Mash Report (2/11/13)
Recent injury data
• Felix Hernandez’s new 7-year contract is under dispute because of an elbow condition the team found. Last season he did see a drop in his velocity mid-season which came back up.
His other injury factors look fine (low inconsistency factor, high Zone%):
News flash, all people who throw a baseball over 90 mph will have elbow or shoulder problems eventually. I would not change his value and maybe pick him up cheaper as some owners may be scared off because of the news.
• George Sherrill looks to return to the mound in late April. Even when he returns, he will be a non-factor in a stack Royals bullpen.
• Victor Martinez says he his healthy. OK. I want to see him play a few games before totally believing this comment.
• Scott Diamond is “Iffy” for opening day after having arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone chip shoulder. He could be a nice innings eater in AL-only leagues. Pick him cheaply on draft/auction day.
• Jair Jurrjens is so broke down, the Orioles are trying to find ways to get out of a $1.5M contract. Just keep your distance.
• Cory Luebke is on pace to return to the team in early June. He may be a nice DL stash for later in the season. The same article states Joe Wieland will be back anywhere from August to the start of 2014.
• Matt LaPorta now has not hip pain. He did last season, quite a bit it sounds like. Even if he gets back to 100%, his 100% will probably not be enough. No need to roster him unless he somehow finds a major league starting position.
• Good report concerning Colby Lewis, who has had his return date moved up to May instead of July as originally planned. Another possible DL stasher for a mid-season return.
• Brian McCann’s return date has already been pushed back two weeks.
• I couldn’t find any decent recent information on Juan Nicasio. Hopefully more will become available with the start of spring training.
• Derek Jeter looks healthy. What else should be expected.
• Michael Pineda’s timetable for return has been narrowed down to June or July.
Player Return Timetables
Name | Injury | Injury/Surgery Date | Early Return Date | Later Return date | Status | Source(s) |
Scott Baker | TJS | 4/17/12 | Start of Spring Training | Opening day | Throwing off mound | (1) |
Brandon Beachy | TJS | 6/21/12 | Mid June | Mid June | Playing Catch | (1) |
Jeremy Bonderman | TJS | 04/24/12 | Late March | Late March | Healthy | (1) |
Chris Carpenter | Nerve | 02/05/13 | September | Retire | Rest | (1) |
Andrew Cashner | Thumb laceration | 1/25/13 | May | May | Rest | (1) |
Carl Crawford | TJS | 8/23/12 | Early April | Unknown | Throwing | (1) |
Scott Diamond | Elbow Surgery | 10/1/12 | Early April | Early May | Unknown | (1) |
Kyle Drabek | TJS | 6/19/12 | Mid Season | Mid Season | Unknown | (1) |
Danny Duffy | TJS | 6/13/12 | Late May/Early June | All Star Game | Playing Catch | (1) |
Neftali Feliz | TJS | 8/1/12 | July | August | Playing Catch | (1) |
Corey Hart | Right knee surgery | 1/26/13 | Late April | Late May | Rest | (1) |
Daniel Hudson | TJS | 7/9/12 | July | July | Playing Catch | (1) |
Drew Hutchison | TJS | 08/08/12 | August | October | Rehabilitation | (1) |
Derek Jeter | Fractured Left Ankle | 10/1/12 | Late March | Late March | Fielding | (1) |
Ryan Kalish | Shoulder Surgery | 1/25/13 | Early April | Unknown | Rest | (1) |
Matt Kemp | Shoulder | 8/1/12 | Late March | Late March | Light Training | (1) |
Colby Lewis | Elbow Surgery | 7/1/12 | May | July | Throwing | (1) |
Francisco Liriano | Broken humerus | 12/1/12 | Early April | Late May | Rest | (1) |
Cory Luebke | TJS | 5/23/12 | July | July | Unknown | (1) |
Ryan Madson | TJS | 04/11/12 | Late March | Late March | Throwing off mound | (1) |
Brian McCann | Torn labrum | 7/4/12 | Mid April | May | Running and throwing | (1) |
Logan Morrison | Knee | 9/1/12 | Late March | Late April | Light Training | (1) |
Charlie Morton | TJS | 06/21/12 | June | Unknown | Throwing | (1) |
Juan Oviedo | TJS | 09/06/12 | September | 2014 | Rest | (1) |
Felipe Paulino | TJS | 7/3/12 | Early July | Early July | Unknown | (1) |
Carl Pavano | Ruptured spleen | 1/25/13 | Late March | Mid April | Rest | (1) |
Mike Pelfrey | TJS | 05/01/12 | Late March | Late March | Throwing | (1) |
Michael Pineda | Shoulder Surgery | 5/1/12 | June | Early July | Rest | (1) |
Alex Rodriguez | Hip surgery | 1/16/13 | Early July | 2014 season | Rest | (1) |
CC Sabathia | Bone Spur | 10/1/12 | Late March | Late March | Throwing | (1) |
George Sherill | TJS | 5/1/11 | Late April | May | Bullpen Sessions | (1) |
Joakim Soria | TJS | 4/2/12 | Late May | Early June | Playing Catch | (1) |
Eric Surkamp | TJS | 07/24/12 | Late July | September | Unknown | |
Tsuyoshi Wada | TJS | 05/11/12 | Late March | Early July | Unknown | (1)(2) |
Josh Tomlin | TJS | 08/22/12 | August | 2014 | Rest | (1) |
Joe Wieland | TJS | 07/27/12 | Early August | 2014 | Catch | (1) |
Brian Wilson | TJS | 4/19/12 | Unknown | Unknown | Not ready to pitch | (1) |
Randy Wolf | TJS | 10/30/12 | 2014 | 2014 | Rest | (1) |
Players Returning From Injury
Information will be added as it becomes available.
Players Playing Through Injuries
Name | Injury | Source |
Hanley Ramirez | Shoulder | (1) |
Here is the list of players who should exceed their power projections for 2013:
Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Plouffe, Justin Upton, Paul Konerko, Dustin Pedroia, Luke Scott, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria, and Troy Tulowitzki. New additions: Matt LaPorta
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Felix isn’t getting good advice if he lets any broad language about his elbow into the contract. There is no pitcher in the world right now that I don’t expect to have elbow trouble in the next seven years. It’d be like putting an “aging” clause into the contract Pujols signed last offseason.