Michael Cuddyer to the Mets: Fantasy Impact
Michael Cuddyer and the Mets have kicked off the offseason, agreeing to a two-year contract.
Cuddyer spent the last three seasons in Colorado, and it did wonderful things for the right-hander; Cuddyer only managed to play in 49 games in 2014, but he was so productive while on the field that he was nearly a replacement-level outfielder in standard leagues. A healthy Cuddyer in Coors was excellent, but Citi Field isn’t as kind. Coors is consistently the best park in baseball for hitters, but Citi Field is about 10 percentage points worse in right-handed HR park factors, and far worse in terms of singles and doubles. The good news is that playing in New York should be easier than Cuddyer’s time in Minnesota, where he hit 66 homers over his final three seasons with the Twins. Cuddyer was still around his prime then, but at least we have a sample of his skills outside of paradise.
Barring a surprising move over the next few months, the Mets signed Cuddyer to man the outfield, while also taking some time from Lucas Duda at first against left-handed pitchers. Cuddyer is already eligible in the outfield in all formats, but will only be eligible at first in Yahoo! leagues for the time being. First base eligibility isn’t exactly valuable, but it does provide some flexibility that can be useful when platooning players in daily leagues. Like while in Colorado, Cuddyer will likely hit in the middle of the order, and will surrounded by solid bats in David Wright, David Murphy, and Duda. Cuddyer will have plenty of RBI chances when on the field.
While the Mets were likely to sign an outfielder anyway, the move officially takes away any chance that Matt den Dekker had of starting opening day. Cuddyer’s clear history of injuries does open up the possibility of plenty of time as the season goes on, but there’s not going to be much use in picking anyone up before Cuddyer actually goes down.
Going across the country, the loss of Cuddyer clears up the Rockies glut of outfielders. Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Corey Dickerson are now set to take the field without competition — aside from Drew Stubbs in platoon situations.
Cuddyer’s move hurts his roto value, but you should be more concerned with his age and injury history. Cuddyer is a clear draft pick in NL-only and standard leagues; how much you pay for him will depend on your comfort with risk. Cuddyer was a $22 OF while playing 130 games in 2013 — a high number to project in 2015, since he’s managed it just once in the last three years. Aging and Cuddyer’s new park will dip that ceiling, so paying more than $15 for the 36-year-old’s services in standard leagues is not recommended, while paying $12 or less is preferred.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
What do you see Cuddy’s slash-line as a Met?
I have him around .265/.330/.440 over 90 games. Steamer says .262/.322/.425.
He was a .272/.343/.451 hitter in Minnesota through his prime. My longer (non-fantasy) look is here http://thereadzone.com/2014/10/23/on-a-team-desperate-for-somebody-who-can-hit-lefties-michael-cuddyer-is-a-decent-gamble-for-mets/
For what it is worth, 1B was crazy thin last year (at least in my 16 team league). I had to stream in Cron, Teix, Rua, and Posey (using Ianetta at C on those doese) among others when Votto when down.
I mean, I can’t even believe how stupid the Mets ownership is. Cuddyer was a good to very good hitter in his prime; he got one year of mash stats as a past-his-prime player in Colorado, and now there’s the double whammy of being on the exponential downside end of the performance curve AND moving to one of the least batter-friendly parks on the planet. He’s shown himself to be injury prone, and roaming the large OF space at CitiField is only likely to increase the likelihood of injury. And for this the Mets lock up $21M over two years?
The Mets aren’t going to the playoffs in the next two years, even with their marvelous young pitching. This is just stupid. I’ll say Steamer is about right–maybe even a little high on the slugging–and take the under on 125 games.
I am not suggesting the Mets made a great move, but Cuddyer is a reasonably good player and the Mets are not paying him much money. If they get even 1.5 WAR/year from Cuddyer (which seems likely) they won’t be overpaying. Cuddyer will platoon at 1B with Duda, which will limit his OF innings a bit. Plus, the OF fences are moving in (again) at Citi Field, which should help Cuddyer on offense and defense.
It is absurd to write off the Mets as playoff contenders at this point. They were in the hint in 2014, and this year they will get their best pitcher back.
The Cuddyer signing suggests to me that the Mets have another free agent (who turned down a QO) in mind. Losing your 1st round pick for Cuddyer seems like a hit, but now they can sign (e.g.) Scherzer and only lose a 2nd round pick.
Well, it’s not as dumb as signing Granderson, I’ll give you that…the problem is that I’ve seen no evidence that the Mets have a plan. Maybe as you say that have another FA in mind, and in 6 months we’ll be blown away by the genius here. But at the moment, it feels more like King Kong swatting at the airplanes.
The mets have a rotation of Harvey degroom wheeler niese colon syndergaard gee etc. sounds like a plan to me. That is comparable to the cubs list of young hitters
Surely it’s Daniel Murphy you mean, unless I’ve missed another move.
He is a $1 guy now
waiver wire fodder
Anytime a player comes or goes from Coors his evaluation is all over place. Between the commentators and the author his value is between $0-$15. Besides leaving Coors, Cuddyer is old and injury prone which makes evaluation much harder.
There’s no reason to draft Cuddyer next year.
If you draft him, you deserve to lose.