Mining the News (4/4/24)

American League

Astros

• Ronel Blanco added a changeup.

“Blanco has the repertoire to do this every time he goes out there,” manager Joe Espada said Tuesday. “He added that changeup. He can go deep into games because he throws strikes. He’s efficient. We expect him to continue to provide some good outings for us moving forward.”

The changeup could give him a huge boost. Before the change, he was just a fastball-slider pitcher, but in his no-hitter, he threw his changeup more than any other pitch.

     Pitch: Usage

• Change: 34%
• Slider: 32%
• Four-seamer: 30%

Besides giving him a much-needed third pitch, the changeup seems to be above league average.

In Spring Training, the changeup posted a 69% Whiff%, and in his first start, it was at a 42% Whiff% (25% SwStr%). PitchingBot Stuff grades it as a 58 (50 is average). Stuff+ has it at 162. Here are my comps to the pitch:

With the changeup, he’s a new pitcher and previous valuations can be thrown out and readjusted.

• As great as Blanco’s start was, the team might demote him to the bullpen or go with a six-man rotation.

Even after Verlander is activated, Blanco could position himself as the team’s sixth starter, should the team choose to expand its rotation. During spring training, both Espada and general manager Dana Brown sounded bullish on the idea. After a scheduled off day Thursday, Houston will play 16 games in 17 days, a stretch that could be conducive to a six-man setup.

Rangers

• I’ve been intrigued by how Dane Dunning got his strikeout rate up to 10.7 K/9 in Spring Training. With StatCast information, I’m still not sure.

First, his average fastball velocity is down 1.3 mph (2% Swstr%). On top of that, he’s throwing it more with the usage up from 34% to 52%. Finally, he couldn’t keep the velocity up during his start.

With the fastball being … bad, he made up for it with his secondaries missing bats.

   Pitch: SwStr%

• Slider: 29%
• Change: 54%
• Cutter: 27%

There is some usage upside, few sinkers, more everything else. I’m not sure why he leans into the sinker so much.

Red Sox

• The team is moving away from throwing fastballs.

Red Sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey identified early on in his tenure with the Red Sox that his new pitching group might be relying too heavily on fastball usage when many of his pitchers had valuable weapons they weren’t deploying as often or in the right spots. He identified that as one way to get more out of his existing group.

“The history of baseball suggests that fastballs in general have the most damage attached to them,” Bailey said. “So, looking at some fastball rates from last year, there’s some low-hanging fruit there and leveraging our weapons that generate weak contact and swing-and-miss more often.”

The amount of non-fastballs the team is throwing is out to crush all records of non-fastball usage.

Team fastball usage since FG started tracking the data in 2007.

Four of the lowest teams with the Red Sox at 30% (h/t to @jcmccaffrey). https://t.co/TuFF3YdLse

Six of the top seven.

I'm sure some of these numbers will regress up, but the fastball continues its decline. pic.twitter.com/8VlcyJo92j

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) April 2, 2024

Twins

• Brooks Lee won’t get the call to replace Royce Lewis because Lee is also on the IL.

Adding to the degree of difficulty for the Twins is that their most appealing and highest-upside fill-in option, top-100 prospect and spring standout Brooks Lee, started the season on the Triple-A injured list with lower back pain. Calling up a healthy Lee to play third base would have been a straightforward solution, but he’s expected to be out for three to four weeks.

Lee is on track to return well before Lewis and could quickly emerge as a fill-in option following a brief Triple-A stint, but in the meantime, the Twins will have to mix and match to squeeze as much production as possible out of the available options. Earl Weaver himself couldn’t dream up platoons good enough to make anyone forget Lewis, but the Twins do have some pieces that fit well together.

National League

Dodgers

• Gavin Lux tried to restart his season by getting off Twitter.

The process of getting his season back on track started by getting off X. But far more impactful for Lux, was the work he began putting in with Brian Cain, a sports mental skills coach that was recommended to the 26-year-old by teammate Kiké Hernández.

Giants

• Kyle Harrison’s innings limit will be determined by feels.

“There’s no real formula for innings,” Melvin said. “It’s more about seeing how [Harrison] feels from outing to outing and kind of going from there. The pitch count was under control. When you throw the ball over the plate, you’re going to give up — especially to that team — a homer or two. But if they’re solo home runs, you can live with it. He didn’t put himself in a position where there was a lot of traffic.”

Nationals

• MacKenzie Gore’s fastball is up 2 mph.

Gore immediately got into game mode. He hurled a 97.3 mph fastball on his first pitch, and he reached 98.6 mph in the at-bat with Connor Joe that resulted in a popout. The southpaw averaged 97.0 mph with his four-seamer, up two ticks from last season.