Macha(do), Macha(do) Man(ny)

This is what a breakout looks like:

The third overall pick in the 2010 Amateur Draft, Manny Machado made his MLB debut at the tender age of 20 and took baby steps to gradually increase his offensive performance heading into 2015. The power remained ho-hum, he was a poor base stealer, and he was a bit too much of a free swinger, routinely posting below average walk rates. Furthermore, he dealt with major knee issues that required surgery in both 2013 and 2014. But then 2015 happened and he loudly announced his good health and validated why he was a former top prospect.

As you can see from the graph, lots went right this season, as multiple drivers led to his breakout. His walk rate rocketed from well below the league average to comfortably above it. It’s easy to identify how he accomplished such a feat. His Swing%, which had been trending upward, reversed course and plummeted, primarily due to him laying off pitches outside the zone. Whether that’s sustainable or not is anyone’s guess, but it’s certainly a good sign of legitimate growth as a hitter.

In addition, he made more contact with pitches inside the zone and easily posted the lowest SwStk% of his short career. Because he swung significantly less, the improved contact didn’t really translate into an elite strikeout rate, but it’s good to see he has that potential hidden inside if he gets back to swinging a bit more often.

The most obvious improvement, especially from a fantasy perspective, came from Machado’s power. After posting nearly identical batted ball distances in 2013 and 2014, his fly balls and homers gained nearly 20 feet of distance on average. It’s just another data point of support for his offensive surge. However, even with the increased distance, his HR/FB rate only jumped from 15.0% to 17.6%. Perhaps he was a bit fortunate in 2014, as his 2015 HR/FB rate matches better with his distance than his 2014 mark did.

Aside from the jump in batted ball distance, there was another key factor that fueled the power spike. Enjoy a second delightful graph, this time of his fly ball rate:

There are three, and only three, variables that directly impact a hitter’s home run total (besides playing time, of course) — how often the hitter makes contact (K%), how frequently the hitter’s batted ball is of the fly ball type (FB%), and how often the hitter’s fly balls go over the fence (HR/FB). Compared to 2014, Machado marginally improved in the first and third components, but significantly increased the second component. It wasn’t as much an increase in power as it was a whole lot more fly balls that led to the power jump. If he would have posted a FB% that mirrored his 30.9% mark of 2014, then his home run total would have dropped to 28. On the fly ball rate gain alone, he hit seven additional home runs.

As usual, it’s impossible to predict whether this new fly ball rate will stick. For what it’s worth, it dropped by 3.4% in the second half. That could be a foreshadowing or mean nothing. Like any good projectionist, a reasonable forecast would likely just look at the career mark and up it slightly, giving the most recent season the greatest weight.

The biggest surprise was not that Machado’s power blossomed. Nope. It was most certainly those 20 steals in 28 attempts! This coming from a guy who stole just six bases in 13 attempts in 2013, attempted just two swipes in 2014 after returning from his first knee surgery, and was now returning from another surgery on his other knee! So suddenly speed was part of his game after recovering from operations on both of his knees. Who saw that coming? Crazy. Obviously, we can assume he’s completely healthy and his knee was never an issue. But still, he’s clearly not a burner (just a 4.2 Spd score this year) and has hit just seven triples throughout his career. I’m thinking that even Steamer’s projected regression down to just 15 steals in 23 attempts might even be a bit too optimistic. But who knows. Not me.

Unlike many breakouts, there doesn’t appear to be anything fluky about Machado’s performance. That he did this in his age 23 season makes it all the more impressive. Amazingly, there are actually avenues for growth, which could come from better BABIP luck (although he will have to cut down on all those pop-ups), a notch higher on his HR/FB rate, and getting back to being more swing happy which could further reduce his strikeout rate. I don’t expect the steals to stick though, so further growth would simply offset the loss of stolen base value.