MASH Report (9/12/13)
My main goal over the season’s last few MASH reports is to keep a good list of players out for the season, but not officially on the DL. Besides the two DL lists at the bottom, I will look at a few players and updated PAIN and HURT reports.
• Tony Cingrani is out with back spasms. I could see the Reds experiment with him to find out if he is able to contribute in the post season. I would just stay away from him over the rest of the season.
• Ian Kinsler has mentioned he has an injury. Not knowing the full extent of the injury, it does seem to be affecting him. So far in September, he is hitting .217/.217/.283 with a 20% K% (twice his season average). If an owner has another option for 2B or MI, they may want to utilize it.
• Bryce Harper can’t talk about his injury. IMO, I think the Nationals just don’t want to deal with answering why they let him play hurt. The Nationals are again mishandling an injury situation which seems to be a constant theme with them.
• Felix Hernandez is going to miss a start. I have no problem with this decision. Sucks for his fantasy owners in heated end of season battles. He has always thrown a ton of innings. Seattle should not take the chance of their team’s top star getting hurt.
• Clay Buchholz’s average fastball velocity was not great in his return.
Also, he only threw pitches in the strike zone 40% of the time. I don’t think he is 100%, but his 90% is better than the 100% of the Red Sox’s other options. I think he will continue to throw until the Red Sox lock up the AL East. Once 1st place is secure, I think he will rest.
HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (all hitter with at least 200 PA in 2013 and 600 PA from 2010 to 2012)
Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.
Name | PAIN | PA (2010-2013) | PA (2013) |
B.J. Upton | 206 | 1883 | 422 |
Seth Smith | 173 | 1372 | 394 |
Albert Pujols | 140 | 2021 | 443 |
Chris Johnson | 133 | 1295 | 486 |
Cesar Izturis | 128 | 719 | 136 |
Josh Willingham | 125 | 1629 | 425 |
Chris Iannetta | 122 | 902 | 360 |
Miguel Montero | 121 | 1457 | 425 |
Melky Cabrera | 120 | 1716 | 372 |
Paul Konerko | 118 | 1868 | 468 |
Lance Berkman | 118 | 1165 | 288 |
Alex Avila | 116 | 1318 | 330 |
Aramis Ramirez | 104 | 1763 | 311 |
Troy Tulowitzki | 101 | 1338 | 450 |
Mark Kotsay | 101 | 770 | 151 |
Willie Bloomquist | 100 | 918 | 121 |
John Jaso | 97 | 1038 | 249 |
Starlin Castro | 96 | 1912 | 633 |
Kevin Youkilis | 96 | 1461 | 118 |
Matt Kemp | 94 | 1806 | 251 |
Giancarlo Stanton | 91 | 1498 | 427 |
Ryan Roberts | 91 | 1115 | 173 |
Brandon Inge | 91 | 1214 | 110 |
Jay Bruce | 90 | 1870 | 629 |
Nick Markakis | 90 | 1896 | 625 |
Nick Hundley | 82 | 840 | 359 |
Jose Reyes | 79 | 1905 | 344 |
Danny Espinosa | 77 | 1428 | 167 |
J.P. Arencibia | 74 | 895 | 457 |
Prince Fielder | 73 | 2096 | 648 |
PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (min 200 pitches in Sept and Aug, comparing August and September results to the rest of the 2013 season)
Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.
Name | Pain | Velocity (Mar – July) | Zone% (Mar-July) | Velocity (Aug–Sep) | Zone% (Aug-Sep) |
Jarred Cosart | 173 | 95.0 | 50.9% | 94.2 | 42.3% |
Lucas Harrell | 160 | 91.9 | 40.7% | 91.2 | 35.3% |
Chad Qualls | 138 | 93.9 | 55.9% | 94.0 | 45.3% |
Oliver Perez | 134 | 92.6 | 55.0% | 91.6 | 48.0% |
Chad Gaudin | 132 | 91.2 | 51.6% | 89.3 | 48.1% |
Luke Gregerson | 124 | 88.0 | 47.0% | 88.4 | 39.0% |
Yoervis Medina | 119 | 94.2 | 42.3% | 93.2 | 39.8% |
Roy Halladay | 117 | 87.9 | 45.4% | 86.7 | 42.6% |
Casey Janssen | 115 | 89.6 | 50.4% | 89.5 | 43.3% |
Addison Reed | 114 | 93.1 | 55.5% | 92.0 | 49.7% |
Dallas Keuchel | 111 | 89.0 | 49.2% | 89.3 | 41.5% |
Brandon McCarthy | 111 | 90.9 | 57.0% | 89.5 | 52.0% |
Wade Miley | 102 | 91.0 | 48.0% | 90.8 | 42.4% |
Jose Veras | 101 | 91.6 | 50.2% | 90.9 | 45.6% |
Will Harris | 98 | 91.8 | 50.6% | 91.4 | 45.1% |
A.J. Griffin | 97 | 88.8 | 51.5% | 88.8 | 44.7% |
Dan Jennings | 96 | 91.9 | 47.3% | 92.1 | 41.2% |
John Lannan | 93 | 87.7 | 50.0% | 87.9 | 43.3% |
Ryan Vogelsong | 93 | 89.9 | 48.7% | 88.0 | 48.1% |
Chris Perez | 92 | 92.5 | 56.3% | 92.7 | 47.8% |
Jeremy Bonderman | 89 | 90.6 | 45.6% | 91.2 | 39.1% |
Tim Collins | 89 | 93.1 | 51.4% | 92.7 | 46.3% |
Jerry Blevins | 80 | 90.1 | 46.5% | 89.2 | 44.9% |
Hisashi Iwakuma | 79 | 88.5 | 51.4% | 87.6 | 48.1% |
Alex Wood | 78 | 92.2 | 54.5% | 91.1 | 51.1% |
Justin Masterson | 75 | 92.0 | 51.9% | 90.8 | 49.4% |
Dale Thayer | 74 | 92.9 | 55.3% | 92.6 | 49.5% |
Jonathan Papelbon | 73 | 91.1 | 50.9% | 90.6 | 47.1% |
Trevor Cahill | 72 | 89.3 | 46.8% | 90.1 | 40.7% |
Danny Farquhar | 71 | 92.2 | 48.1% | 91.7 | 45.1% |
No real movement at the top of the list, but some interesting names a little further down.
• Justin Masterson is seeing a large drop in velocity and will be sitting out a start or two.
• Travis Wood and Hisashi Iwakuma both saw recently velocity drops, but they have been inching upward.
Wood
Iwakuma
Players on the DL
(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.
Unofficial DL List
Official DL List
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Would you feel safe starting Buchholz at home against the Yankees?
Yes, unless your staff is loaded. This late in the season, you may really look to see if his start can hurt you (bad rate stats) vice help (good counting stats).