Mining the News (9/1/23)

American League

Astros

• Hunter Brown has been trying to clean up his delivery.

David Laurila: We talked pitching two years ago. Outside of being in the big leagues, what has changed since that time?

Hunter Brown: “My stuff and my pitch shapes are similar, but I actually made a bit of a change in my last outing. There’s a difference in my windup, and in the stretch, where my hands are coming set. And my shoulders are already lined up out of the windup. It’s just a little rocker step kind of deal. That’s something we’ve been talking about for a while. We’re trying to clean up some inconsistencies that came with my previous [delivery]. It worked against the Tigers [on August 26], and hopefully it will continue to work.”

Mariners

• Andrés Muñoz is struggling with the pitch clock therefore his velocity is down.

Added manager Scott Servais, “I think it hasn’t been the same, and I think he’s aware of that. … One thing, teams know it. Teams and guys are looking for it. You’ve seen him go out there and throw three or four straight fastballs and the guy is still looking for a slider.”

Muñoz isn’t throwing it in the low-90s like he was at the end of last year, but the velocity readings are mostly in line with the totality of 2022, from 88.6 mph to 88.2 mph, and its 48.1% whiff rate is also close to the 50.8% from a year ago. But the .229 batting average and .337 slugging percentage are up from the respective .126 and .176 marks he posted last year.
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Part of the challenge, Muñoz said, has been his tempo between pitches. Data isn’t publicly available on each player’s time to the plate, but team officials have said that Muñoz was the longest in 2022.

Seattle worked out most of those kinks with its pitchers over six weeks in Spring Training, but Muñoz was being eased into action due to offseason ankle/heel surgery, then he hit the injured list from April 9 until June 6 with a right deltoid strain, pushing him further behind from adjusting to the pitch timer.

Rays

• Robert Stephenson increased his slider velocity by almost 5 mph.

Just like that, in mid-June, Stephenson’s heavily used breaking ball transformed from an 83-85 mph offering with some horizontal sweep into this 88-90 mph offering with more vertical moment. He also throws a fastball in the upper 90s and a splitter to keep left-handed hitters off-balance, but the slider remains his primary weapon.

“Predominantly, that’s what he’s going to go to. I’m just amazed that, like, the hitters know that, too — and the results that he has gotten have been really, really impressive,” manager Kevin Cash said. “It’s as wipeout of a pitch as we’ve seen, basically, since we acquired him.”

Royals

• Brady Singer is fatigued and will return to the rotation with a limited pitch count.

Officials believe the fatigue is a result of it being late in the year and the 27-year-old nearing a career high in innings — he’s thrown 143 1/3 innings after his start Friday, just 10 shy of his career high of 153 1/3, set last year.

“[The scans] all came back very positive, so a little bit of a collective sigh of relief,” general manager J.J. Picollo said Monday at Kauffman Stadium. “The plan right now is, we’re going to skip this start, he won’t go on the [injured list], and hopefully we can line him up on the backend of the rotation next time around. We’re breathing a little bit easier on that MRI.”

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The Royals were thinking about backing off some of Singer’s pitch counts anyway as the year came to a close; manager Matt Quatraro and the coaching staff are cognizant of the schedule and watching how taxing each inning is for Singer, who is 8-10 with a 5.15 ERA this year.

Twins

• In his rehab appearance, Chris Paddack’s fastball was sitting in the mid-’90s and he plans on throwing in the majors before the season ends.

What’s more, he’s throwing the ball hard. Recent reports from team sources said Paddack’s four-seam fastball is sitting in the mid-90s.

“It feels outstanding, it feels great,” Paddack said. “It just gives you that boost.”

Though next year Paddack is expected to be part of the starting rotation, the Twins suggested this past weekend he could play a role in the bullpen down the stretch or perhaps in the playoffs.

His target date for a return is Sept. 22, which is partly why he traveled to Minneapolis.

If the report is correct his velocity would be at or above his previous values.

Season: Velo
2019: 93.9
2020: 94.2
2021: 94.9
2022: 93.0

• Louie Varland is a rotation option once rosters expand.

But with rosters set to expand to 28 players on Friday, it remains unclear how the rotation will continue to fit together in the coming weeks, as Louie Varland could also perhaps emerge as an option to either give the Twins bulk innings or shorten up into relief as well.

“We’re just trying to balance so many things to put ourselves in a position for today and for the rest of the season,” Baldelli said. “There’s a lot that goes into it. We spend a lot of time on it. I can’t tell you about Bailey and Keuchel and Joe Ryan coming back and where Varland fits in.”

National League

Cubs

• Jordan Wicks doesn’t have a “normal” slider so scouts are having a tough time analyzing it.

WHERE IS THE DISCONNECT WITH WICKS?

It’s the slider. While Stuff+-type models love the pitch, some evaluators note that the shape doesn’t meet the eye test. There could be many reasons for this, but Marquee’s own Lance Brozdowski articulates this point wonderfully. According to Brozdowski, “My guess is that this has something to do with how the pitch sits in the context of his repertoire or maybe something more nuanced like how it breaks off his arm angle. A recent piece by Prospects Live points out that the horizontal separation between a slider and fastball can create some issues if it gets too large. Hitters may have a better ability to pick up the difference between these pitches earlier in ball flight (the Mariners pitcher Matt Brash has a slider which you could argue is the best “stuff” pitch in baseball and yet he posted an ERA north of 4.40 last year).”

Is there something wrong with the slider then? I’d argue “no” in isolation. Like Lance pointed out in the above passage, the slider is a good pitch and it is generating swing and miss, however just at an average rate in AA.

