MASH Report (8/5/13)
With Biogenesis dominating the news front, injury information again is a little scarce, but I was able to scape up a bit.
Pitchers returning from the DL
• Brandon McCarthy looks fine with his average sinker velocity consistent with his previous speeds.
• Sergio Santos’s fastball velocity was at a 3-year low in his first appearance since coming off the DL.
• Steve Johnson saw his already low velocity drop even further.
• Jared Hughes’s velocity is up compared to earlier in the season.
• Stephen Fife’s velocity is constant
• Ross Ohlendorf and Steve Delabar were both place on the DL with pains which were lingering. I expect more and more out of contention teams will follow suit and rest players for 2014.
• Paul Konerko is done for in my opinion. The 37-year-old is experiencing back issues which can destroy a player’s production (source).
Ventura gave Konerko a break Thursday afternoon because the Sox played a night game Wednesday. Ventura admitted he’s careful not to extend him after his three-week stint on the DL.
“It’s just more protecting his back,” said Ventura, saying that Konerko experienced “a little something” while running the bases this week.
Konerko used to be an undervalued fantasy player in his mid-30’s, but I would not count on his production from now on.
• Michael Pineda is having problems with his shoulder again and it looks unlikely he will help the Yankees down the stretch (source).
“His strength tested out fine after the game, but he is probably going to see our doctors would be my guess,” Joe Girardi said. “With what he’s been through, we’re making sure that it’s nothing, but I can’t tell you 100% it’s not.”
The Yankees have been managing Pineda’s innings carefully since he started pitching again, throwing him between three and five innings per start. Girardi said he wouldn’t have been surprised to see Pineda join the team down the stretch, though that’s obviously now in question.
I see no reason to continue to hold Pineda in a redraft league.
• A “talent evaluator” believes CC Sabathia’s loss production is because of his weight loss (source and a H/T to Hardball Talk).
“The weight loss has created a balance problem for him,“ said one talent evaluator. “He’s all over the place. He’s learning how to pitch in that body, a body he’s really never had. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with him other than that. Sometimes you pitch at a certain weight all your life and then someone has the brilliant idea that you should lose weight because it’s putting stress on your knees, you do it, and then you’re dealing with something else.”
I really don’t believe the theory, but it is a theory.
HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (all hitter with 100 PA in 2013 and 500 PA from 2010 to 2012):
Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury. Differentiating opinion exist on his heath.
Name | HURT | PA (2013) | PA (2010-2012) |
B.J. Upton | 195.6 | 328 | 1883 |
Seth Smith | 183.6 | 339 | 1372 |
Nolan Reimold | 171.6 | 140 | 505 |
Jason Kubel | 147.6 | 247 | 1554 |
Albert Pujols | 140.4 | 443 | 2021 |
Chris Iannetta | 136.8 | 288 | 902 |
Aramis Ramirez | 121.2 | 209 | 1763 |
Justin Turner | 121.2 | 128 | 690 |
Melky Cabrera | 120 | 372 | 1716 |
Lance Berkman | 115.2 | 282 | 1165 |
Vernon Wells | 111.6 | 362 | 1437 |
Cesar Izturis | 111.6 | 116 | 719 |
Chris Johnson | 110.4 | 362 | 1295 |
Alex Avila | 109.2 | 273 | 1318 |
Miguel Montero | 106.8 | 376 | 1457 |
Giancarlo Stanton | 104.4 | 297 | 1498 |
John Jaso | 97.2 | 249 | 1038 |
Brandon Phillips | 96 | 454 | 1985 |
Dustin Ackley | 96 | 263 | 1044 |
Kevin Youkilis | 96 | 118 | 1461 |
Delmon Young | 94.8 | 285 | 1724 |
Matt Kemp | 93.6 | 251 | 1806 |
Paul Konerko | 92.4 | 333 | 1868 |
Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 91.2 | 340 | 864 |
Brandon Inge | 91.2 | 110 | 1214 |
• A few weeks ago, Miguel Montero showed up on the HURT leader board as one of several catchers who may be playing through a few dings and dents. He was just placed on the DL with a back strain which has lingered for a while.
PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (30 IP in 2012, 30 Ip in 2013)
Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.
Name | PAIN | IP (2013) | IP (2012) |
Jeff Locke | 236.9 | 125.2 | 34.1 |
Jason Marquis | 212.2 | 117.2 | 127.2 |
Lucas Harrell | 186.8 | 122.1 | 193.2 |
Esmil Rogers | 152.8 | 93.2 | 78.2 |
Tanner Scheppers | 136.1 | 50.1 | 32.1 |
Alexi Ogando | 128.4 | 69.0 | 66.0 |
Pedro Strop | 115.6 | 36.1 | 66.1 |
Matt Moore | 112.1 | 121.1 | 177.1 |
Scott Feldman | 105.0 | 127.1 | 123.2 |
Adam Ottavino | 103.0 | 56.2 | 79.0 |
Francisco Liriano | 100.4 | 102.2 | 156.2 |
Luis Mendoza | 94.4 | 86.1 | 166.0 |
Felix Hernandez | 89.3 | 160.2 | 232.0 |
Scott Downs | 86.7 | 33.0 | 45.2 |
Tony Sipp | 85.1 | 32.2 | 55.0 |
John Axford | 84.8 | 46.0 | 69.1 |
Michael Gonzalez | 80.6 | 40.0 | 35.2 |
Zack Greinke | 78.9 | 105.0 | 212.1 |
Craig Stammen | 78.4 | 58.2 | 88.1 |
Ryan Webb | 74.4 | 49.1 | 60.1 |
Jake Westbrook | 73.5 | 98.1 | 174.2 |
Jordan Walden | 73.3 | 37.0 | 39.0 |
Fernando Rodney | 63.7 | 45.2 | 74.2 |
Burke Badenhop | 62.8 | 49.0 | 62.1 |
Mark Melancon | 61.8 | 52.1 | 45.0 |
• The newest Oriole, Scott Feldman, has the signs of a pitcher throwing with PAIN. His velocity is down from 2012 (91.7 to 90.1 mph) and still declining.
Also, he is having problems throwing strikes with his Zone% dropping for 50% to 46%.
Players on the DL
(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Would you try to shop Giancarlo in a redraft because of his hurt value? (assuming you can get full value) Or is it high because of his early season dl stints…
His HURT value is from his decline in power from 2012 (.318) to 2013 (.221). Most of the loss happened in the first half of this season. His ISO is higher in the 2nd half the season (.208) to (.263).
Personally, I think he gets tired of being pitched around all the time and swings at crappy pitches and makes crappy contact.
I would look at his 2nd half production and see if you can improve on it with another player.
Will do…thanks!