Mixed Waiver Wire: Rougned Odor, Danny Espinosa
I must have a thing for second. I finished there in Mixed Tout Wars in both 2011 and 2012. I was runner-up in AL LABR in 2013. I placed there on multiple occasions in my dynasty football league – although I won that once, barely. More often than not, I get the girl because, if she feels like lovin’ me, if she gets the notion … you guessed it. I just haven’t mustered what it takes to seal the deal, on a number of occasions. Which seems odd, because I like mustard.
I don’t have a thing for second basemen, though. It’s just a coincidence that both of my recs this week play that position. I’m not trying to horn in on another of Scott Strandberg’s territories … again. But damn if it ain’t the second time I done so.
2B Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers
Ownership: CBS 22% | Yahoo! 4% | ESPN 2.5%
Fantasy owners were rather quick to pick up the scent in very deep leagues, but his ownership rate has stagnated. Fair enough. Odor, 20, is far from a finished product. He came straight from Double-A Frisco after a total of 282 plate appearances at the level, about half of them last year and the rest in this. He recorded strikeout rates on the farm that would be below league average in The Show, but the same is true of his walk rates. He’s 5-foot-11 and 170 pounds.
Odor, the organization’s top prospect entering this season, has given us a whiff of his upside, however. In that combined time at the Class AA level, he accrued 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases. In 425 plate appearances at Advanced Class A Myrtle Beach last year, he knocked out a handful and swiped 27 bags. There’s a lot of raw ability here, even if he’s not mature enough, mentally or physically, to deliver it on a consistent basis.
Odor might really stink it up, but I doubt it, because the playing time almost certainly won’t go away. The probability that he takes off is probably low if difficult to quantify, but the fact that he has a chance to do so is worth the roster spot. There’s more than a hint of the pop and speed lurking in Odor’s game that isn’t in many backup middle infielders that folks keep around.
The Rangers look like eventual sellers, a club ready to turn over some at-bats and innings to promising youths. If Mitch Moreland doesn’t need serious ankle surgery after all, Derek Holland returns to produce results like it was 2012 and Geovany Soto remembers how to hit .280 with 20 bombs when he comes back, then maybe they’d hold out. Not many ifs, and not the most hopeful ones, though. Hmmm, how about if Joe Saunders pitches like Sandy Koufax did in the second half of a too short career? Besides, even if the players in Texas who are still breathing play heroic roles in what turns out to be a future Disney film, Jurickson Profar (partially torn muscle in right shoulder, aggravated in late May) isn’t coming back this season.
We talked about this youngster on the pod a couple of weeks ago. I’d like to have a player like Odor on my bench in a 12-team mixed league. My roster in the only one of those types in which I play has both Robinson Cano and Jason Kipnis on it, so I can’t accommodate. Besides, it’s an OBP league, where Odor definitely less appealing. He probably won’t finish with the .300 average he has now – something closer to .265 or .270, like his projections say, seems about right. But he already has a pair of bombs, plays in that nice yard and will hit near the bottom of the order, where Texas won’t put pressure on him but will let him do his thing.
2B Danny Espinosa, Washington Nationals
Ownership: CBS 13% | Yahoo! 3% | ESPN 2.0%
This is likely a short-term addition. Left fielder Bryce Harper may return to the Nats near the beginning of next month, in effect rendering their improvised lineup a piece of history. But as long as Matt Williams believes that Ryan Zimmerman in left field is a good idea, Espinosa will receive plenty of opportunities to play.
Washington began this way when Zimmerman hit the shelf in April, of course, and Espinosa validated the club’s choice to depend on him. He slashed .288/.341/.488, with three round-trippers and the same number of pilfered bases, in the season’s first month. The local papers ran features on him that highlighted all his hard work spent in the offseason to remove some of the miss out of his long swing. The staff began to look for ways that the club could keep him in the lineup once everyone is healthy. They’re aware of the value of his plus-plus glove.
But it fell apart in May. Look at that .125/.195/.263 slash line. Williams discussed the switch hitter’s slide near the end of the month. The writer of that one, James Wagner, hits on some of glaring faults in Espinosa’s plate discipline and where those indicators headed, so I won’t repeat them. Well done, and thanks. We scratch each other’s backs. Symbiosis. Love.
Espinosa is on his way out of the funk in June. Not just coincidentally, he’s reduced his chase rate to an early-season level and has brought up the swing rate in the zone. He’s hit .344 and has thieved a base in the month.
