Mining Jeff’s Thoughts

 

Note: I needed to write an article and dig through early season information. Here are some notes by team … sort of.

With several sources discussing exit velocity gainers, it’s time to look at what matters. A few years ago in The Athletic, Rob Arthur found the following:

That precision makes it useful. It turns out that the hardest-hit batted ball a player strikes is enough on its own to predict whether a player will outperform their PECOTA projection.

For every mile per hour above 108, a hitter is projected to gain about 6 points of OPS relative to their predicted number.

Using the batters MaxEV from the past three seasons, here are the guys who have set a new high over 108 mph.

American League

Rays

• Jake Mangum and Kameron Misner started for three straight games. Rob Silver did not have this on his bingo card. Both are hitting so far, Mangum with a 1.485 OPS and Misner at a .976 OPS. There is much skepticism around the since both aren’t highly regarded prospects being in the late 20’s of our preseason team ranking. The DepthChart projection thinks Mangum will be a league average hitter (101 wRC+) with Misner a bit worse (92 wRC+). Neither of their Steamer600 comps lists are impressive.

If I pick one between the two, take Mangum in points leagues or if needing speed (3 SB so far). If a team needs power, go with Misner (17 HR in ’24, 21 HR in ’23).

Tigers

• With the bullpen fully rested on Monday, Tyler Holton and Will Vest pitched the sixth inning, with Brant Hurter going the rest of the way with a three-inning save. On Tuesday, Beau Brieske pitched the seventh, Will Vest the eighth, and Tommy Kahnle the ninth for the Save. Nothing has cleared up.

White Sox

• If I squint hard enough, I can find ways to be interested in Shane Smith even if he walked more batters than he struck out (38% Ball%, equiv to 3.6 BB/9) in his first start. The walks could be an issue (2.8 BB/9 in ’24, 3.2 BB/9 in ’23), but I like the strikeout upside.

Both of our STUPH models rate him as just below average with his slider and curve dragging down his grade (might have a plus fastball and slider). I agree on the curve not being a solid pitch but by looking at comps on the slider, it could play up.

Key for Upside: Find more of the plate, drop the curve, and get traded to another team.

National League

Brewers

• I examined Chad Patrick’s start, and he’s ignorable at this point with a 5.6% SwStr%. The STUPH models aren’t a fan, especially with his 40% Ball% (equiv to 4.3 BB/9). Finally, he’s a fly ball pitcher (19% GB% so far), so the home runs will be a part of his game.

Key for Upside: throw strikes.

Cardinals

• Matthew Liberatore returned to the rotation with a nearly identical repertoire. That pitch mix has led to subpar production over the years (career 4.97 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 7.4 K/9). In the first game, at least he didn’t walk anyone with a 31% Ball% (equiv of 1.7 BB/9).

Key for Upside: Find some way to get better.

Padres

• Kyle Hart 하트 is going to be living on the edge with a 91-mph fastball. The STUPH models and my pitch comps are not fans. On the result side, his changeup did generate six swings-and-misses in 20 pitches. Maybe Hart will be the next Jamie Moyer, but the chances of a soft-tossing, changeup-dominant starter being fantasy-relevant is rare.

Key for Upside: Increase velocity and/or find another plus secondary pitch.

Pirates

• Carmen Mlodzinski can put the ball on the ground (61% GB% in ST, 62% in the first game) and throws hard (97 mph fastball). The problem is that he walks too many batters with a career 3.9 BB/9 in 90 IP. His previous major league success has been out of the bullpen.

Key for Upside: Throw strikes

Reds

• Carson Spiers threw the kitchen sink at the Rangers, and the outcome was acceptable (1 ER in 5 IP). I like his potential if he’d drop the sinker. All of his other pitches are better than 4.00 ERA offerings, except the sinker.

He threw it 21 times in his first start and didn’t generate one swing-and-miss. He has a cutter and four-seamer to fill up the strike zone.

Key for Upside: Ditch the sinker.

• Brady Singer “added” a four-seamer and cutter. He has tinkered with both in the past, but he’s with a new club so here are the comps for the two new pitchers and his s(t)inker.

The sinker is by far his worse offering with the cutter being an improvement. It’ll be interesting to see how he uses these three fastballs in future starts.

Key for Upside: Move away from the sinker.