Mining the News (12/16/22)
American League
Astros
• It seems like Yainer Diaz has the upper hand on Korey Lee as the team’s second catcher.
There are those in the organization who like Diaz more than Lee because of his bat. Diaz can also play first base in addition to catcher. He was acquired from the Guardians in July 2021 and slashed .306/.356/.542 between Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Sugar Land last season. Lee has a tremendous arm, but he is behind Diaz offensively after slashing .238/.307/.483 with 25 homers and 76 RBIs last season at Triple-A.
Steamer projects Diaz with a .754 OPS and Lee with .652 OPS.
Blue Jays
• Kevin Kiermaier was told he was going to be the everyday centre fielder. Also, he’s hitting without pain but is not 100% healthy yet.
“They said they want me to play pretty much every day, they want me manning centre field out there, getting my rest when I need to, but there were no platoon talks or anything like that,” Kiermaier said. “It seems like it’s my job to lose, I guess you could say, and I’m going to do everything in my power to go out there and play Gold-Glove-calibre defence and do what I can offensively to just be a nice complement to an already great offensive team.”
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At 22 weeks post-surgery, Kiermaier believes he’s ahead of schedule in his recovery, initially cited as six to seven months, and he feels about 85-90 percent back to normal. He’s already running, hitting and throwing and expects to be ready to go in spring training.
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Hitting in the cages lately, however, Kiermaier said he’s noticed “a huge difference in swinging without pain.” He’s hopeful the work he’s putting in this offseason and learning from some of his new teammates will lead to an improved offensive performance in 2023.
Until he breaks during the second week of the season.
Orioles
• Adam Frazier was added as a versatile bat for the infield and the outfield.
Prior to adding Frazier, the O’s projected infield for ‘23 had Gunnar Henderson (the club’s No. 1 prospect and the No. 2 prospect in baseball, per MLB Pipeline) at third base, Jorge Mateo at shortstop and Ramón Urías (a Gold Glover at third this past season) at second. Now, it’s likely Frazier could handle most of the work at second, shifting Urías into more of a utility role.
It’s also possible Frazier will play some corner outfield, considering general manager Mike Elias said at last week’s Winter Meetings that he’d like having the flexibility to allow Austin Hays and Anthony Santander to get off their feet more, spending some additional time at designated hitter. Frazier will allow Baltimore to do that with some of its infielders, too.
And it’s known that Ramón Urías will move off third base.
“I’m really comfortable putting Ramón in a lot of different places, to be honest with you,” manager Brandon Hyde said at the Winter Meetings. “That’s what’s so great about Ramon, is the versatility. And the more guys we can have like that, that can move around the field, it just benefits us.”
It’s interesting to see people assuming that the Orioles spent $8 million therefore Frazier will be their starting second baseman. The deal is that Urias is projected to be the better hitter and both are projected to perform better than Jorge Mateo.
Currently, here is our depth chart for the Orioles.
I wonder if Mateo might see the most bench time. I just don’t have a read on the situation.
Rays
• Zach Eflin is 100% healthy.
Eflin said he feels “phenomenal” physically, with no issues in his knees, and he heard good things about the Rays’ ability to keep veteran pitchers healthy. He, too, believes his best years are ahead.
Tigers
• Justyn-Henry Malloy, who the Tigers got from the Braves, will likely be promoted this season to play in the outfield or third base.
Malloy’s defensive home is perhaps the largest question surrounding his game. He played third base his entire life, but the Braves moved him to the outfield in the minor leagues last year shortly after signing Austin Riley to a long-term deal. The Tigers want Malloy to play both the infield and outfield next season. There are scouts who wonder if he will eventually end up at first base.
“If I can be a serviceable left fielder, serviceable right fielder, serviceable first baseman, it doesn’t really matter to me,” Malloy said.
The likely plan is for Malloy to start the season in Triple-A Toledo, where J-Hen would be a Mud Hen. But as it stands at this point in the offseason, the corners are clear-cut weaknesses for the Tigers. They’re still seeking to add an outfielder, and it’s unclear who will play third base. Spencer Torkelson will have to prove himself at first base next season, too.
Last season, the 22-year-old hit .289/.408/.454 with 17 HR and 5 SB across three minor league levels.
• The stadium will not change its dimensions and will remain a pitcher’s park.
“My general opinion on dimensions is that I would prefer to be on one side of the aisle or the other,” Harris said. “I would prefer to have the opportunity to have some asymmetry in the environments that we’re playing. If we’re on one side of the aisle as a pitcher’s park, or on the other side of the aisle as a hitter’s park, we have the opportunity to build a team a certain way to take advantage of the dimensions 81 times a year, because we are the only team that play in our environment 81 times a year.[“]
• Matthew Boyd has refined a few pitches.
Harris casts it a different way. He says the Tigers are bringing in a different version of Boyd.
“I think there are some elements of his game that have developed and improved since he left,” Harris said. “I worked with him firsthand on that in San Francisco, and I think he flashed some of the adjustments he made when he pitched in Seattle. If you go back and watch any of those outings, I think you can see changes to individual pitches, to his attack plan and some slight changes to his mechanics that are helping his stuff play up. All those things and many more attracted us to Matt.”
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He developed a better understanding of his fastball, which he is now unafraid to fire atop the zone. He seems confident his slider — the one that generated a 43.6 whiff rate in 2019 — can return to its form as a dominant putaway option.
Most importantly, Boyd said the changeup he was beginning to hone the last time we saw him in Detroit has continued its improvement.
