Mining the News (6/27/23)

• Most AAA pitchers are struggling with the automatic called balls and strikes.

To be fair to Peterson and other pitchers at Triple A, the league ERA is up over five this season as pitchers have struggled to adapt to the automated ball/strike system.

In the Pacific Coast League, the league-wide walk rate has jumped from 4.2 BB/9 to 5.1 BB/9 with little change in strikeouts (9.3 K/9 to 9.1 K/9). In the International League, the walk has gone from 4.0 BB/9 to 4.8 BB/9 with the strikeout rate staying steady at 9.2 K/9. I don’t have the means or the time to figure out if the strike zone is to blame but don’t be surprised if a pitcher’s walk rate drops once they get to the majors.

Of the guys with 20 innings in both AAA and the majors, their walk rate has dropped by an average of 0.58 BB/9 (median = 0.71) going to the majors. Looking at the same group of pitchers from last season, pitchers, on average, saw their walk rate increase by 0.10 (median 0.14). I’m not sure how projections are handling the change.

American League

Astros

• José Urquidy’s fastball is sitting 88-89 in his latest bullpen.

José Urquidy threw a 25-pitch bullpen today at Dodger Stadium and said his velocity was 88-89 mph. He expects to throw two more next week before facing hitters.

— Matt Kawahara (@matthewkawahara) June 24, 2023

His fastball averaged over 93 mph before going on the IL. There is a good chance he’ll throw harder, but it’s something to monitor.

Athletics

• Tony Kemp is picking up his production.

With Sunday’s homer — his third of the year — Kemp improved to a .297 batting average with a .921 OPS this month. His season average still begins with a 1, though, which is a good indication of the start he had to 2023.

Quality of contact was the biggest concern. Kemp didn’t strike out or even chase pitches outside the zone that often in the first two months of the season, but poor timing led to weak contact, which in turn generated a frustrating amount of balls on the ground.

The big key here is that Kemp has leadoff in two of the last three games with Esteury Ruiz struggling in June (.232/.259/.293)

Blue Jays

• Yusei Kikuchi has been working with his pitch velocities to maximize results.

The key to Kikuchi’s success this month, in which he’s pitched to a 2.28 ERA, has been throwing his breaking balls — slider and curveball — with less velocity, which gives them more break and helps them play off his fastball and changeup more effectively.

Consider that in April, Kikuchi’s slider averaged 89 mph and opposing teams hit .170 against it. In May, the slider was up to 90 mph, making it look more like a cutter and creating less separation from his fastball. Hitters punished it to the tune of a .367 batting average and a .800 slugging percentage. But this month, the slider has been sitting around 88 mph, and entering play Sunday, hitters were batting .212 against it.
…

His curveball, meanwhile, is sitting around 83 mph this month, down from 85 mph in May, and the pitch is holding batters to a .188 average. Kikuchi has also been using it far more often, confidently flipping it in in any count rather than using it exclusively as a get-one-over first-pitch strike.

Rays

• Tyler Glasnow knows when pitching motion is off but it takes him a while to fix it.

“I can look at video and know what’s going on. I’m just having trouble trying to implement it and fix it and do that stuff,” Glasnow said. “But I know it’ll come back.”

After working his way back from Tommy John surgery to pitch three games for the Rays last year, including one in the postseason, Glasnow sustained a left oblique strain in March and didn’t make his season debut until May 27. But he wouldn’t blame anything on his strange buildup to this season, instead citing a familiar hitch in his mechanics.

Glasnow said he has been “coming off of everything” in his delivery, rushing down the mound in a way that reduces his power and creates inconsistency with his release point. It will all sync up “randomly,” he noted, but it has created a lot of variance with his typically high-octane heater.

….

“My arm feels like it’s floating in space, and I can’t really get any sort of leverage with the ground,” he said. “It’s something I’ve dealt with before, and I’m just having trouble trying to fix it at the moment. … A lot of times, it’s just kind of getting that comfortable feeling again and getting back to being athletic.”

Tigers

• Beau Brieske will return as a reliever.

So, too, could be right-hander Beau Brieske, who has yet to pitch in the majors this season because of a right ulnar nerve entrapment. Brieske is also on a rehab assignment in Toledo, where he is working as a reliever.

White Sox

• When Mike Clevinger returns, it will be as a full-length starter.

More Grifol: "With Clevinger, it still could be up in the air. He's a starter, so he's not coming back for an inning. We've just got to make sure. We've got to build him up."

— Scott Merkin (@scottmerkin) June 25, 2023

Yankees

• Aaron Judge might feel pain in his toe for six more weeks.

