Missing Colorado
Unless league rules require it or an owner plays in an NL West-only league, owners don’t use their starters in Colorado. This stance may be a little extreme but the league’s aces should be the only started used in Colorado. Pitching in Colorado adds one run to pitcher’s ERA. Owners know this but visiting team must send out a starter to get sacrificed. I’m going to go over some of the pitchers affected the most by being the sacrificial lamb.
This past season, I owned Jeff Samardzija in a couple of leagues. His 4.42 ERA was just above league average (4.36 ERA). The effect on my team wasn’t that much though. There is no way I was going to start him in Coors and I missed out on his 1.94 WHIP and 11.91 ERA over 11.1 IP. With the starts removed, his ERA dropped to 3.98. While not a great ERA, it represented the true effect it had on my team.
Samardzija isn’t the only pitcher to feel the wrath of Coors Field. Here are the pitchers who saw their ERA improve by 0.30 runs after their Colorado innings where removed (min 20 IP):
| Name | IP | ERA | IP w/o COL | ERA w/o COL | ERA Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Estevez | 32.1 | 5.57 | 15.7 | 2.87 | -2.69 |
| Mike Dunn | 50.1 | 4.47 | 28.3 | 2.54 | -1.93 |
| Jeff Hoffman | 99.1 | 5.89 | 45.0 | 4.00 | -1.89 |
| Julio Urias | 23.1 | 5.40 | 19.3 | 3.72 | -1.68 |
| Mark Melancon | 30.0 | 4.50 | 28.0 | 2.89 | -1.61 |
| Kevin Quackenbush | 26.1 | 7.86 | 22.0 | 6.55 | -1.32 |
| Silvino Bracho | 20.2 | 5.66 | 20.7 | 4.35 | -1.31 |
| Brian Ellington | 44.2 | 7.25 | 43.7 | 5.98 | -1.28 |
| Tyler Chatwood | 147.2 | 4.69 | 77.3 | 3.49 | -1.20 |
| Joe Blanton | 44.1 | 5.68 | 43.3 | 4.57 | -1.11 |
| Matt Bowman | 58.2 | 3.99 | 57.7 | 2.97 | -1.02 |
| Luke Jackson | 50.2 | 4.62 | 49.7 | 3.62 | -0.99 |
| Jake McGee | 57.1 | 3.61 | 30.7 | 2.64 | -0.97 |
| Scott Oberg | 58.1 | 4.94 | 26.7 | 4.05 | -0.89 |
| Rex Brothers | 23.2 | 7.23 | 22.7 | 6.35 | -0.87 |
| Chris Rusin | 85.0 | 2.65 | 48.0 | 1.88 | -0.77 |
| Max Fried | 26.0 | 3.81 | 23.3 | 3.09 | -0.72 |
| Antonio Senzatela | 134.2 | 4.68 | 56.0 | 4.02 | -0.66 |
| Wade LeBlanc | 68.0 | 4.50 | 67.3 | 3.88 | -0.62 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 126.2 | 3.77 | 116.0 | 3.18 | -0.58 |
| Bryan Morris | 21.0 | 6.43 | 18.3 | 5.89 | -0.54 |
| Boone Logan | 21.0 | 4.71 | 19.3 | 4.19 | -0.52 |
| Matt Moore | 174.1 | 5.52 | 167.3 | 5.00 | -0.52 |
| Blake Treinen | 75.2 | 3.93 | 73.7 | 3.42 | -0.50 |
| Carlos Rodon | 69.1 | 4.15 | 64.0 | 3.66 | -0.50 |
| Miguel Diaz | 41.2 | 7.34 | 39.3 | 6.86 | -0.48 |
| Chris Flexen | 48.0 | 7.88 | 45.0 | 7.40 | -0.47 |
| Adam Ottavino | 53.1 | 5.06 | 29.3 | 4.60 | -0.46 |
| Adam Conley | 102.2 | 6.14 | 101.3 | 5.68 | -0.45 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 207.2 | 4.42 | 196.3 | 3.99 | -0.43 |
| Nick Pivetta | 133.0 | 6.02 | 130.3 | 5.59 | -0.43 |
| Clayton Richard | 197.1 | 4.79 | 187.7 | 4.36 | -0.42 |
| Steven Brault | 34.2 | 4.67 | 33.7 | 4.28 | -0.40 |
| Junichi Tazawa | 55.1 | 5.69 | 54.3 | 5.30 | -0.39 |
| Derek Law | 37.1 | 5.06 | 34.7 | 4.67 | -0.39 |
| Zach McAllister | 62.0 | 2.61 | 60.7 | 2.23 | -0.39 |
| Matt Garza | 114.2 | 4.94 | 110.3 | 4.57 | -0.38 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | 154.0 | 4.79 | 150.7 | 4.42 | -0.37 |
| Sam Gaviglio | 74.1 | 4.36 | 69.3 | 4.02 | -0.33 |
| Josh Hader | 47.2 | 2.08 | 46.0 | 1.76 | -0.32 |
| Joe Ross | 73.2 | 5.01 | 69.0 | 4.70 | -0.31 |
| Mike Clevinger | 121.2 | 3.11 | 117.7 | 2.83 | -0.28 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 175.0 | 2.31 | 158.0 | 2.05 | -0.26 |
| David Hernandez | 55.0 | 3.11 | 53.7 | 2.85 | -0.26 |
Here are my thoughts on some of the non-Colorado pitchers
- Julio Urias: It was a lost season for him and the Colorado start makes it look even worse. He had should surgery in late June and expects 12 to 14 months before returning. Right now, he’s a DL stash with maybe some late-season starts. It does seem like his 2018 season will set up a full return in 2019.
- Max Fried: His review turned into a full article.
- Hyun-Jin Ryu: Owners who kept Ryu on the bench during the Colorado starts got a sneaky good season on par with his 2013 and 2014 seasons. Owners should be able to pick him up using very few resources and had a serviceable back of the rotation arm.
- Mike Clevinger: I am probably one of the biggest Clevinger fans but I zero faith he’s going to repeat last season. His strikeouts and heavy flyball nature will keep him in games. His biggest issue is the 4.4 BB/9 (5th highest in the league, min. 120 IP). His 2017 walk rate was an improvement on his career numbers (4.6 BB/9). It’s tough to walk a batter every other inning and still be productive.
- Clayton Kershaw: One of the few pitchers I trust throwing in Colorado.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I’d like to see guys who may have been outliers and benefited. Looks like Godley, T. Walker, G. Gonzalez, Stripling, Wood, Bailey, Wainwright, Lackey, and Teherean all had good starts there. The latter 3 threw 7IP 0ER. Carlos Martinez and Zack Greinke were similar to the rest of their season @COL.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=10,119&strgroup=season&statgroup=1&startDate=2017-03-01&endDate=2017-11-01&filter=&position=P&statType=player&autoPt=true&sort=3,1&pg=0