Mike Minor Should Be Fine Down The Stretch

Mike Minor’s 4.95 ERA certainly does not look impressive, neither does his league leading 23 home runs allowed. What does look impressive is his 3.15 ERA over his past 11 starts, and it certainly looks like he has started to turn a corner.

I wrote over at Capitol Avenue Club about Minor’s increased usage of his breaking balls, and how he also succeeded last year when he upped the frequency of his slider and curveball. Last year, when he decided to rely more heavily on the breaking balls he finished the season with a 3.83 ERA over nine starts with a 51-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This year, his ERA over his past 11 starts — when he upped his combined breaking ball frequency to 26.7% from 22.9% he has posted the aforementioned 3.15 ERA with a 53-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Those 11 starts have come since the start of June. When you take his starts from July to now, which is the smaller sample size of six starts compared to 11, Minor has a 2.13 ERA with 32-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has thrown at least six innings in every start aside from a rained shorten 3.2 inning outing against the Marlins last week.

Most people are wise to the fact that Minor has been performing well of late, but many are still skeptical about him reverting to his early season form. There is a lot of risk in targeting Minor via trade, but there is a good opportunity to buy him at a discount even with his most recent sterling performances. Could you have acquired him a few weeks ago at a lower cost? Certainly, but you also would have been taking a bigger risk since you would not have seen his NL Pitcher of the Month level performance in July and would have been banking on improved performance before seeing it.

Keep in mind that although he has pitched in parts of three seasons with Atlanta, that Minor is still just 24-years-old and was drafted the same season as Stephen Strasburg. He is still young and still developing, so noted improvements in his performance and his sequencing are expected as he continues to earn more starts in the majors. He has now started roughly a season and a half worth of games with a career SIERA of 3.93. Is that tremendous given that most of his starts have come in a pitcher friendly era? No, but it also suggests that he’s a pretty solid pitcher who is capable of being much better than he has been.

The Braves are reaping the benefits of sticking with Minor as they battle for a playoff hunt, and fantasy owners are reaping similar benefits. With great performances over the past two months, specifically over the last month plus, Minor is a solid trade target in all leagues. The cost may be higher, but I would pay more for a little bit more certainty and so should you.