The fact Judge is still experiencing pain when he walks is not encouraging news. Dr. Stein, who hasn’t seen Judge’s X-rays or MRI scans and isn’t treating him, said this could indicate a potential lengthier recovery timetable.

“I think this is somewhat of a significant development as it tells us the injury may be more severe than initially thought, especially if he still has pain with just walking,” Dr. Stein said. “If it’s a partial tear, it might take six weeks to heal to not having pain with just walking.”

National League

Dodgers

• Emmet Sheehan and Bobby Miller will remain in the rotation when Julio Urías comes off the IL.

Hoornstra adds that, according to Roberts, young right-handers Emmet Sheehan and Bobby Miller both figure to remain in the rotation even after Urias is activated. Roberts heaped praise on the pair of youngsters, describing their performance at the big league level so far as “100th percentile” when it comes to handling the opportunity to pitch in the majors. Entering play today, Sheehan has posted a 1.50 ERA across two starts with the club while Miller has impressed to the tune of a 2.83 ERA in five starts.

Marlins

• Eury Pérez will take a break from pitching within a week or two.

Eury Perez who will start Sunday against the Pirates, will also likely start next weekend in Atlanta. The club at that point could pause him for a breather and bring him back after the All Star break. Just something under consideration.

— Craig Mish (@CraigMish) June 24, 2023

• Trevor Rogers will return sometime well after the All-Star break.

Rogers, on the other hand, is not expected back any time soon. Per McPherson, the left-hander is dealing with a partial tear in his right lat, an ailment Rogers himself tells reporters is rather rare for left-handed pitchers. On a more optimistic note, Rogers notes that he believes he’ll be able to avoid surgery, and that he’s currently hoping to have more clarity on when he can resume throwing following the All Star break

He is droppable in most formats.

Mets

• José Quintana is expected to return around the All-Star break.

The plan right now is for Peterson to get a couple of turns in the rotation ahead of José Quintana’s return, which is slated for the week before the All-Star break.

• Tylor Megill has lost some rise on his fastball.

The main issue with Megill’s fastball is that it’s lost its carry at the top of the zone. The way to measure this is with vertical approach angle, which measures how a pitch is moving as it crosses home plate in relation to the league average. In his first two seasons, Megill’s fastball maintained its ride better than the league average fastball, which is to say it was resisting gravity better than the average fastball. This season, it’s dropping faster than the average fastball.

Nationals

• CJ Abrams is not trying to pull the ball for home runs but using the middle of the field.

“[CJ Abrams has] been working with [hitting coach] Darnell [Coles] about staying on the ball,” Martinez said. “The ball jumps off his bat, it really does. So when we can keep him in the middle of the field, he’s going to be really good. And you saw that today — home run, base hit back at the pitcher. That’s the kind of hitter we see in him, that he’s going to hit the ball, and every now and then, he’s going to generate some power and do that.”

Phillies

• Trea Turner has finally gone back to a small leg kick and has been more productive.

“Well,” Turner said, “when you want to leg kick all year and your hitting coach won’t help you leg kick, it’s hard to hit the ball hard. Then you get the leg kick right. We stayed late yesterday and hit a little bit, trying to find that leg kick. It’s something I’ve done my whole career. Two strikes, you kind of shorten up and whatnot, but leg kick I feel like it’s always helped me hit the ball a little harder.”

Over the past week, he has hit .250/.429/.438 with 1 HR and 3 SB.

• Every pitcher on the team is getting better in some way.

Cotham can point to small adjustments for every starter — better mechanics for Zack Wheeler that have improved his command, a sharper curveball for Ranger Suárez that has emerged as a legit third pitch, fewer cutters for Aaron Nola and a refined pitch mix.

And, for Walker, better everything.

“I feel like when my velocity is up, I think everything just plays a little bit better,” Walker said. “Splitter plays better. The cutter’s been really good lately. (I’ve) been throwing more.”

• Bryce Harper is struggling against breaking pitches from lefties …

Harper is being challenged, however, in a way he has never been challenged in his career. He is seeing only 44.4 percent fastballs, which is the seventh-lowest rate in baseball (minimum 500 pitches).

It is also a career low. His previous low? 52.4 percent, last season.

It is even worse against lefties. Harper is seeing only 39.8 percent fastballs against them, which is the third-lowest rate in baseball (minimum 100 pitches). Harper never saw fewer than 53.6 percent fastballs against lefties in any season.

…and it will at least be after the All-Star break before he starts playing first base.

It explains why Harper is batting .177 with a .454 OPS against lefties this year, compared to his career .259 batting average and .807 OPS against them. Just add it to Harper’s list of 2023 challenges. He is still recovering from Tommy John surgery in November. He hopes to play first base sometime after the All-Star break.