Midseason 3B Rank Assessment

José Ramírez is the only third baseman so far in 2025 to post positive value in each traditional roto category. That’s incredible, and it’s the reason J-Ram is in the mix as the best third baseman in the league every single season. Manny Machado isn’t a base-stealer, but he’s returned positive value in every other category. Junior Caminero, Rafael Devers, Eugenio Suárez, and Isaac Paredes are the third basemen with three positive value categories:

Each of these players had a great first half and has probably made the fantasy managers’ rostering them have great first halves as well. Swap Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in for Isaac Paredes, and you’re looking at the top six third basemen at the half. Which of these, if any, surprises you? In this article, I compare my third base preseason rank predictions with mid-year actuals.

NOTE: data reflects games played through Sunday, July 20th.

My final preseason 3B rank (Pre_Rank, x-axis) vs. a mid-year actual rank (Curr_Rank, y-axis) created by the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with the same settings as used when creating my 3B preseason ranks.

The Overperformers

Eugenio Suárez – Pre-Rank: 19, Curr-Rank: 2

As it stands right now (.257), Suárez is holding his best batting average since 2019’s .271. That year, he hit 49 home runs, and he’s on track to meet that mark again this season. His 15.3% barrel rate and 51.5% HardHit rate both currently sit as his best-ever season marks. That has led to some impressive power numbers beyond the 36 home runs he’s put up so far. He’s slugging .605 (.540 xSLG) and his wOBA is well over average at .391 (.364 xwOBA). Beyond the power, his K% has decreased slightly. That has simply given his batting average more opportunity.

Will it continue? There are some indicators that things may slow down over the course of the second half. For example, he’s putting the ball in the air over 50% of the time, and his HR/FB ratio is at 27.1%. League average HR/FB is 11.5% which tells us either he’s hitting the ball so hard that nothing can stop it from flying out, or he’s caught the wind a few times. Certainly, his skills (Barrel%, HardHit%, EV, etc.) back up the power, so it wouldn’t be wise to completely buy in on a huge downward spiral. Still, let’s compare Suárez’s HR/FB and FB% with some other HR leaders:

When compared with other sluggers, Suárez’s numbers seem normal. Good things happen when you hit the ball in the air that hard. One last thing to point out is Suárez’s 7.3 run value on sliders in 2025. It’s something he’s struggled with in past seasons. He’s only ever posted an end-of-season positive run value on the pitch once (2015).

Maikel Garcia – Pre-Rank: 22, Curr-Rank: 7

At only 25 years old, his preseason projections had a little less to work with. He’s already eclipsed his seven-homer mark from last season, and it was that lack of power that made him fall in the preseason 20s. But power has come, and Garcia’s slugging percentage (.446 SLG, .444 xSLG) is the product of an increased HardHit% (44.5%) and his speed. Still, it seems that Garcia has focused more on improving his power than on making contact and using speed to get to first base. He’s putting the ball in the air more often (FB%: 37.3%, LA: 9.7), pulling more often (Pull%: 37.6%), and he’s not sacrificing contact to do it (93.5% Z-Contact%).

Max Muncy – Pre-Rank: 30, Curr-Rank: 13

Muncy’s K% of 21.9% is the lowest mark he’s posted since 2021’s 20.3%. This has resulted in a .250 batting average, which has allowed his overall value to balance out. Muncy has improved his in-zone contact while posting improved barrel rates and hard hit rates. His only positive category value is coming from his RBI totals, and playing for the Dodgers has helped. I was down on Muncy because I thought his K% would only get worse, along with his batting average, but that hasn’t been the case:

Josh Smith – Pre-Rank: 42, Curr-Rank: 19

Josh Smith had a solid, arguably breakout-worthy campaign in 2024. But, there were indicators that good luck was on his side. He finished the year with a decent .258/.337/.394 slash line, but it didn’t seem worthy of a top-20 preseason rank going into 2025. Then, he stood out in spring training. Then, he played much more often than expected. Now, his bat has been so good he’s hitting as a leadoff DH at the top of the Texas Rangers’ lineup. He’s striking out less, walking more often, and getting to the barrel to the ball more, though his Barrel% is still a low 5.0%. It’s difficult to determine what, if any, big skills changes he’s made in 2025; he’s been reliant on good batted ball outcomes as he’s sprayed singles all over the field, but they’ve fallen for hits and turned in good results in the first half.

José Caballero – Pre-Rank: 40, Curr-Rank: 23

It’s the stolen bases! Caballero was expected to be a one-category player, and that he has been in 2025. His 11.2% BB% is one of his only saving skill sets, as his batting average is a crazy low .218, and he’s striking out over 30% of the time. Still, he’s on pace to match his 44 stolen bases from 2024, and if he can keep getting at-bats against lefties, he should hold his value in the top 30s thanks to his base-running skills.

