Mining the News (10/7/24)

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October 7, 2024

Free Agents

• Tomoyuki Sugano and…

Right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, the most successful Japanese pitcher of his generation to have spent his whole career in Nippon Professional Baseball, will come to Major League Baseball as an international free agent this winter, sources told ESPN.

Sugano, who turns 35 in a week, is in the midst of a renaissance season that has seen him post a 1.67 ERA over 24 starts for the Central League champion Yomiuri Giants. He is a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award — the equivalent of the Cy Young — two-time Central League MVP and four-time ERA champion, and his reemergence paved the way for him to finally reach MLB.

…Shinnosuke Ogasawara plan to be posted this offseason.

Left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara is looking to move to the majors, and as per a report from Yahoo Sports Japan (Japanese language link), he’ll ask the Chunichi Dragons to make him available to MLB teams via the posting system this offseason. The Yakyu Cosmopolitan also reported earlier this year that Ogasawara was aiming to pitch for a big league team in 2025, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported (via X) back in April that Major League scouts were watching Ogasawara pitch in Japan.

While the pair are eight years apart in age, their production last season was similar making their comps similar when comparing them to other pitchers coming from Japan to the States.

Both starters project to about an 8 K/9, 3 BB/9, and 1 HR/9. These numbers are almost identical to Luis Severino (8.0 K/9, 3.0, BB/9, and 1.1 HR/9). According to a player rater, Severino produced as the 87th-best starting pitcher.

American League

Angels

• Anthony Rendon won’t be given the starting third base job.

“When Anthony has played, he hasn’t been productive,” Minasian said. “He’s going to have to come in and earn it. There are no handouts. We’re starting to create some depth. … The best players are going to play.”

• Chase Silseth and José Soriano should be healthy by Spring Training.

It is likely the Angels will tender contracts to Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval and José Suarez, three arbitration-eligible pitchers who struggled in 2024. Sandoval will likely miss most of 2025 after having Tommy John surgery. That said, those decisions have not fully been made yet. Pitchers Chase Silseth (elbow) and José Soriano (arm fatigue) are expected to be fully healthy in spring training.

Astros

• Zach Dezenzo is working on his swing.

Dezenzo said he’s working to get in better spots with his swing and finding consistency in his load, while sticking to his approach and not giving in to what pitchers are trying to get him to do.

Athletics

• Brent Rooker had right forearm surgery.

Since Rooker throws with his right arm and the last time he played in the outfield was on May 30th, I’m guessing the injury happened around then.

• The team will play on an artificial surface in Sacramento over the next three seasons.

Forst believed Sutter Health Park would continue to have an artificial playing surface during the Athletics’ tenure, though no renovation work has started on the field itself in preparation for 2025.

Blue Jays

• Yariel Rodríguez should throw 145 to 160 innings next season.

Rodríguez will finish the season with a 4.47 ERA and 85 strikeouts over 86 2/3 innings. Add his time in Triple-A Buffalo, and that workload climbs up to 107 innings, which is a fine place to be given where he started the year, especially if he continues to build up as a member of this rotation.

“I don’t want to put a number on him for next year, but you can add 40-50 [innings] to that pretty easily,” manager John Schneider said, “with how he is in age, athleticism, all of that stuff. This is what we were targeting this year.”

Rays

• The team wants to upgrade their catcher position.

The Rays’ catchers hit a combined .194/.272/.291 this year, with a .563 OPS that ranked third-worst in baseball. Neander praised Ben Rortvedt for his work, spoke highly of September callup Logan Driscoll and raved about No. 13 prospect Dominic Keegan, who is expected to start next season in Triple-A.

But it’s clearly a spot the Rays want — and need — to improve.

“We’ve got to find a way to be better back there, without question, and that’ll be a priority in terms of where our mental energy goes throughout this winter,” Neander said.

One interesting note on Keegan, one of his top Steamer comps is Rortvedt.

Red Sox

• Garrett Whitlock accepts he may need to move to the bullpen to stay healthy.

As Whitlock works his way back in hopes of a healthier 2025 season, Cotillo notes that after years of both the righty and the Red Sox believing he was a long-term rotation piece for the club, Whitlock is now more focused on staying healthy.

“Honestly, I’ve told them, whatever can keep me healthy (is the best role),” Whitlock said yesterday, as relayed by Cotillo. “That’s where I’m at. We’re going to dive in with medical and see where that goes.”

