Making Sense of Anthony Rendon
It’s been a tale of two months thus far for Nationals infielder Anthony Rendon. Things started off well for the 23-year-old. In April, he hit .316, with four home runs. After the strong start, the league may have adjusted. Rendon is hitting just .190, with one home run, in May. Despite the recent struggles, Rendon has shown some signs of improvement at the plate during his sophomore season.
Due to the recent slump, Rendon’s overall numbers don’t seem that impressive. His .333 wOBA is an improvement over his .318 mark last season, but it only rates him as slightly above-average. That’s not necessarily a bad thing considering it’s his second season, but it’s a disappointment based on how he started the year. It’s tough to big into the stats when we’re dealing with monthly samples, but it’s unlikely Rendon is as bad as he’s shown in May. While his true talent level hasn’t been established yet, it seems safe to assume he’ll get better.
Rendon has also made some strides at the plate that suggest he’s improved this year. Rendon is showing more optimal batted-ball rates, particularly if he’s going to emerge as a power-hitter. His fly ball rate has jumped from 33.9% to 42.2% this year. Putting more balls in the air has helped Rendon raise his slugging percentage to .452, nearly 60 points higher than it was in 2013. It played a role in Rendon hitting five home runs already, though it should be noted that his 8.1 HR/FB rate is still below the league-average.
Some of that shiny, new slugging percentage is a result of Rendon using the whole field. Rendon has experienced a lot of success going to center and to the opposite field in 2014.
| Opposite Field | PA | AVG | SLG | XBH | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Center 2013 | 109 | 0.327 | 0.402 | 6 | 0.317 |
| Center 2014 | 58 | 0.298 | 0.526 | 7 | 0.348 |
| Opposite 2013 | 80 | 0.312 | 0.455 | 9 | 0.320 |
| Opposite 2014 | 38 | 0.395 | 0.632 | 6 | 0.444 |
Both Rendon’s slugging percentage and wOBA have improved to the opposite field. And given his pace when it comes to extra base hits, it seems he’s taken more balls up-the-middle and to right at the start of the year. His wOBA to center has improved to about league-average, while his wOBA to right is one of the best rates in the league. This approach may have had a negative impact on his pull numbers, as Rendon has been below-average when taking the ball to left this season. If that can rebound, Rendon’s numbers should take a step forward, even if his opposite field rates drop.
The issue here is that we don’t have an accurate idea of what Rendon’s end of season numbers will be. As is, it would still represent an improvement over his rookie season, and would put him in good shape considering his age and room for growth. At the same time, adjustments need to be made. Rendon needs to discover his pull power again, and he’ll need to start hitting righties better — he’s posted a 92 wRC+ against them thus far. But the minor improvements have given hope that Rendon has what it takes to adjust. Though the current slump may be concerning, there’s still a lot of potential in his bat.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
Any young player (or really any player at all) goes through slumps. Rendon isn’t as good as he looked in April (yet), but he’s much better than he’s shown in May.
Which is basically what the author is saying, so I’m not sure why I’m commenting.
He is not that green. This was supposed to be a very polished college bat. He is just not anything worth rostering in fantasy or writing about on a blog site. He is a mediocre player. That is his present and future.
That’s true, young players who miss significant time with injury in the minors but have shown a lot of promise never improve or develop more power as they mature.
Dumb
Disagree. Even the most polished college bats usually get a longer stay in the minors then Rendon got. And his sparkling lines in college and the minors were due to very good contact numbers. The eye-test confirms this as well, he’s got spectacular bat control and can usually get a piece of things way outside the strike zone. What needs to improve is his pitch selection, especially against righties as noted by the author. As he learns to identify pitchers’ breaking balls and can lay off those low and away, they’ll come back inside on him so he can “rediscover” his pull power. I’m looking to see his BB% trend upward and I think you’ll see his whole offensive set improve as a result
We do know one thing about Rendon: he will not contribute much in either HRs or SBs. He is a much better player in reality than in fantasy (5×5).
I’d bet he contributes more HRs than the average 2B.
Of some concern – LD% way down (-10%) and GB% way up (+15%) in May resulting in a BABIP of .200. You would think some of those grounders will find their way through the infield and the BABIP will increase, but that would not be a good long-term trend. The GB% is not screaming high (+3% over league average) so it’s not like he has gone full-Craig either. He had a big slump in July last year where his GB% jumped, but rebounded in August and Sept, so maybe that’s what he does when he is in a funk.
You’re completely infallible though, right?
The question on every (well many) fantasy owners minds at the start of the season was Rendon or Profar for 2B? I always thought Rendon was the better and safer choice, given how he already has MLB experience and production unlike Profar. And though Profar got injured, I very much doubt he would have bettered Rendon stats this year anyway.
I think Rendon’s performance would look a whole lot better if we didn’t also have Brian Dozier on pace for 40+ HRs and Dee Gordon on Pace for 90+ SBs. He leads the position in RBIs, and is Top 5-7 on Runs, Hits, HR and SLG. I agree maybe not great for standard 5×5 leagues, but in both my leagues he’s Top 5 at the position.
I think the surprise has been his AVG dropping this month — that should be his carrying tool — but from the looks of it, that drop could be blamed on BAPIP, as his May BAPIP was .200
BABIP is low, but why? Batted ball profile is poor this month with only 12.5% line drives compared to 22.1% in April. Also ground balls are up and fly balls are down from April. Maybe he hasn’t been squaring up the ball. But why? He’s walking more and also striking out more, so maybe they are pitching him more carefully now, throwing less strikes in the zone. It would be nice to see a follow-up to this article by Jeff Sullivan at the end of this month.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/it-might-be-time-to-adjust-to-anthony-rendon/
I’d bet the biggest factor is sample size. As noted below, one or two impressive defensive plays could mean the typical line drive numbers don’t translate into typical BABIP
Curious, but isn’t it really just Rendon’s insanely hot first 13 games that buoys his year? I like him and all, but wasn’t he getting close to a league high fastballs in the zone during that stretch?
I think he’s a real hitter and will adjust. Just wondering if he wasn’t a great sell high in April.
The catch by McCutcheon last night tells you what kind of luck he’s been having actually.