Meet the Mariners’ New Outfield D

The 2008 Seattle Mariners were, in many ways, difficult to watch. With a payroll in excess of $100 million, the M’s managed to lose 101 ballgames. Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro were compensated handsomely to do their best Mario Mendoza impressions, and shaky fielding behind some, ahem, questionable free agent starters only made matters worse. The M’s checked in at -32.8 UZR in ’08, ranking 24th in the majors. Combine mediocre hitting, pitching and fielding, and you have a high-priced disaster.

However, those grim days may very well be in the rear view mirror. The M’s unceremoniously dumped Bill Bavasi and company, bringing in well-regarded talent procurer Jack Zduriencik, who helped draft and develop Milwaukee’s extensive list of gifted youngsters. Jack Z has wasted little time altering his roster, signing a cheap and potentially useful first base platoon (Russell Branyan and Chris Shelton) and then pulling off a mind-bending 12-player trade that netted him seven players. Among those seven are Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez, two of the rangiest outfielders in the game today.

The current Mariner’s depth chart features Chavez in left field, Gutierrez in center and Ichiro Suzuki in right. Suffice it to say, that group would go a long way toward improving Seattle’s lackluster defensive showing. Let’s see how the outfield fared in ’08 using UZR/150 (the number of runs above or below average a fielder is per 150 games) and John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system:

2008

Raul Ibanez (LF): -11 UZR/150, -18 Plus/Minus
Ichiro Suzuki (CF): 3.3 UZR/150, -9 Plus/Minus
Suzuki (RF): -0.2 UZR/150, +12 Plus/Minus
Wladimir Balentien (CF): -1.7 UZR/150, -2 Plus/Minus
Balentien (RF): -17.4 UZR, -3 Plus/Minus

I just listed the players seeing the most time in the outfield. As a team , The M’s outfield compiled:

LF: -14.9 UZR (-14.9 runs), -21 +/- (-16.8 runs)
CF: -3.4 UZR (-3.4 runs), -12 +/- (-9.6 runs)
RF: -7.2 UZR (-7.2 runs), +14 +/- (+11.2 runs)

As a whole, the M’s outfield was -25.5 runs below average by UZR and -15.2 runs by the Plus/Minus system (the big difference in RF is due to Dewan’s system liking Ichiro’s work there and UZR rating it as slightly below average).

Now, take a gander at the new-look Seattle D. For the sake of making this comparison easier, let’s assume that:
1. Chavez, Gutierrez and Suzuki all make 150 starts and play 1350 innings apiece.
2. The fielding metrics compiled by Gutierrez are docked 15% (it’s far from perfect, but it’s an attempt to account for the added difficulty of playing center), and Chavez and Suzuki play to the levels that they have shown in the corner spots during their respective careers. For Chavez, I added his equally stellar work in RF to his projection to make the sample size larger (the majority of his career has been spent in center).

LF Chavez: 20.3 UZR/150
CF Gutierrez: 18.3 UZR/150
RF Suzuki: 7.3 UZR/150

If this trio plays 150 games, they project to be nearly 46 runs above average with the leather. Compare that with the embarrassing work done by last year’s Ibanez-fueled, molasses-covered group: if the M’s get league-average defense from their extra outfielders (filling out the additional 12 game gap), that’s a swing of over 70 runs in outfield defense, or seven wins (!)

Keep Seattle’s insanely rangy outfield in mind on draft day, particularly when it comes to flyball-centric hurler Brandon Morrow (career 34.2 GB%). Great defense can make pitchers look a whole lot better, and the M’s new outfield projects to have a Tampa Bay-type turnaround in quality with three legitimate center fielders covering the gaps.