If Boston brass and Whitlock believe that a move to the bullpen could help keep the righty healthier going forward, that would add a potential high-leverage arm to the club’s mix that could help them to make up for the impending losses of Jansen and Martin.

National League

Braves

• Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider might not be ready to contribute by Opening Day.

Cardinals

• Nolan Arenado will cut back on his training to keep from wearing out.

Working, without overdoing it, will be the key, Arenado said.

“I’m getting older, and I can’t just hit all day anymore; this year I did hit a lot and that probably hurt me, but I wasn’t playing well, and it doesn’t sit well with me to sit and do less when I’m playing at a [lesser] level,” he said.

“I have a lot of work to do this offseason, and I truly believe in my heart that I can get back to slugging. That’s all I’m thinking about.”

Cubs

• The pitching coach doesn’t believe in preset bullpen roles based on the previous season’s production.

For one, pitching coach Tommy Hottovy doesn’t believe that having a closer is the only way to success. He’d prefer they not be too stubborn at the start of the season about placing relievers in certain roles based on previous performance.

“We actually get ourselves in trouble sometimes (by) saying, ‘This guy is going to pitch this inning, and this guy is going to pitch this inning,’” Hottovy said. “Ideally, in a perfect world where everyone is healthy, feeling well and pitching well, that’s what we want to do. But it doesn’t always work out that way.”

Diamondbacks

• Ketel Marte played through an ankle sprain to end the season.

Marte tried to plow through an ankle injury sustained after Phillies catcher Garrett Stubbs dove past second base and into his leg on Aug. 10. Marte was removed from two games after collapsing in the batter’s box and was eventually placed on the injured list for more than two weeks with a high ankle sprain.

Dodgers

• Miguel Rojas is playing through an adductor strain.

Padres

• Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 will have surgery to repair his right labrum.

Ha-Seong Kim — who can hit free agency this offseason — announced on Saturday before the Padres’ 5-0 victory over the D-backs at Chase Field that he will have season-ending surgery on a “small tear” in the labrum in his right shoulder. That injury has kept him out since he sustained it in mid-August while diving back into first base in Colorado.

Pirates

• David Bednar could be the closer again.

David Bednar was at the center of the bullpen’s struggles for most of the year, but Cherington gave him a vote of confidence, saying that he thought “Bednar could be our closer next year.”

Bednar was removed from the closer role for the final month of the season as he trudged through a campaign where he finished with a 5.77 ERA and seven blown saves in his 30 chances. Injuries were a recurring theme for him all season — missing almost all of Spring Training and then a stint from mid-June to mid-July — and while Cherington didn’t know if that impacted his overall results, he believes the sample size of relievers can be small and skewed.
…
“The pitch qualities are there,” Cherington said. “He knows they’re there, which probably helps him feel good. It also probably frustrates him, given that he knows they’re there and he couldn’t solve this. It’s a tiny sample, and that’s really dangerous.

“I did feel like the last few outings of September were pretty encouraging from our perspective. He’s got some ideas on how to get after his offseason in a way that sets him up even better.”

• Jared Jones plans on refining his curve and changeup.

It wasn’t all bad down the stretch, either. After leaning almost exclusively on his fastball and slider in the first half, Jones mixed in more curveballs in the second, and it shows promise for being a genuine third pitch.

“It’s going to be good for next year,” Jones said. “I felt like against some teams, I went fastball-slider and just sprinkled in a really bad curveball and really bad changeup. Getting some fine details down on those other two pitches, it will be better for next year.”

The results on the change and curve weren’t great but their shapes have promise when looking at comps.

A Wheeler curve and Cole change would be sexy.

• Paul Skenes won’t have any workload limits next season.

Reds

• Rhett Lowder should be a member of the 2025 rotation to start the season.

Regardless of how he performed on Saturday vs. the Cubs, Reds rookie starting pitcher Rhett Lowder already made his case for next year. At minimum, it meant that an inside lane should be carved out for Lowder in the battle to make the 2025 rotation.

“I think he’s shown it’s a very good possibility that he could be on the staff next year,” interim manager Freddie Benavides said before the game at Wrigley Field. “The way he’s gone about his business, his professionalism, his work, learning a lot from the guys here, he’s holding his own. The guy was just in college last year. He’s pitching at the Major League level and having some success.”





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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