The Underperformers

Mark Vientos – Pre-Rank: 7, Curr-Rank: 66

Ranking Vientos at seven after the 2024 season felt a little risky, I’ll admit. I even noted my hesitancy:

…plenty of reasons to predict a regression in 2025 as Steamer has with a .248/.314/.468 slash line projection…a well-below-average zone contact rate, a near-30% K%, struggles hitting sliders, struggles (some) against same-handed pitchers, and a high BABIP (.324).

Still, I justified ranking him so high due to the power potential. So far, Vientos’s 2025 slash line is an unflattering .222/.275/.351 with only six home runs hit. The 24 days he spent on the IL had him out for the second half of June and didn’t help his cause. In his return, things still aren’t going great. He’s slashed .229/.229/.313 in July but has cut down on strikeouts. All of that is a challenge when his teammate Brett Baty has slugged .431 on the year and seems capable of holding down third base defensively. In a mid-July “Mining the News”, Jeff Zimmerman wrote…

 It’s tough to know what’s going on with the DH since Jesse Winker and Starling Marte are on the IL. Mark Vientos got the first opportunity at DH with Brett Baty at third base and Luisangel Acuña at second base.

…and that still is the case as August gets near. It’s a wonder whether Vientos has made some approach adjustments in hopes of striking out less. It’s working to bring his K% down; he’s making much better zone contact, though it’s still below average, and his expected batting average is higher than what he’s produced, but his barrel rate has been cut in half. He’s also pulling the ball less often, and his HR/FB% is 9.2% compared to last season’s 26.5%. It will be interesting to see what happens if he starts to get in a groove with this new approach. The injury came at a bad time, and now I’m sure he and the Mets are getting antsy.

Royce Lewis – Pre-Rank: 17, Curr-Rank: 89

We’ve always waited and hoped and prayed for health for Lewis, but have never gotten it. It’s the reason his preseason rank was 17th, even though his talent level is top-10, arguably top-five. So far in 2025, he’s been on the IL twice, both times for a strained hamstring. Jay Jaffe detailed the bad luck Lewis was hitting into in early June, but that was after only playing 20 games in May. He only made it through half of June before being back on the IL, so it was tough to determine if his luck would turn or if the injury was causing the poor performance. Poor performance, in Lewis’ case, can be measured in his 2025 slash line, but that just isn’t fair considering his expected stats:

AVG: .233, xAVG: .285

SLG: .360, xSLG: .483

wOBA: .288, xwOBA: .353

There are plenty of fringe-level major leaguers who would kill to have Lewis’s 10.9% barrel rate, or 45.3% HardHit%, or 89.8% Z-Contact rate, but the results haven’t come for the Twins third baseman this year. As I write, it is July 22nd, and Lewis was activated from his most recent IL stint on July 1st. How’s he doing from July 1st on? Much, much better. His slash line in that time sits at .294/.315/.471, and he’s hit two home runs. If he’s available in your league, now is the time to pick him up.

Jeimer Candelario – Pre-Rank: 26, Curr-Rank: 140

After only 22 games played for the Reds in 2025, Candelario hit the IL with a back injury at the end of April. It was a rough start to the season, as he slashed .113/.198/.213. Looking back on what I wrote before the season began has me wondering if this is even the same player:

Jeimer Candelario is projected for 580 plate appearances in 2025, but he hasn’t hit that mark since 2021. Still, in 2025 he’ll be on the second year of a 45M dollar contract, so playing time should only be hampered by injury. He’s not the .271 hitter he was in 2021, but he’s put up back-to-back seasons with 20+ home runs and is hitting in the “Great American Small Park” most of the time.

Apparently, that contract wasn’t enough to keep him not hitting for the Reds. He rehabbed from injury with the team, was activated on June 23rd, but was then designated for assignment a few days later, never getting the chance to rejoin the Reds lineup. He cleared waivers at the end of June and was signed by the Yankees, but has not yet made it back to the big leagues. He’s slashed .175/.214/.225 at AAA in nine games. This was somewhat foreseeable, I suppose:

But “somewhat” doesn’t explain the huge dropoff Candelario experienced at the end of June last season. There’s no hope of Candelario meeting my 26th rank expectations at this point.

Jose Miranda – Pre-Rank: 31, Curr-Rank: 118

Miranda started the year with the big league squad but did not hit in his first 36 plate appearances (.167/.167/.250) before being demoted to AAA. He’s been there ever since, fighting with an injured hand, and slashing only .180/.241/.300 in July.

Matt Vierling – Pre-Rank: 35, Curr-Rank: 125

Vierling has struggled with injury in 2025. He’s had a healthy stretch in July but is still only slashing .200/.349/.229 in the month. He’s struggled tremendously against righties and is in a platoon.