strikes and it was a just a swing-and-miss pitch.
Of the pitches, I liked his change the best, until he hung it twice. The first time he gave up a double. The next time it was hung it went for a home run. A person can sort of see the pieces for a decent pitcher, but I think he will have few items holding him back. I am not sure he has an above average fastball. It’s more like league average. The lack of an average third pitch will limit his upside. The curve may eventually be average, but it’s not right now. I see him as a 40 to 80 fantasy pitcher similar to Jeremy Hellickson, Tanner Roark, and Marcus Stroman.
Alex Reyes took over for Weaver and it was a nice chance to see the recent call-up. Here are his pitches:
- Fastball: 95 to 100 mph and generally straight with some glove-side run. Its straightness and blazing speed remind me of Kevin Gausman’s and Yordano Ventura’s fastballs. Their fastballs rely just on speed and haven’t become elite. It is a very hittable pitch and only has a 4% swinging strike rate so far.
- Change: 87-88 mph and very straight. Not a good pitch.
- Curve: This pitch and his fastball are why he gets such high praise. He can throw this 12-6 for strikes or get hitters to chase it.
It will be interesting to see how hitters adjust to his speed after seeing him a second time. I should be more excited, but I am not. I was hoping to be blown away. I think Ventura and Gausman may be good comps for him going forward into next year and he should be valued as such. I think Reyes may have a bit more talent than the other two, but his workload may be limited after throwing only 69 innings so far this season. While his 2017 value limited, he does need to be kept in all keeper leagues for the breakout potential.
Prospect profile for Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge has been on people’s prospect radars for a while and he has been profiled for years. His most recent grades from Baseball America and MLB.com differ in every aspect except his speed, so each set of grades generates a different set of comparables. Here are the comps with Baseball America’s grades first and then MLB.com’s.
| Name | Year | Report Publication | Batting | Power | Speed | Defense | Arm |
| Aaron Judge | 2016 | BA | 45 | 75 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
| Yasmany Tomas | 2015 | BA | 45 | 70 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
| Aaron Judge | 2015 | BA | 50 | 70 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
| Alex Jackson | 2016 | BA | 50 | 70 | 45 | 50 | 60 |
| Steven Moya | 2015 | MLB | 45 | 65 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
| Kris Bryant | 2015 | MLB | 55 | 80 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
| Clint Frazier | 2015 | MLB | 50 | 65 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 2015 | BA | 50 | 70 | 50 | 60 | 60 |
| Jorge Soler | 2015 | BA | 50 | 70 | 50 | 50 | 70 |
| Clint Frazier | 2016 | BA | 50 | 65 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 2015 | MLB | 50 | 65 | 55 | 55 | 60 |
| Jorge Soler | 2015 | MLB | 55 | 70 | 55 | 55 | 65 |
| Kris Bryant | 2014 | MLB | 55 | 75 | 40 | 50 | 60 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 2013 | BA | 55 | 65 | 50 | 55 | 60 |
| Domingo Santana | 2015 | MLB | 45 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
| Domingo Santana | 2014 | MLB | 45 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
| Stephen Piscotty | 2014 | MLB | 45 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
| Jorge Soler | 2014 | MLB | 55 | 65 | 50 | 55 | 65 |
Hitters who performed similar to Aaron Judge’s scouting grades over their first three seasons
Mike Napoli, Giancarlo Stanton, Wilin Rosario, Mark Reynolds, Carlos Quentin, Will Middlebrooks, Jay Bruce, Dan Uggla, Chris Young, Ian Stewart
