MASH Report (10/10/13) – Injury Prediction Results

I spent most of my time finishing cleaning up the list of possible 2014 DL candidates (end of article). Also I was able write a couple player injury updates. Finally, I looked over some starting pitcher injury predictions using Zone%, Slider% and Curve ball%

• Carlos Gonzalez gave a lamed middle finger to surgery. From the advice of his doctor, he will hopefully rest and rehab until his middle finger is all good. If rest and rehab don’t work, he’ll need surgery and may not be ready by opening day.

• Matt Kemp is still a mess. He had surgery on his elbow which will keep him out for 6-8 weeks. Additionally, there are more details on his ankle.

A bigger concern for Kemp now is the microfractured talus bone near his ankle that knocked him out of the postseason and put him on crutches for another three weeks.

Kemp said he was warned by doctors that further damage to the involved bone could be career threatening. Major surgery on the ankle is not anticipated, doctors said, but a minor cleanup procedure is possible.

I want nothing to do with Kemp until I see him sprint in spring training.

• Last fall, I investigated a quote from Billy Beane about the injury chances of non-strike throwing pitchers. I found starting pitchers who threw less than 47% of their pitches in the strike zone had a near 50% chance of ending up on the DL the next season. With this regular season over, it’s time to see how the injury projection held up. Here are the pitchers in question and if they ended up on the 2013 DL.

Name	IP	Zone%	On DL
Francisco Liriano	156	43.2%	Yes
Jeremy Hellickson	177	43.5%	No
Luis Mendoza	166	43.7%	No
Trevor Cahill	200	44.5%	Yes
Edwin Jackson	189	44.7%	No
Josh Johnson	191	44.9%	Yes
James Shields	227	45.0%	No
Zack Greinke	212	45.1%	Yes
Jon Lester	205	45.1%	No
Tim Lincecum	186	45.3%	No
Yovani Gallardo	204	45.3%	Yes
Jason Marquis	127	45.7%	Yes
Jake Westbrook	174	45.8%	Yes
Shaun Marcum	124	46.0%	Yes
Edinson Volquez	182	46.0%	No
Stephen Strasburg	159	46.2%	Yes
Ricky Romero	181	46.3%	No
Joe Saunders	174	46.3%	No
Jarrod Parker	181	46.5%	No
Hiroki Kuroda	219	46.7%	No
Jerome Williams	137	46.7%	No
Gio Gonzalez	199	46.7%	No
Tommy Hanson	174	46.9%	Yes

Only 10 of the 23 went on the DL or 43%. The number is not as high as previous seasons, but still higher than the league average of 39%.

Besides pitchers who don’t throw strikes, pitchers who use a lot of sliders and curve balls have been more injury prone. A slider usage of 30% or more meant a 46% DL chance and 25% or more curve ball usage meant a 51% DL chance. Here are the pitchers from 2012 who were more likely to be DL bound.

Name	IP	Slider%	Curveball%	On DL
Ryan Dempster	173	39.5%		No
Madison Bumgarner	208	36.4%		No
Bud Norris	168	36.4%		No
Ervin Santana	178	36.2%		No
Francisco Liriano	156	32.7%		Yes
Jason Marquis	127	31.9%		Yes
CC Sabathia	200	31.8%		Yes
Wandy Rodriguez	205		30.7%	Yes
Scott Diamond	173		29.0%	Yes
Ivan Nova	170		28.8%	Yes
Erik Bedard	125		28.3%	No

So 43% of the heavy slider throwers went on the DL. Also, all of the curve ball users, except Erik Bedard (#cantpredictbaseball), went on the DL.

Players possibly on the DL to start the 2014 season

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Major League Report

Minor League Report