March Composite Rankings – Shortstop
Our staff composite rankings are back! We’re onto shortstop and we’ll be rolling out a new position each day over the next week-plus. I will still be doing my commentary by position rankings to give a quick little thought, but those will be separate posts.
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.
Key:
- AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
- Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
- SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
—
| NAME | Paul S | Mike | Jeff | Justin | AVG | Adj. AVG | Split | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea Turner | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 |
| 2 | Francisco Lindor | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| 3 | Carlos Correa | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| 4 | Corey Seager | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2 |
| 5 | Alex Bregman | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0 |
| 6 | Elvis Andrus | 9 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5 |
| 7 | Jean Segura | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 1 |
| 8 | Xander Bogaerts | 7 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 5 |
| 9 | Trevor Story | 8 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 4 |
| 10 | Didi Gregorius | 15 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 11 | Javier Baez | 10 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 12.8 | 10.5 | 10 |
| 12 | Chris Taylor | 11 | 9 | 17 | 18 | 13.8 | 14.0 | 9 |
| 13 | Marcus Semien | 14 | 11 | 23 | 11 | 14.8 | 12.5 | 12 |
| 14 | Andrelton Simmons | 16 | 18 | 13 | 14 | 15.3 | 15.0 | 5 |
| 15 | Eduardo Nunez | 12 | 22 | 9 | 20 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 13 |
| 16 | Orlando Arcia | 13 | 21 | 19 | 13 | 16.5 | 16.0 | 8 |
| 17 | Jorge Polanco | 19 | 15 | 14 | 21 | 17.3 | 17.0 | 7 |
| 18 | Paul DeJong | 20 | 14 | 16 | 22 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 8 |
| 19 | Tim Beckham | 21 | 13 | 25 | 19 | 19.5 | 20.0 | 12 |
| 20 | Jose Peraza | 26 | 16 | 15 | 23 | 20.0 | 19.5 | 11 |
| 21 | Zack Cozart | 22 | 24 | 20 | 15 | 20.3 | 21.0 | 9 |
| 22 | Marwin Gonzalez | 17 | 28 | 21 | 17 | 20.8 | 19.0 | 11 |
| 23 | Addison Russell | 23 | 19 | 28 | 16 | 21.5 | 21.0 | 12 |
| 24 | Tim Anderson | 18 | 25 | 22 | 26 | 22.8 | 23.5 | 8 |
| 25 | Brandon Crawford | 27 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 2 |
| 26 | Amed Rosario | 25 | 23 | 18 | 42 | 27.0 | 24.0 | 24 |
| 27 | Asdrubal Cabrera | 28 | 17 | 24 | 43 | 28.0 | 26.0 | 26 |
| 28 | Ketel Marte | 31 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 28.5 | 28.0 | 4 |
| 29 | Chris Owings | 29 | 33 | 29 | 24 | 28.8 | 29.0 | 9 |
| 30 | Freddy Galvis | 30 | 27 | 31 | 29 | 29.3 | 29.5 | 4 |
| 31 | Troy Tulowitzki | 33 | 31 | 33 | 30 | 31.8 | 32.0 | 3 |
| 32 | Hernan Perez | 36 | 30 | 36 | 33 | 33.8 | 34.5 | 6 |
| 33 | Yangervis Solarte | 32 | 36 | 37 | 31 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 6 |
| 34 | Jose Iglesias | 37 | 35 | 30 | 37 | 34.8 | 36.0 | 7 |
| 35 | Dansby Swanson | 38 | 34 | 34 | 35 | 35.3 | 34.5 | 4 |
| 36 | Jose Reyes | 24 | 47 | 43 | 28 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 23 |
| 37 | Jordy Mercer | 39 | 37 | 35 | 36 | 36.8 | 36.5 | 4 |
| 38 | J.P. Crawford | 35 | 41 | 41 | 34 | 37.8 | 38.0 | 7 |
| 39 | Adeiny Hechavarria | 48 | 32 | 32 | 45 | 39.3 | 38.5 | 16 |
| 40 | Alcides Escobar | 42 | 38 | 38 | 40 | 39.5 | 39.0 | 4 |
| 41 | Franklin Barreto | 40 | 51 | 46 | 32 | 42.3 | 43.0 | 19 |
| 42 | Adalberto Mondesi | 41 | 49 | 45 | 38 | 43.3 | 43.0 | 11 |
| 43 | Aledmys Diaz | 34 | 54 | 46 | 41 | 43.8 | 43.5 | 20 |
| 44 | Nick Ahmed | 46 | 40 | 46 | 44 | 44.0 | 45.0 | 6 |
| 45 | Chad Pinder | 44 | 42 | 44 | 49 | 44.8 | 44.0 | 7 |
Where does Machado slot in this list when he gets SS eligibility?
