Mason’s Musings: Gonzaga

When I was a senior in high school, I had a number of options in front of me that I needed to make a decision on. After 9/11, I joined the U.S. Army Reserves with the belief that I would go to college to pursue my dream of playing football while being a reservist. I had a junior college that I was talking to about playing football for, I had early admittance to Sacramento State University where I could attempt to walk on their team, and I had the opportunity to go active duty in the Army. 

I didn’t love my options. I didn’t know how I would handle fulltime Army life, I didn’t want to go to a junior college and I had no idea how I would pay for college if I went to Sacramento.  I spent months agonizing over the decision. I was truly torn on what I wanted to do. My senior season of football hadn’t gone well and I was second guessing whether pursuing that path was even a wise decision. Ultimately, I decided to go active duty in the Army. I talked to my superior officers and put in my paperwork. It was a tough decision, but I was at peace with it, but then I got a letter. 

The letter was from Gonzaga University. 

In my turmoil over choosing between college football and the Army, I had looked at a number of different options early in the process. My best friend was looking at going to the University of Portland or Gonzaga and I thought it might be fun to go to the same school he was in so I went to their websites and pressed the “Inquire About Gonzaga” button. I never thought about it again until I got that letter. I didn’t know that when I opened it, it would inspire something in me for years to come. It read:

“Dear Applicant, 

Thank you for your interest in Gonzaga University. 

We regret to inform you that we were unable to offer you admission for the upcoming academic school year.”

I was confused. I had been rejected by a school that I never applied to. 

I was angry. I had already decided that I wasn’t going to college and this was rubbing salt in my wounds. I now hated Gonzaga University. It was a one-sided rivalry that I held in my heart for years. When March Madness would roll around, I would only fill out a bracket so I could pick them to lose in the first round. I would watch their games only to root against them. Even in years when I didn’t fill out a bracket, I would check the box scores to see if they lost. I couldn’t have found them on a map of Washington, but I hated them with a passion. 

In 2017, I filled out my bracket like any other year, with Gonzaga exiting the tournament in the first round. They would make it all the way to the National Championship game and finally lose there. If I had put Gonzaga in the Elite Eight, I would have won my bracket. I realized that I was being an idiot. I had let my hatred of Gonzaga cloud my judgement and make bad decisions. I decided I needed to put that hatred aside. If I was going to do a bracket, I wanted to win and I wasn’t going to win basing my picks on hate. 

This was a lesson that I already applied to fantasy baseball. If I hate a player for one reason or another, I do not let that hate override my judgement of a player if I see something that should change it. I used to be the type of fantasy manager that if I was burnt by a player once, I would write them off forever, but I now know to take the emotion out of it. I can partly thank Gonzaga University for that education, even if they rejected me. 

How do we apply this education to fantasy this season? Well, we need to go and look at players we made that have faded and dig in to see if we either made a mistake or things have changed and maybe our opinions should change along with them. Here are some players that I hated in draft season that I am reevaluating. 

Jesús Luzardo – Luzardo is struggling so far this season, throwing 22.2 innings over four starts with a 7.94 ERA. I was not in on him in draft season. He has shown over the course of his career that he struggles with consistency and while he has a ton of upside, he was also going as a top 20 starting pitcher which was too expensive for me. However, if you look under the hood, things aren’t as bad as they seem. He has gone at least five innings in three of his four starts, his velocity is right in line where it was last season, his Stuff+ numbers are great, and his walk and strikeout rates are the best of his career. He is running an extremely high BABIP and low strand rate. Ultimately, I think he will be better, you are just getting the downside of the ups and downs early. While I still would not have paid the cost of Luzardo at the draft table, I would be interested in trying to acquire him now at a discount if whoever did draft him is open to selling him. 

Ryan O’Hearn – Coming into drafts, I was concerned about O’Hearn handling the new park and being stuck in a platoon role or getting exposed versus lefties if he did play against them. O’Hearn has quietly been very good this season, hitting .333/.413/.524 with three home runs and a stolen base. He has been overshadowed by the other big Pirates acquisition this season in Brandon Lowe, but I actually buy more of what he is doing than I do Lowe. Yes, Lowe has more power, but we already knew that. What O’Hearn is doing is making great contact with some pop and raking against lefties. He was stuck in a platoon in Baltimore, but with all of the platoon worthy bats in Pittsburgh, he is being given the opportunity to show he can handle southpaws and he has responded with a .300/.348/.450 line in spite of a .263 BABIP versus lefties. It is a small sample, but given the fact that a number of Pirates have been dreadful versus lefties so far, it looks like O’Hearn will continue to get a shot there. 

José Soriano – Jose Soriano was an afterthought for me during draft season and to be honest, he was for everyone. I didn’t want to buy into what he was doing after his first couple of starts, but we do need to take notice. He is throwing the fastball more with a bit of added velocity and it is grading out better than it ever has according to Stuff+. More importantly, his command is better with it which is giving him a more usable pitch that hitters have to account for. I don’t know that I think he is turning into an ace, but I do think we need to take him seriously. 

Roman Anthony – I was a big fan of Anthony coming up through the minor leagues because the talent is obvious. However, I struggled with him at his price in drafts this season. He was going just outside of the top 50 in the draft which to me was betting on the upside being realized which was hard to do considering his small sample in the Majors last year and the growing pains most young hitters face in the Majors. So, in spite of him hitting just .246/.355/.369 with a home run and a stolen base thus far, I am a buyer on him right now.  He still has an elite approach and is hitting the ball hard. Most importantly, he has kept the power stroke while improving his launch angle. His launch angle is up three degrees and while that isn’t a ton, it could unlock more of the type of power that his prospect pedigree suggested. His launch angle sweet spot and bat speed are both around the top 90th percentile and his exit velocity is still in a good range. I think the breakout could happen earlier than I had expected and this may be a good time to buy low if you can. 

Wilyer Abreu – I have been an Abreu hater for a while and I think it is time to just eat crow and admit I was wrong. My issues with him in the past have been his struggles against lefties and previous issues with consistent contact. However, I didn’t look enough at the latter because he made improvements to his mechanics last year that improved his Z-Contact considerably. This ability to make good in-zone contact with power as well as a drastic improvement versus lefties could propel him into a new tier. Even if he just holds his own versus lefties, he is going to take another step forward and while you won’t get any sort of discount on him right now, I would buy because you won’t be able to in a month.