Mining the News (5/4/24)
American League
Astros
• Hunter Brown may only get one more start before getting demoted.
Brown may only be guaranteed at least one more turn in the Astros’ rotation, but the impending return of Cristian Javier could force the club into a difficult decision between him and top prospect Spencer Arrighetti. That Brown sat in the bullpen during both of the team’s games in Mexico City as a long-relief insurance policy may have signaled its intentions.
• For now, Jon Singleton will be playing first base.
Singleton, who’s taken over the full-time job at first base following the option of struggling slugger José Abreu, hit a go-ahead, two-run homer in the sixth inning and drove in three runs to lead the Astros to an 8-2 victory over the Guardians and a series win Thursday night at Minute Park. He was 4-for-9 with two homers and six RBIs in the Cleveland series.
Guardians
• The manager is going to start everyone.
[Stephen Vogt] doesn’t want hitters rotting on the bench.
Last year, Gabriel Arias went three weeks between starts at one point. Aside from a two-week injured list stint in August, Tyler Freeman was on the big-league roster from May 10 until the end of the season but made only 37 starts. Other than Hedges, everyone’s on pace for more than 300 plate appearances. Vogt has leaned on the versatility of Fry and Gabriel Arias, who have appeared at four and six different positions, respectively (though Arias’ cameo in center field on Thursday night, uh, didn’t go so well).
The issue with this take is that several mediocre talents won’t start enough to be useful fantasy assets.
Orioles
• The team considers ideal batted balls hit between 5 and 30 degrees.
Westburg — drafted 30th overall by Baltimore in the 2020 MLB Draft — referenced an Orioles’ organizational philosophy that is hammered home when young players enter the organization. From the start, Orioles hitters are taught to make positive swing decisions and produce hard contact at optimal angles for maximum damage.
“As soon as you get drafted [by the Orioles], it’s about swing decisions, swinging at the right pitches, hitting the ball at good angles — the 5-to-30-degree launch angles — [which leads to] balls that are on a line and have a good chance to leave the yard,” Westburg told a group of reporters before a recent game.
While the team likes that launch angle range, only hits 34% of the team’s batted balls at that range for the league’s second-lowest rate.
Tigers
• Wenceel Pérez might not get much of a chance because of his defensive limitations. If he replaces anyone, it would be Parker Meadows or Zach McKinstry.
Given such a small sample, it would be unwise to fall too in love with the 24-year-old Pérez despite all this charm. He suffered from the yips at second base, and the persistent throwing issues led the Tigers to move him to the outfield this spring. His routes and instincts are very much a work in progress, and despite his hot bat, he had a career .746 OPS in the minors and was never hailed as a true top prospect.
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Even one week ago, conventional wisdom would have Pérez being the corresponding move when Urshela returns. But if he keeps hitting like this? The Tigers have so far had no discussions about demoting struggling rookie Parker Meadows, and Meadows’ plus-5 defensive runs saved in center field could continue to buy time for his bat. But the fact the Tigers have already played Pérez in center field does present an interesting alternative. “I’m a little more confident now that I’ve been playing more there, so it’s been great,” Pérez said of the outfield.
If not Meadows, utilityman Zach McKinstry — who is hitting only .209 with a .577 OPS since June 1 of last season and does not have minor-league options — could be feeling pressure. Pérez is a switch hitter who is best from the left side, a fact that may not bode well for McKinstry, who is on the roster largely for his left-handed bat. The same could go for rookie second baseman Colt Keith, who is hitting .161 and still searching for his first home run.
Twins
• Trevor Larnach has made a few adjustments at the plate.
trevor larnach made adjustments
🚫 not starting open
🚫 not nearly as much movement into his launch positionv small sample size but good signs so far compared to last year
miss%
37% ➡️ 32%exit velo
90.1 ➡️ 95.2contact% vs breaking balls
49.5 ➡️ 75.0 https://t.co/L5dPWCTHjb pic.twitter.com/CaAn7SuRHj— parker hageman (@HagemanParker) April 24, 2024
White Sox
• Mike Clevinger will be joining the team next week.
Mike Clevinger, making his second start for Charlotte tonight, will likely join the White Sox next week for the Mon-Weds series at the Rays.
— Daryl Van Schouwen (@CST_soxvan) April 30, 2024
So far in his rehab starts, he can regain last season’s velocity.
Yankees
• Gleybar Torres is in consideration to be the league’s worst power hitter.
It’s not just the lack of power that’s been missing from Torres, but his inability to drive the ball has been noticeable, too. He’s hit just two pitches over 350 feet this season, and both were regular flyouts. Only Luis Arraez, not known for his power, has more plate appearances in the majors this year without a home run.
National League
Cubs
• Hayden Wesneski is throwing more strikes.
Wesneski has focused on pounding the zone more this season and he’s done exactly that. Last season, he threw 63 percent strikes, a point below league average. This year, through 126 pitches, he’s at 74.6 percent.