On the fastball being back, it is. The 2022 version comps to the 2019 and 2021 versions.
The slider doesn’t comp, but it’s still nasty.
As for the changeup, it’s the same one he has always had.
It seems like there was a lot of fluff in the article and everyone should expect more of the same from Boyd.
White Sox
• Lucas Giolito is working on the faults in his delivery.
While Giolito said he searched endlessly for answers in his delivery during the season’s second half with pitching coaches Ethan Katz, Curt Hasler and assistant director of baseball operations Rod Larson, “it’s hard to implement a whole new routine and program in the middle of the season,” and he was just battling with what he had down the stretch. When the biomechanical readout was complete, Giolito said he and his personal team saw a host of spots in his delivery where his body was “not firing correctly.” And now that he’s not competing every five days or even throwing off a mound at this point in the winter, overhauling his faults has his full focus.
National League
Diamondbacks
• Zac Gallen is not making a single change this offseason.
MLB.com: Anything in particular you want to work on this offseason? I know you’re always tinkering with things between starts.
Gallen: I don’t have anything in particular right now that I can think of.
Good.
Dodgers
• More reports of the Dodgers using a closer by committee this year.
But while the Dodgers likely won’t look for a set closer their only option with a track record finishing games is Daniel Hudson, who will be coming off a torn ACL.
Giants
• Brandon Crawford could play either second or third base.
Crawford could be a lefty-hitting complement at third base to J.D. Davis, Wilmer Flores or David Villar. He could do the same at second base in tandem with Thairo Estrada. He could address what had become a pressing need for a versatile, left-handed hitting infielder, especially now that Tommy La Stella’s defensive limitations will be impossible to hide with the crackdown on infield shifts.
Crawford’s knee was finally healthy by the season’s end.
Crawford’s knee improved in the second half last season following a stint on the injured list, and the difference was noticeable in the field. On the Giants’ second-to-last road trip to Arizona and Colorado, Crawford collected a nonstop highlight reel of diving plays, off-balance throws, brilliant reactions and sprinting catches.
Maybe his defense was better, but he posted a .654 OPS (.091 ISO) in September. He never rebounded.
Marlins
• Avisaíl García admits not being in good shape last season.
“Avi is one of those guys that’s not happy about how his season went,” Schumaker said at last week’s Winter Meetings. “He felt like he wasn’t in shape enough to play a full season and came in not ready like he should have been.[“]
Mets
• Brandon Nimmo plans on stealing more bases.
Nimmo, 29, is already one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball. He finished 2022 with 102 runs scored and a .367 on-base percentage, but wants to triple his stolen base output. Nimmo’s career high in that department is nine, which came in 2018. During his seven-year career in the big leagues, Nimmo has stolen 23 bases in 37 attempts.
The reason for so few attempts? The team wanted to keep him on the field.
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“Because of our science department, we have a little bit more information,” Nimmo said. “The guy in center field usually [has] a higher load … throughout the year. [The Mets said], ‘Let’s make sure that I remain in center field and I’m in the leadoff spot every day.’ … It was more of, let’s stay on the field and let’s make sure we take care of the defense in center field and the offense from the leadoff spot. That’s where the team really wanted me to help out.”
About time.
• Kodai Senga probably won’t be able to go on a five day normal rotation.
That said, before they signed Senga, Showalter made the comment that the star pitcher from Japan was kind of like a Friday night pitcher in college baseball because he pitched just once a week. With the Mets, there’s also the age concern about their rotation. So, in theory, there’s some sense in using a six-man rotation. But they don’t have to; they can always skip starts, give extra days of rest, piggyback starts, etc., if Senga needs time to adjust to the increased workload or if someone ends up dealing with something.
The solution is not obvious with a couple of Hall-of-Famers likely wanting to throw every five days.
Nationals
• The team guaranteed Trevor Williams a spot in the rotation.
But Williams clarified Tuesday there isn’t much ambiguity when it comes to his role for 2023: He signed to start every fifth day, which he did exclusively for the Pirates from ’17-20. Speaking with the local media for the first time Tuesday on a Zoom call, Williams called the opportunity to transition back into a full-time starter the driving force in his decision to sign with Washington.
Padres
• For now, it seems like Nick Martinez and Adrian Morejon are slotted into the rotation.
Starting pitchers
Best bet for Opening Day: Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Nick Martinez, Adrian Morejon
Pirates
• Vince Velasquez plans on starting next season.
“We are happy to bring Vince into our starting pitching group,” Cherington said. “He has a starter’s repertoire and we are looking forward to working with him and watching him start games in black and gold.”
Here are the pitches he threw last season.
Pitch: SwStr%, GB%
Four-seamer: 12%, 27%
Curve: 10%, 45%
Change: 16%, 53%
Slider: 14%, 36%
Sinker: 2%, 55%
That curve is worthless since it doesn’t miss bats or generate weak contact. He loves to throw it though.
I could see some repertoire improvement, but if he throws one curve during Spring Training, I’m out. At that point, he’s just being stubborn and accepts being a career replacement-level pitcher with a 5.00 ERA.
Reds
• Alexis Díaz is expected to be the closer.
For the first time since 2020, the Reds have a closer. David Bell may not want to call Díaz his closer … but Díaz is his closer. Or should be his closer.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Jorge Mateo probably stays at SS for the Orioles. He is an excellent fielder.
Gunnar to 3B full-time (barring platoon issues) and some reps at SS is most likely what happens and what Hyde means when Urias can play anywhere.