Dodgers

• Scott Boras blames the Dodgers for Cody Bellinger’s previous struggles.

“He was hurt, plain and simple,” Boras tells Nightengale of Bellinger’s 2021-22 seasons, when he batted a combined .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances. “He has surgery, and the Dodgers asked him to play with a 35% strength deficiency, and then with COVID, he was deprived of the expert medical treatment. He didn’t have the shoulder strength. You don’t just go from a .900 OPS to a .500 OPS without understanding the impact of an injury.”

Giants

• Alex Cobb lost his delivery mid-season.

“I had really lost my delivery after the All-Star break and had some physical things that I was trying to battle through,” Cobb said. “I probably changed my delivery a little bit and was lost. Both of those guys took that work home with them, watched video, sent me clips and tried different drills. They went through all the frustration I was having and handled it great. Something just clicked right around that Atlanta start that led me on the right track to getting my stuff back.”

Marlins

• Josh Bell is trying to elevate the ball … again.

Bell spoke to Craig Mish and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald about his surge at the plate in Miami, attributing plenty of the success to the manner in which hitting coach Brant Brown preps for games with hitters.

“We watch video together and decide there how the attack plan is going to go and I can work on that in batting practice and it tends to show up in the games,” said Bell, who called Brown’s prep work with Marlins hitters “advanced.” Bell also spoke favorably of loanDepot Park, noting that while the dimensions are pitcher-friendly, the consistency from playing in a stadium with a roof can be advantageous. “With the turf, and with the consistency of the dome, you’ve got the same lighting every inning, every at-bat, and it’s easy to get hits.”

Bell noted to the Herald that his focus has been simply on hitting line drives, but it seems those efforts have translated more into fly balls than the intended liners. His 12.9% line-drive rate with the Fish is actually lower than it was in Cleveland (19%) by a wide margin. Bell is simply elevating the ball at a strong, albeit not elite rate. His 45.2% fly rate since the trade ranks 35th of 173 hitters (80th percentile). But Bell is a big man with plenty of power; when he elevates the ball, good things happen.

• The team may go with a six-man rotation when Johnny Cueto comes off the IL.

With Johnny Cueto (viral infection) primed to return from the 15-day injured list over the weekend and rosters expanding on Friday, Miami has a plethora of decent pitching as it eyes a stretch run. Cueto threw live batting practice on Tuesday ahead of the series opener vs. the Rays, and while his stuff wasn’t top-notch, it’s not a concern for the Marlins. After all, Cueto is on a different level when he’s in true competition.

Cueto’s return signals a potential for the Marlins to carry a six-man rotation through the end of the season. It’s not a sure thing, but as manager Skip Schumaker said on Tuesday, “it’s definitely possible.”

• Bryan Hoeing could be part of the rotation, especially his new split-change.

But the Marlins could still go with a six-man rotation if they choose to keep utilizing an opener ahead of Bryan Hoeing, who has been impressive in two bulk inning appearances for the Marlins during bullpen games in August.
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Part of what has helped Hoeing has been his split-changeup. When he was optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville on July 29 after posting a 4.57 ERA over 23 appearances (six starts), Hoeing buckled down. He started working on his off-speed offering and the impact has been big.

“The split-change has been big for me,” Hoeing said postgame Sunday. “Earlier this year, I was only throwing my changeup to lefties and so I was kind of handcuffed out there, only going to it against the lefties. So the fact I was able to throw a changeup to righties [Sunday], it opens up my arsenal a lot, and it makes my other pitches play better.”

So far this season, the split change has a 12% SwStr%, and here are its comps:

In his last three appearances where he upped the pitch’s usage, he has a 1.69 ERA (3.38 xFIP), 7.6 K/9, and 0.84 WHIP.

Padres

• Yu Darvish has a bone spur in his elbow and might not throw any more in 2023. Also, he is deciding if he needs offseason surgery to remove the spur.

Padres right-hander Yu Darvish has a bone spur in his right elbow, recent tests revealed — a blow to Darvish’s chances of returning this season but, all things considered, positive news for the Padres as it appears Darvish has avoided any significant damage.

“There’s some relief in a sense that there’s nothing going on with the ligament,” Darvish said Thursday afternoon through interpreter Shingo Horie.

Darvish received a cortisone injection and will be shut down temporarily, manager Bob Melvin said. It’s possible he pitches again this season if his elbow responds to the cortisone shot. But the Padres are approaching the point where they’ll have to ask whether it’s prudent to push for Darvish to return at all.
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He didn’t rule out the possibility of an offseason cleanup operation to shave the spur down or take it out. But he also expressed caution that doing so might make his elbow too loose, potentially portending future issues. It’s still not entirely clear whether the spur is the root cause of the inflammation that sidelined him after his start last Friday against the Brewers.

Pirates

• Andre Jackson has difficulty maintaining his velocity.

Asked what he liked about Jackson on Wednesday, Shelton talked about his ability to adjust and keep getting outs even after his initial velocity began to wane. The only glitch for Jackson came in the fourth when Bobby Witt Jr. drilled a solo homer.

“Early on, it was the velo and the slider,” Shelton said. “Then we saw in the fourth and fifth that the velo started to tick down. But the changeup still played and he was able to execute pitches.”

Here is his last start and it appears that his velocity jumps around more late than drops.

He does struggle the second time through the order.

Role, xFIP 1st TTO, 2nd TTO
SP: 2.42, 5.03
RP: 3.41, 5.24