Matt Kemp Struggling To Make Contact
As of Friday morning, Matt Kemp is hitting .182/.217/.255 with zero home runs and zero stolen bases. His .207 wOBA ranks third-worst amongst qualified outfielders in all of baseball — ahead of only Aaron Hicks and David Murphy — and he currently owns a 28 wRC+ and a -0.6 WAR.
In short, he’s been dreadful, and many fantasy owners who drafted him in the first round have been limping through the month of April, waiting for Kemp to rebound and become the .362 wOBA hitter he’s been throughout his career.
Lots of speculation exists that this slump is either related to his offseason shoulder surgery or the result of a mechanical compensation from his injury last season. While Kemp has repeatedly told reporters he’s physically fine this week, the numbers indicate something has negatively changed at the plate.
His strikeout rate has ballooned out of control early this year. He’s compiled a 30.0% strikeout rate through 60 plate appearances, which is 7.1% higher than his 2012 strikeout rate. Only five qualified outfielders currently have whiffed more often. It’s his largest strikeout rate since the 2006 season, when he posted a 31.9% strikeout rate as a 21-year-old rookie with the Dodgers.
With that in mind, it should be no surprise to hear his swinging-strike rate has similarly increased to it’s highest level since 2006. Kemp owns a 15.6% swinging-strike rate and only has a 66.1% contact rate at the plate. That’s his lowest Contact% of his career, which only further highlights his significant swing-and-miss issues right now. This isn’t an issue of chasing an inordinate amount bad pitches. His O-Swing% is actually lower than it has been since 2009. Instead, the numbers indicate Kemp isn’t making enough contact at the plate to be effective — and it’s likely an outgrowth of a significant mechanical flaw in his swing.
Anthony Witrado from The Sporting News spoke with scouts about Kemp:
Scouts believe Kemp’s poor mechanics either are a result of current shoulder discomfort or were developed when it was hurt last season. He is pulling off of balls and swinging at pitches he has no chance to drive, both of which were prominent flaws in his approach last season after the injury. [Link]
Prominent flaws in his approach last season? Should we have seen warning signs from last year that something had changed with Kemp at the plate?
It may be a stretch to say fantasy owners should’ve fundamentally shifted their opinion on Kemp due to his performance last season. After all, he was dealing with an injury and still compiled an above-average 117 wRC+ in the second half. It is important to note, though, his numbers in September were quite similar to his numbers to start the 2013 season.
| Month | AVG | OBP | SLG | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September (2012) | .222 | .270 | .435 | 27.8% | 4.3% |
| April (2013) | .182 | .217 | .255 | 30.0% | 5.0% |
Of course, two months don’t trump seven previous years of production. Owners shouldn’t assume this is the new Matt Kemp. It does, however, suggest his significant struggles over the past couple weeks are not an isolated incident. Whether it’s some kind of mechanical flaw he developed late last season to compensate for his injury or simply a bad habit that has carried over, it’s certainly something owners must pay attention to.
Ultimately, the overall talent level should win out for Kemp. Players of his caliber don’t generally become terrible overnight. His updated Steamer projections have him hitting .279/.349/.490 with 25 home runs and 15 stolen bases from now through the end of the season. That’s still incredibly valuable, and fantasy owners should still remain confident enough in Matt Kemp to play him every day — even during this painful slump to begin the season.
J.P. Breen is a graduate student at the University of Chicago. For analysis on the Brewers and fantasy baseball, you can follow him on Twitter (@JP_Breen).
This dude is killing me. I blame Rihanna!
Kemp was my first rounder last year so I tracked him after his return from injury very closely. I had him on the bench for most days during the playoffs in favor of the likes of David Murphy and Yonder Alonso on most days. And while I can’t say I would not have selected him if he was still there for me at #10 this year I probably would have gone in a safer direction…he was really bad down the stretch last year and his spring training performance this year did not inspire much confidence. If he’s got to work on his mechanics he’ll be ok eventually but I’d probably be in panic mode by now if he was my first round pick this year.
I’m seriously considering trading him for Stanton
That trade seems to exchange players while keeping you in about the same place, stats-wise.
Stanton more homeruns, kemp more steals. How is that the same?
Stanton has more upside, I think.
Similar issues w/ Votto? Didn’t look himself down the stretch last year or so far this season. I know he keeps saying the knee is fine, but the SLG% really doesn’t seem to be there right now (not to mention the HR). His player page even suggests the power isn’t appearing during BP either. Probably still early and April doesn’t appear to be his best career month, but would like to see the SLG% increase w/ the accompanying RBI. The BB% is astounding, but I’m somewhat surprised pitchers aren’t challenging him a bit more ’til he proves he can do it.
Obviously nobody can really know, but are you suggesting you think those updated steamer projections are accurate? If they are, while that is still good value, it’s not really any better value than what you’d expect from guys like Adam Jones, Bryce Harper, Cespedes, and others that could’ve been had several rounds later. The truth is, because of his big name I would think it’s not too late to sell him for one of those guys plus maybe even another piece. Or maybe even somebody would think they could buy low sell high on a justin upton for kemp trade. If I’m a Kemp owner, and those projections are accurate, wouldn’t it make sense just to sell him now while most other owners are still just thinking this is a small sample size slump?
The Kemp owner in my league has been offering to sell low, and nobody is close to taking him up on it.
Kemp is as overrated as they come.
I’ve been offered Kemp for Fowler and Soler in a keeper league. I know I should probably jump on it but I’m hesitating. If I had a weak team I would definitely take the risk but my team is strong and maybe it makes sense to stand pat with Fowler even with the likelihood that what we’re seeing now isn’t his true talent. Thoughts anyone?
IMO it is well worth the risk (depending on some league rules). Fowler isn’t nearly this good. I have to imagine the only way he outperforms Kemp is due to these struggles being an on-going or future injury issue. If you pass on this and Kemp bounces back (more likely then not) you will be kicking yourself all season.
As for Soler…completely depends on the league. Is this an NL-Only keeper league? How many keepers can you have each year…how long can you keep them?
Soler isn’t likely to start for the Cubs next season IMO and even if he does…he’ll go through some struggles. Hard to imagine you would keep him over more established players (again depending on league format).
I tend to agree with you. I’m not too torn up about giving up Soler, although as we approach the trade deadline teams in this league tend to go a bit prospect crazy when they’re out of contention. (Separate minor league draft with no limit on how long you can keep a guy protected until they lose rookie status.)
What is causing me to pause is 1) the possibility that Fowler is not this good but good enough given the rest of my lineup and 2) the chance (10%? 20%?) that Kemp doesn’t rebound.
All that said I’m pretty sure I’m going to do it.
Rhiannon killed him a few years ago. Hard to focus on both playing fields. That has been over. This is residual from the shoulder and has me worried as a dodgers fan. Think he is sufficiently good to recover, however.