Mike Moustakas Heads North to Milwaukee

The non-waiver trade deadline is almost upon us! So far, it’s been relatively uneventful, but there was one big name that was on the move — the Moose himself, Mike Moustakas. The Brewers traded some of their outfield depth for about two months of Moustakas to boost their chances of making the playoffs. Let’s compare the relevant park factors to to determine how much this change in home parks could impact his performance.

The first thing that may jump out to you is how similar these parks actually played last season. They both sport perfectly neutral singles factors, the batted ball factors are all within two points of each other, and the five year overall factor is identical. I’m betting that’s a surprise to most, as it certainly was to me.

Kauffman Stadium is a bit more favorable to lefties for doubles and significantly more for triples. Moustakas isn’t a big doubles guy, so that factor won’t affect him much. He has also hit just five triples in his entire career, so the lower triples factor in Milwaukee isn’t going to matter either.

The most dramatic effect is going to come from what you thought — homers. Last year, Miller Park was tied as the second best park for left-handed home runs, while Kauffman ranked fifth to last. That’s a gigantic swing in home run park factors! Since Moustakas has been a life-long Royal, we could look at his career HR/FB rate splits during home games vs away games to get an idea if his home park really hampered his home run totals.

Sure enough, it appears that Kauffman did hinder his power, as his career HR/FB rate at home was 9.8%, compared to 12% in away parks. His current season HR/FB rate has declined from his high teen marks the last two years, so the move to Miller could help fuel a rebound over the final two months.

What’s rarely discussed is a park’s effect on walks and strikeouts. Not only does Kauffman impede home run power, but it has already reduced strikeouts. Moustakas has actually posted strong strikeout rates for a power hitter throughout his career, just once posting a mark above 16.1%. That’s pretty impressive. Miller Park slightly inflates strikeouts, but the difference between the two parks isn’t all that significant.

Aside from the park switch, which because of the homers, looks favorable for Moustakas, he’ll be joining a much better offensive cast. The Brewers haven’t exactly been great this year, as they rank just ninth in the NL in wOBA and 19th overall with a .314 mark, but the Royals have been pathetic, ranking last in the AL and second to last in baseball with a .296 mark. The better surrounding cast should boost his plate appearances, opportunities to knock in runners, and chances to score, all resulting in an increase in counting stats.

Even more exciting is that the Brewers already had a third baseman in Travis Shaw, so the acquisition means one of the two could earn some starts at second base. If Shaw can’t handle the position, Moustakas could give it a shot, and perhaps it’ll gain him eligibility at the position. Having that multi-position eligibility could boost his fantasy value even higher.

Overall, this was a good move for Moustakas’ fantasy value over the rest of the season.