Between Galvis and Tulo?
Probably 4 for me.
Beings its a contract year. Does Machado get the green light more often? Possibly 12+ steals this year? Maybe returning to his 2015 running self again.
Why not just include him?
Does it really matter? No rankings include him as he doesn’t qualify there right now and these are draft lists, but he’s a top 2 round guy… insert up near the top somewhere. It doesn’t change much.
Then why rank any of the top players if it doesn’t matter???
Because they qualify for the position…. c’mon, man.
These rankings are meant to help people plan for the draft correct? If people are planning to draft Machado as a SS then it makes sense to help them plan for that. That’s why.
We rank the people eligible at the positions. Standard operating procedure across the entire industry. Not sure why you’re so bent on this but I’m afraid you’ll have to add Machado manually. Good luck in your drafts!
Sporting News ranked him as a SS. I love your work Paul but this is a silly reason.
It’s really not, though. ESPN, CBS, Rotowire, and FantasyPros didn’t. I just don’t see why it’s a combative thing. Sorry, man.
Going into the 2017 season the entire world, including Maddon, thought Kyle Schwarber was going to start at least 10 games as catcher. In anticipation of this, Yahoo! made Schwarber catcher eligible for 2017, despite not playing enough games to qualify at catcher in 2016. People were furious. Schwarber never did play enough games at catcher to properly qualify for catcher in 2017.
Sporer has the right call here.
What? Pretty sure Fangraphs still ranked him as a C though. You chose the wrong example.
That is exactly the point. Maddon said Schwarber was going to play catcher in 2017. Yahoo! believed him and made Schwarber catcher eligible, going against their own eligibility rules. Schwarber never started a game at catcher in all of 2017. Considering Schwarber a catcher was a mistake made by the entire fantasy community- eligibility AND rankings.
From Fangraph’s perspective, this is a case of “Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me. “
Machado cannot be considered SS right now. My league, for example, requires that we fill each starting slot on our rosters by the end of the auction. I cannot pick Machado to fill my SS slot.
Let it go. Stop ruining a good post. Glad you read the Sporting News. Is it the 1985 edition ?
I agree that he shouldn’t be included in the rankings, as isn’t a SS yet, and something could change that keeps him at 3B.
However, I do have the question always of where would a top guy rank. Knowing that he ‘likely’ will gain eligibility early on it maybe would have been a good idea to have made a side note before or after the rankings. Being that he is such a top level player.
With you guys being good about responding in the comment section though…kinda does that though.
If he doesn’t currently qualify at the position then you can’t draft him there. Duh!
He’s going to be a SS a week into the season and most everyone will be drafting him as a SS. Seems strange that people don’t just go ahead and rank him.
Does any site have him ranked at SS?
Machado will be between Schoop and Beckham. . . .
Good one. LOL
probably first.
He’s number one, if you buy the bouceback. The Steamer projections do!
Here are the Fangraphs Auction Calculator $ values (found under the Projections tab) using standard Ottoneu settings, 12 teams, and a $260 budget (dollar values assigned to Avg, R, RBI, HR, SB, Position Adjustment):
Trout: $42.3 (for reference)
Turner: $30.6 (#6 overall hitter)
Machado: $30.1 (#7 overall hitter)
Lindor: $25.4
Correa: $21.6
Bellinger: $19.6 (for reference, 30th ranked batter)
The same projections, adjusted for standard Yahoo league settings (no distinction in OF, no CI or MI, 2 UT, 5 Bench, 1400 max IP):
Trout: $56.3 (for reference)
Machado: $37.8 (#6 overall hitter)
Turner: $37.4 (#7 overall hitter)
Lindor: $31.5
Correa: $25.9
Bellinger: $22.6 (still #30)
Not sold on Andrus? Not sure I am either. But he seems to have a big split in ranks – what do you think Paul?
Interestingly since 2015 when the (maybe but not so maybe) change in the ball happened Andrus has steadily increased his ISO.
https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=8709&statArr=40&legend=1,2&split=base&time=daily&ymin=&ymax=&start=2015&end=2017&rtype=mult>1=100&dStatArray=
Not sure if this is consistent with other guys over the time frame or if its a sign of him slowly adjusting to the ball….or nothing but some lines going in the same general direction.