Espinosa isn’t dependable. His swing is a constant work-in-progress. He educes an off feeling in my intestinal area, a slight queasiness. Of course, that could also be all the Greek yogurt, knockoff sandwich creme cookies and coffee I’ve consumed lately. But he’s already shown us the 20-20 potential. I want players at the end of my roster who can give me those relatively low-frequency counting stats – ding dongs and boosted bases – for as long as I can get them.
I hope to give Espinosa a second chance in the Mixed Tout Draft league (15-team mixed, OBP) this weekend. (Correct: That means I claimed him earlier this season. He registered a meager .265 OBP for my squad but gave me six homers and five steals in 140 at-bats. I’m pleased.) I considered it this past Sunday, but there isn’t a player on my roster whom I was willing to drop. I hope that the competition for his services, however temporary, isn’t great this weekend, once one of my players inevitably hits the DL.
Nicholas Minnix oversaw baseball content for six years at KFFL, where he held the loose title of Managing Editor for seven and a half before he joined FanGraphs. He played in both Tout Wars and LABR from 2010 through 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NicholasMinnix.
Do you get any fantasy league points for making bad puns about Odor’s name?
Tons!
Here’s mine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxjw-w-V5k4
I picked up Odor in both of my leagues as a prospect potentially worth hanging on to, and he’s done well by me, especially when Kipnis went down. I worry about his playing time moving into next year though as Profar should return, Betlre will still be around, possibly through 2016, and Andrus should be around through at least 2022. Some one in that group will have to go if Odor is going to get a decent amount of AB’s in 2015.
Should he be considered a sell high candidate in keeper leagues because of this?
That’s a great question. I think in general it’s important to realize how much can and often does change in the span of a calendar year, especially as it relates to prospects because of how much their performances and the dynamics of the team is up in the air. Therefore, I wouldn’t classify him as a sell-high candidate in a keeper league, especially a long-term one. It might look like a crowded situation now, but teams usually find ways to resolve them eventually. They don’t want the same type of situation you don’t – a good, MLB-ready player without a place to play. It’ll depend on their own evaluations of Odor, Andrus and Profar, as well as whether Beltre or Andrus becomes someone they’d prefer to trade as opposed to one of the young, cheap, cost-controlled players. Andrus has been mentioned, albeit briefly and probably without much to it, in trade rumors. Which of those players do you think may be least interesting? I think Odor’s ceiling might be the lowest of the players we’re talking about – keeping in mind that my evaluation is definitely on the amateur side – and for that reason, if his PT now excites someone in your league now, in the moment, he might be a sell-high candidate. Otherwise, I wouldn’t think too hard about it.
Hey Nick –
I’ve got a bit of dumpster fire at my three MI spots (2B, SS, 2B/SS) in my 10-team 6×6 Roto league with OPS as the sixth category. I’m been patching things together with a mixture of Hill, Hardy, Bogaerts and Everth. All of those guys should be better than the two you profile here but basically none of them have been. Both Odor and Espinosa are available.
In a league this shallow where I’m desperate for HR/RBI/OPS but also lagging in SBs – what you advise?
Thanks!
Man, that’s sort of rough. Well I think Bogaerts has proven that he’s gotta be in there every day, especially among that group. Hill and Cabrera would be the others. Hardy is a player I’d rather wait on than take a shot on Odor at the spot. This is without having examined any of them extensively. Cabrera hit above his head last year, it’s the walk rate that’s disappointing and has hurt his SBOs. I’d be cautiously optimistic about your MIs, save Hardy, who is just a slightly maddening player, and I’d guess that his FB distances have declined quite a bit, without looking. A little investigation to confirm some worry about Hardy and I think you could justify dumping him for Odor. But I won’t endorse that yet.
Any thoughts about the Tigers’ Eugenio Suarez, even as a stopgap? He seems to know how to hit.
He does. Detroit is supposedly quietly optimistic about him. As a stopgap, surely, he can fill the spot. Prospects who hit at the bottom of an AL order just have to tread water, to learn from some mistakes, to keep their jobs. He has more fantasy upside than anyone else Detroit could use at the position. He might end up with double digits in HR or SB, but I wouldn’t bet on both, and one seems ambitious to me. Not bad, thought about including him in this piece, but Odor was more appealing.
I’m in an OBP league, so that’s probably why I prefer Suarez. I’m also impressed that he seems to have improved while making the leap from AA to AAA this year. Maybe the light went on or something.