MASH (7/28/14)

by
July 28, 2014

Not much injury news over the weekend, sorry.

• A reader asked if Chris Davis may be injured. The short answer for those with little time, probably. Now here is the long answer.

The concern for Davis centers on his low .199 AVG and 17 home runs. He spent spent 15 days on the DL early in the season for a strained abdomen. No other reported news. Before the injury he hit .250/.372/.382. Since returning, he has mainly  seen a huge drop in his AVG, .183/.288/.394. Looking through my injury indicators, his ISO is down from .240 career average to .192. His Contact% is down for 69% to 67%. These values put his HURT value at 155 which is one of the top values among the league regulars. So, yes his is probably still hurt.

The other issue he is dealing with is the shift. In 2013, he had a .425 BABIP with no shift on and a .302 with the shift employed for a difference of .123. So far this season, he is hitting .375 without the shift on and .236 with a shift for a difference of .141. The shift related decline was almost the same overall for each season. This season he is not hitting the ball as hard (probably from the injury), so both BABIP values are down. I would look at Davis as a possible buy low candidate for next season, but expect the batting average to stay low.

• There is a decent chance Matt Cain will not pitch again this season because of his inflamed elbow.

• Mark Trumbo isn’t looking to hit for power since coming off the DL.

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“The way they disrupt your timing here is special,” Gibson said. “It’s a lot tougher.”

Part of the reason the power hasn’t showed is Trumbo isn’t exactly looking for it at the moment. When making contact is the issue, there’s no need for a big swing.

Instead, he’s shortening his swing. Once he’s connecting more, he’ll worry about how far it travels.

“I’m trying to keep it simple,” he said. “I’m fouling pitches off.

If he isn’t going to hit for power, what else is he good for.

Fastball Velocity Watch for Pitchers Returning From the DL

• Collin McHugh’s average fastball velocity is up.

• Kevin Siegrist’s is at this season’s low.

Image

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Major League Report

On DL





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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equistMember since 2017
11 years ago

Is Jay Bruce hurt? or just out of it?

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Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
11 years ago
Reply to  equist

He could still be affected from his knee injury in May. His contact % is down just a bit, but his ISO is down about 50 points.

He seemed to begin hitting June .300/.351/.540, but has been horrible in July, .147.200/.293. I will keep my eye on any comments from the Reds on him.

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