My xHR/FB rate validates the power surge, but that doesn’t automatically mean he’ll hold onto the underlying skills gains that drove the spike. Still, I obviously think he’s mostly for real given my ranking. And he’s got the steals cushion and excellent home park.
Corey Seager has a higher wRC+ every year of his career than Lindor, and everyone has Lindor ahead of him. Significantly higher avg/obp/slg for his career, and the consistency blows Lindor’s out of the water. Projections peg them almost equal across the board, and that includes Seager’s avg falling to .290ish for some reason, despite a career .305 and hitting .313 pre-elbow injury last year.
I don’t play any wRC+ leagues. Projections have them equal across the board… except the part you didn’t mention even in passing… speed. The 10 SBs are easily enough to have Lindor over Seager, let alone the health issues w/Seags. I can’t see any real reason to have Seager over Lindor.
How about the fact that Seager has a better career HR/PA, R/PA, identical RBI/PA, and a significantly better batting average that doesn’t crater when he sells out to hit HR? More consistent track record and a better overall hitter (career 876 ops vs 823) at the expense of 10 SB seems reasonable. Industry doesn’t seem concerned with the elbow injury affecting playing time
Nah, still not sold. That’s just rephrasing the wRC+ thing in different ways, tbh. 10 SBs is worth way more than 50 pts of OPS. Jeff has 1 SB = 2 HR in terms of value. Just don’t see a case for Seager over Lindor when they’re hitting is close – if not equal, Lindor has speed, and Seager’s not really healthy.
I have been drafting Machado + filler this year quite a bit unless I am able to get Turner/Lindor/Bregman. I think that Seager might be the most overdrafted player in the entire MLB.
xStats had Lindor at 34 xHR last year meaning the power approach is legit. His xAVG was .292, so he was unlucky in terms of batting average. Seager’s xAVG was .291 and 25 xHR.
I’d rather have the guy who goes .290-34-15 than the guy who goes .290-25-5 but what do I know?
I’d have to agree with Lindor being higher. SB are just worth so much. HR not so much when everyone is hitting them these days.
Link to past rankings appears to take us to 1B rankings
My bad. Copy-pasted the intro from 1B and forgot that portion. I haven’t done my SS commentary rankings yet.
Oh boy, I am not going near Trevor Story if he’s being valued as a top 10 shortstop.
3 biggest splits are all Mets. Read: don’t draft a Mets MI.
I am not sure why people are so low on Reyes. Sure he was poor for a good part of the season last year, but he came around quite a bit towards the end of the year, and the sum of the parts wasn’t all that bad. Penciling in 10 HRs +20 steals practically free.
How many spots do you bump Taylor for his multi-position eligibility?
To me, I’d almost bump him up to #6 considering he can play anywhere — it gives you the option to take a gamble that Jorge Polanco’s 2nd half was legit or that Paul DeJong follows up with a strong year, without taking a ton of risk.
I guess I just don’t see a whole lot of surplus value difference in anyone from say 6-16
love taylor, definitely getting him as much as possible
In OPS leagues, does Trea fall out of the top spot?
Turner has about a 7% walk rate and Correa is at 11%. Personally I don’t think that difference makes up for the speed value Turner generates. Lindor walks at just over 8% so he won’t move up either.
don’t forget OPS also counts slugging
You are right. For some reason I read it as OBP. That said, is the OPS league a 6×6 or does OPS replace BA? 6×6 I would still take Turner, but just swapping OPS for BA probably tilts it to Correa.
What do you like about Tim Anderson that puts him as high as 18?
A rate of 25 HR+SB per 500 PA for his career. The BB% is a nightmare and thus so is the OBP, but he’s going to get playing time. He’s top 20 with a ’17 repeat, but could be even better if he starts to develop.
I don’t think Zobrist is SS eligible – 5 G and zero starts at SS last year. (UNless you think he’s going to be eligible shortly into this year in which case, where’s Machado? 🙂 )
I did a 5 games pull, but I couldn’t decipher between starts & appearances so he snuck in there. I’ll remove him.
Where would you put Senzel if the SS experiment lasts long enough to get him eligibility?
I’m surprised to see Barreto behind Crawford based on their respective springs. I assume that’s mostly a playing time adjustment?
