Matt Duffy’s Power Upside

by
November 9, 2015

I am pretty sure no one saw an eighth overall 3B ranking from the Giants Matt Duffy. Coming into 2015, he seemed to be a nice late piece in NL-only and deep leagues for the stolen bases and a decent average. The twelve home runs seemed to materialize out of nowhere. He was one of only twenty players with more than 10 HR, 10 SB, and greater than a .280 AVG in 2015. I get the feeling people don’t expect a repeat performance in 2016 and after looking over his performance I think his limited power is legit.

I will start with the easy projections, speed and batting average. The 25-year-old should be able to have a stolen base total in the low teens looking at his history.

Season: Combined SB
2012: 10
2013: 25
2014: 20
2015: 12

In a full season, I don’t see a reason he can’t have between 10-15 SB. The speed will also help him with this AVG since he will be able to beat out a few infield grounders.

As for his batting average, I project it between .275 and .305 considering his past performances.

Season (Level): AVG, PA
2012 (A-): .247, 216
2013 (A): .307, 339
2013 (A+): .292, 115
2014 (AA): .332, 417
2014 (MLB): .267, 64
2015 (MLB): .295, 612

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I don’t see his above average Contact%, and therefore K%, changing much. The only item which will be driving his AVG will be how hard he hits the ball into play.

Now it is time for the mysterious home runs. In parts of three seasons from Low-A to the majors, Duffy hit 13 total home runs in 1151 plate appearances. Then he goes off and hits 12 in the majors this year. It is just really tough to evaluate his power in detail with little to no previous MLB experience. Let me just start grouping similar players and see if a comparison emerges.

Looking at hitters with 10 to 14 HR and at least 600 PA from 2002 to 2015, here are their Hard%, HR/FB, and ISO values compared to Duffy’s values

Name: Hard%, HR/FB, ISO, BABIP
Average: 26.6%, 8.6%, .122, .313
Duffy: 28.3%, 9.4%, .133, .336

So for hitters with a full season under them and just barely hit double digit home runs, Duffy looks to be slightly better than average in his other power categories.

Looking at some batted ball data (which is a little harder to process), he measures out quite well. The twenty players with the closest HR&FB distance to Duffy’s 289 ft averaged 19.4 HR. Finally, I can combine the batted ball velocity from baseballsavant.com and a recent article I wrote and the Hardball Times on batted balls  to get some additional power estimates to see if his power was out of line.

Value: HR/600 PA, HR/FB%, ISO
Max Velo (106 mph): 11, 7.5%, .120
Avg velo (88 mph): 15, 10.7%, .147
Avg LD/FB velo (90 mph): 15.2, 10.6%, .145

Looking at all the batted ball velocity data, it seems like Duffy may have actually underperformed in the power department.

My only issue with Duffy’s power was a change from eight first-half homers to only four in the second half. I looked at Brooksbaseball.net to see if pitchers changed their approach against him. I could not find a significant change in pitches types seen or placement of pitches and feel free to judge for yourself.



After looking over Matt Duffy’s power profile, I don’t see a reason it can’t continue on to 2016. I think his 2015 production (12 HR, 12 SB and a .295 AVG) is a nice projection for the 2016 season. I could even see a little upside to his power numbers. Don’t be scared off from Duffy in 2016 and he can probably be bought at a discount.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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John
10 years ago

In a deep dynasty league would you give up Aaron Judge to acquire Matt Duffy?

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Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
10 years ago
Reply to  John

If you are all in for 2016, I would go with Duffy otherwise I would stick with Judge. I am not sure how much Judge will play in 2016, but should have a decent amount of hype around him. When Judge gets the call, you should be able to get more than Duffy in trade.

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