MASH (12/9/2013) – Starting Pitcher DL Chances

by
December 9, 2013

Besides the 2014 starting pitcher disabled list (DL) predictions, have a few notes on some players.

• A few weeks ago I re-examined my 2013 starting pitcher DL predictions. The results were dead on as usual. For the 2014 predictions, I have put them in a spreadsheet for everyone to complain about. The main DL percentage chance is based off of age, MLB experience and past injuries.  Additionally, I have added an indication if the player has any other injury inducing traits like heavy breaking ball usage and the inability to throw strikes. While the entire list is available on the spreadsheet, here are the 10 least likely pitchers to go on the DL who also have no other injury indicators.

Name DL Chance
Rick Porcello 27.6%
Clayton Kershaw 28.0%
Mike Leake 29.0%
Mike Minor 29.8%
Patrick Corbin 30.0%
Julio Teheran 30.2%
Chris Sale 30.3%
Gio Gonzalez 30.4%
Shelby Miller 30.4%
Jose Quintana 30.6%

• Corey Hart has been “Cleared!” to begin baseball activities. Keep an eye on where he goes as he could be nice 2014 buy low canidate.

• Johnny Cueto is “feeling 100 percent right now” and is wanting to pitch in the Caribbean this winter. I think he will still be injury risk until he takes away the twist in his rotation.

• A few injury risk assessment have been published recently. Jeff Sullivan here at FanGraphs and RK at MakeNoLittlePlans each wrote about Jacoby Ellsbury‘s injury risk. At my own blog, baseballheatmaps.com, I did quick look at Doug Fister’s injury risk.

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Possible Players on the DL to Start the 2014 Season

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Major League Report

Minor League Report





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Jay29Member since 2025
11 years ago

Any recommendation as to how to incorporate the DL chances into projections for games started? For example, if Liriano has a 44.7% chance of hitting the DL, and thus missing at least 2 starts (15 days), it still doesn’t say anything about the length of any given DL stint.

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Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
11 years ago
Reply to  Jay29

I have and could fairly easily. Let me see what I could do. I will probably do an average and mean days lost.

The one issue I have always thought of is if a pitcher has to get TJS in August. I would just show him with 30 days lost, but it would basically he 2 season.

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