| Name | Year | Report Publication | Batting | Power | Speed | Defense | Arm |
| Aaron Judge | 2016 | MLB | 50 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 50 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 2016 | MLB | 50 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 55 |
| Clint Frazier | 2016 | MLB | 50 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
| Brendan Rodgers | 2016 | MLB | 55 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
| Brendan Rodgers | 2016 | BA | 55 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 55 |
| Cody Bellinger | 2016 | BA | 55 | 60 | 55 | 60 | 50 |
| Ryan Mcmahon | 2016 | MLB | 50 | 55 | 45 | 55 | 50 |
| Joc Pederson | 2015 | MLB | 55 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Bradley Zimmer | 2016 | BA | 55 | 55 | 55 | 60 | 55 |
| Alex Jackson | 2016 | MLB | 50 | 55 | 45 | 55 | 45 |
| Matt Kemp | 2003 | MLB Scouting Reports | 50 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 2016 | BA | 50 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 60 |
| Joc Pederson | 2014 | MLB | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Nick Williams | 2016 | BA | 60 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
| Nomar Mazara | 2016 | MLB | 55 | 60 | 40 | 60 | 50 |
| Dustin Fowler | 2015 | 2080 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 60 | 50 |
| Willy Adames | 2016 | MLB | 55 | 50 | 50 | 60 | 50 |
Hitters who performed similar to Aaron Judge’s scouting grades over their first three seasons
Chase Utley, Jason Heyward, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Jeff Francoeur, Grady Sizemore, Todd Frazier, Ryan Zimmerman, Hank Blalock, Bobby Crosby
The big difference is that Baseball America sees Judge with more power and less batting average than MLB.com. I really don’t know where his true talent lies. Both lists are decent, but just a little different type of hitter.
Three Outcome Leaders
| Name | PA | HR/PA | BB/PA | SO/PA | Total |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 216 | 4.6% | 14.8% | 35.2% | 54.6% |
| Miguel Sano | 363 | 5.5% | 12.1% | 34.7% | 52.3% |
| Chris Davis | 486 | 4.9% | 13.8% | 33.3% | 52.1% |
| Kirk Nieuwenhuis | 314 | 3.2% | 14.0% | 34.4% | 51.6% |
| Jason Castro | 295 | 2.4% | 13.2% | 34.2% | 49.8% |
| Chris Carter | 459 | 5.9% | 10.9% | 32.7% | 49.5% |
| Mike Napoli | 466 | 6.2% | 10.9% | 31.8% | 48.9% |
| Justin Smoak | 301 | 4.3% | 11.6% | 32.6% | 48.5% |
| Matt Joyce | 206 | 5.8% | 17.5% | 23.8% | 47.1% |
| Brett Wallace | 218 | 2.8% | 12.4% | 31.7% | 46.8% |
| Sean Rodriguez | 232 | 5.2% | 9.9% | 31.5% | 46.6% |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 432 | 5.8% | 10.4% | 30.3% | 46.5% |
| Byung-ho Park | 244 | 4.9% | 8.6% | 32.8% | 46.3% |
| Trevor Story | 415 | 6.5% | 8.4% | 31.3% | 46.3% |
| Curt Casali | 210 | 3.3% | 9.5% | 33.3% | 46.2% |
| Brandon Moss | 308 | 6.8% | 9.1% | 30.2% | 46.1% |
| Ryan Raburn | 213 | 3.8% | 11.3% | 30.5% | 45.5% |
| Yasmani Grandal | 319 | 5.6% | 15.1% | 24.8% | 45.5% |
| Tyler Naquin | 256 | 5.1% | 9.0% | 30.5% | 44.5% |
| Franklin Gutierrez | 216 | 5.1% | 10.2% | 29.2% | 44.4% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I don’t see much downside in Hendricks.
He doesn’t throw heat so he inspires less confidence, I guess, and can be had for cheaper. But dating back to 2014, he’s in the top-25 among active starters in ERA, FIP, xFIP. He seems less a “end-of-rotation arm” and more a frontline or middle type guy. I’m not sure what else he can possibly do to be considered “for real.”
I see him as a middle rotation with some up and down side so the #2 to #4 comment. He’s not close to being a #1, so maybe a #2 to #3 range at his current talent level.