Wesneski isn’t missing bats at the rate some expected when he burst onto the scene late in 2022 (he has just a 15.4 percent strikeout rate), but he’s pounding the zone, barely allowing walks (2.6 percent) and has an impressive 51.6 percent ground-ball rate. With injuries to Wicks and Justin Steele, it looks like Wesneski may need to make a few more starts. But whatever role he ends up taking going forward, it’s clear he’s made some changes that could allow him to positively impact the team this summer.
Dodgers
• The managers think Andy Pages will remain in the majors once players start coming off the IL.
Now, the real test will come when the Dodgers are healthy. Heyward is still at least a couple of weeks away, which means Pages will continue to get playing time in center and right. But when he returns, the Dodgers will have to make a decision. James Outman and Taylor haven’t performed so far this season. If Pages continues this development, it’ll be hard to send him down.
“Well, everyone’s idea of a while is relative,” Roberts laughed, when asked if Pages will be with the Dodgers for an extended period of time. “So — yeah, he will. My version is yes, he will.”
Giants
• Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, and Keaton Winn will be limited to 180 IP.
And Giants president Farhan Zaidi acknowledged that while there’s no official innings cap for [Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, or Keaton Winn], the organization views 180 innings as red on the pressure gauge.
“We all talked at the beginning of spring training with the three, even before we signed (Blake) Snell,” Zaidi said. “We told them, ‘We’ll lean on you more heavily in the beginning of the year, and as guys come back and we have more options, we’ll figure out where we are.’”
Marlins
Roddery Muñoz is an interesting stash.
Through his first two Major League starts, Muñoz has given up three runs on five hits and three walks across 11 innings with 14 strikeouts. He joined the late José Fernández as the only pitchers in franchise history to have 13-plus strikeouts and a sub-0.75 WHIP across their first two games with the team. His 14 strikeouts are tied for second most through a player’s first two MLB starts, with both coming for the Marlins.
According to Baseball Savant, hitters are slashing .111/.172/.148 with eight strikeouts and two walks against Muñoz’s fastballs (four-seamers, sinkers and cutters). His slider is even more effective in a smaller sample: Batters are hitless in six plate appearances ending on the pitch, with four strikeouts.
Mets
• Christian Scott’s role/status past his first start is still up in the air.
If Scott performs well, he could eventually supplant Adrian Houser, whose ERA rose to 8.16 on Thursday in a 7-6 win over the Cubs. Asked afterward if Houser made any progress in Thursday’s outing, manager Carlos Mendoza replied: “Not really.” But the team is not ready to replace Houser in the rotation at this time.
“Our job is to get him back on track,” Mendoza said.
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So for at least one turn through the rotation, the club will proceed with six starting pitchers. The Mets remain committed to giving Houser at least one more start, partially because they have few other internal options. Tylor Megill (right shoulder strain) is due back from the injured list by the middle of this month, followed by Kodai Senga (right shoulder capsule strain) and David Peterson (recovery from left hip surgery) in late May or early June. Their returns will prompt additional decisions, which is part of the reason why the Mets are guaranteeing Scott only one start.
Here is another vague team quote on Scott’s role.
Mendoza was noncommittal when asked if the Mets would stick to a six-man rotation beyond one turn through. He also wouldn’t say whether Scott would stick around after the start on Saturday.
“We’ll see,” Mendoza said.
Phillies
• The team is considering using Spencer Turnbull in a piggyback role.
Turnbull is 2-0 with a 1.67 ERA in six starts this season, which is the ninth-lowest ERA out of 82 qualified pitchers. But now that Taijuan Walker is back from the injured list, the Phillies have six starters for five spots. There has been a tremendous amount of focus on Turnbull’s future because Philadelphia has said it does not want to employ a six-man rotation because of the potential long-term strain on the bullpen. The club also has said it wants to monitor Turnbull’s workload because he has not pitched more than 56 2/3 innings in a season since 2019.
Could piggybacking be the answer?
“Absolutely,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Wednesday morning at Angel Stadium. “It’s TBA, but I think it makes some sense.”
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Interesting insight from Westburg, but I believe that your linked baseball savant search actually shows that the Orioles pitching has been 2nd best at limiting those ideal batted balls. If you sort by Player Type:Batter instead of Player Type:Pitcher, then Baltimore is 5th among teams with 39.3% of balls hit in the 5 to 30 degree range. Additional included stats in the search sample show BAL 1st in Barrel/BBE% at 20.7%, 1st in Hard Hit% at 62.9% among teams, and 1st in Exit velocity at 95.8 mph. They are 2nd among teams in wOBA at .724, and 2nd in xwOBA at .727 for the sample, so the Orioles are very near the top in the “quality and effectiveness” of their optimal launch angle batted balls, and to such an extent that they likely derive the most overall hitting benefit as a team from ideally-angled batted balls. Practicing what they preach in 2024….