Ketel Marte is underrated, plus, he’s going to be playing 2nd Base and he’s not even on your Keystone rankings. I’ve read all your Composit Lists and honestly your way off on a lot of Players. Odor is way to High, Cesar Hernandez is way to low. You actually have Chad Kuhl ranked in top 100 and he’s getting Shelled this spring just like he got Shelled last year. Also, one Pitcher whom you didn’t even mention who has more promise and a better team is Brent Suter. He’s projecting to be the 4th Starter for the Brew Crew and is absolutely killing it this spring. He’s going to be a huge breakout and nobody is talking about him. Anyhow thanks for the diligent work
What’s underrated about Marte? What am I missing in this .265/.319/.361 line and 13 SB per 600 PA? He’s not ranked at 2B because he’s not eligible there.
Disagreements are fine. We expect that, but you haven’t really made any case against the ones you have a dispute with.
Suter’s a 4-inning pitcher, Spring Training is tailor-made for him. His OPS goes up 300 pts the third time through and no inning after the 4th had an OPS below .870. He’s not bad, but I’m content letting it play out and possibly checking in via the waiver wire if he starts fast and shows some way to get through lineups a third time.
It seems his argument in some cases is Spring Training stats (Kuhl and Suter) at least.
How bout some Gleyber Torres action? Or is he outside the top 50?
Taylor is my sleeper.
Not Turner,Correa etc…..
Still solid 4th or 5th rder.
Much like Abreau at 1b.
Anybody else think you could get similar fantasy value from Dee Gordon than you would from Trea Turner? I mean it’s obvious Turner is the better hitter but why pay for the slightly better RBI and HR in the first round when you could easily get the same quality BA, SB and R a round or two later?
15+ HRs and 40+ RBI is more then just slightly better
I agree however you could get better production by taking somebody else in the first round and then getting Gordon in the 4th round.
Am the only one who think Didi should be a lot lower his OBP was .318 when league lgOBP was .330
Paul, When can we expect the full rankings spreadsheet? Really need it for my draft
Justin’s ranking of the Mets players totally skews their rankings. Can we get an explanation as to why he thinks Reyes is better than both Rosario and Cabrera?
This is the position with the most scarcity outside of Catcher.
1. Turner
2. Machado
3. Correa
4. Lindor
5. Bregman
6. C Seager
After that it’s a free for all. I dont want any of the other guys so I have taken 2 of these 6 in most of the drafts I have done. The only other SS I even remotely want is Semien if I dont get one of the top 6.
I know this is 5×5 but I’m having a real hard time seeing Trevor Story as a Top 10 SS. Nothing in his professional history suggests there was anything “real” about his 2016 and nothing in his peripherals last year suggests there is positive regression coming his way.
I guess SS is a dart throw once you get outside of the Top 6-7 and Story is as good a risk as any to take but Fangraphs has him as the 11th SS off the board with a 117 ADP while fairly similar contributors like Marcus Semien go 228th while Tim Beckham and Addison Russell go 263. Story finished 2017 as the 16th best SS in 5×5 and I just don’t see how he’s going to improve on that.
But hey, you could do way worse I guess. Might as well pick and pray.
For me this misses the obvious upside associated with Coors. Yes, he may cut a similar image to Semien or Beckham, but he also has Coors Field that could foster a full season of his 2016 or something in between that and his 2017, say a .260/30/10 with 160 R+RBI.
We’re still talking about a 25-year old in the game’s best hitting environment who had a 97-game run of excellence curbed only by injury. It’s not like we’re buying a bland profile here. If you don’t believe in Story, yes, wait on those others and get something similar, but there’s profit to gain, even at 9th.
I mean sure all things being equal, you put your money on the guy playing 81 in Coors but is Coors really the difference between 9 and 13 (Semien) or 19 (Beckham) or even 23 (Russell) here?
I picked those 4 guys because their Steamer600 projections are very similar. Story is very clearly the best of the group, but they’re similar enough that I don’t see a 14 ranking spot and 146 draft spot difference between top and bottom.
.252 27 HR 10 SB 161 R+RBI (Story)
.252 21 HR 12 SB 145 R+RBI (Semien)
.253 20 HR 8 SB 74 140 R+RBI (Beckham)
.252 22 HR 5 SB 146 R+RBI (Russell)
I know these are position rankings not value rankings but if you’re looking at it from a profit to gain standpoint, I see even less justification for Story at 9. I certainly agree that Story has the best chance of the group to be a difference maker just on the off-chance that he replicates 2016 over a full season, but you’re paying full price to get the opportunity to take that chance.
That isn’t as much a criticism of you in particular Paul since your individual rankings have these guys clustered fairly close together but I look at Jeff with Story at 12, Semien at 23, Beckham at 25 and Russell at 28 and I just don’t see it. Maybe SS just gets really tight once you get past 6 or 7 and the realistic difference between a Story and Beckham isn’t actually that big.