Looking back at 2013 shortstop ADPs

If you drafted a shortstop early this year, chances are you’re looking back and you’re pretty disappointed. That’s because very few of those shortstops drafted as starters in a 12-team league returned positive value relative to their draft positions.

This analysis will use Yahoo’s Average Draft Positions (ADP), and while a lot of people also play in auction leagues, it stands to reason that ADP and auction dollars would be tightly correlated. And of course, comparing ADP to actual value rank perhaps isn’t fair since the context of the rest of a person’s draft is required, but it should still be a good approximation of the majority.

Anyway, with the exception of perhaps Ian Desmond, nobody walked away happy with where they got their starting shortstop, it seems. There were some values to be found by waiting until backup shortstops (or MI positions) were being drafted, and those who jumped early due to positional scarcity weren’t really rewarded.

The table below shows shortstops listed by Yahoo ADP and includes their value rank, the gap and their standard value score, provided by Baseball Monster. The standard score is BM’s means of a catch-all value statistic, and it uses a standardized scores method.

Name	Yahoo ADP	Rank	DIFF	Standard Score
Troy Tulowitzki	17	42	-25	0.31
Hanley Ramirez	29	57	-29	0.11
Jose Reyes	30	121	-91	-0.46
Starlin Castro	44	189	-145	-0.93
Ian Desmond	70	30	40	0.52
Ben Zobrist	70	81	-11	-0.11
Elvis Andrus	72	51	21	0.21
Jimmy Rollins	80	155	-75	-0.75
Martin Prado	96	88	8	-0.19
Asdrubal Cabrera	102	133	-31	-0.56
Alcides Escobar	181	160	21	-0.77
Erick Aybar	183	125	58	-0.48
J.J. Hardy	190	64	126	0.02
Marco Scutaro	199	159	40	-0.77
Josh Rutledge	204	233	-29	-1.17
Everth Cabrera	218	95	123	-0.24
Yunel Escobar	234	136	98	-0.60
Jhonny Peralta	235	111	124	-0.38
Mike Aviles	238	152	86	-0.74
Alexei Ramirez	238	71	167	-0.02
Jed Lowrie	240	83	157	-0.15
Andrelton Simmons	244	122	122	-0.46
Stephen Drew	260	137	123	-0.62
Zack Cozart	262	135	127	-0.58
Jean Segura	268	23	245	0.65

If you drafted Ian Desmond as the fifth shortstop off the board or waited on an Alexei Ramirez type or stashed Jean Segura, you’re probably doing fairly well right now.

Presented another way, here is the table sorted by overall rank, with the same columns shown.

Name	Yahoo ADP	Rank	DIFF	Standard Score
Jean Segura	268	23	245	0.65
Ian Desmond	70	30	40	0.52
Troy Tulowitzki	17	42	-25	0.31
Elvis Andrus	72	51	21	0.21
Hanley Ramirez	29	57	-29	0.11
J.J. Hardy	190	64	126	0.02
Alexei Ramirez	238	71	167	-0.02
Ben Zobrist	70	81	-11	-0.11
Jed Lowrie	240	83	157	-0.15
Martin Prado	96	88	8	-0.19
Everth Cabrera	218	95	123	-0.24
Brian Dozier	UND	107		-0.36
Jhonny Peralta	235	111	124	-0.38
Jose Reyes	30	121	-91	-0.46
Andrelton Simmons	244	122	122	-0.46
Erick Aybar	183	125	58	-0.48
Asdrubal Cabrera	102	133	-31	-0.56
Zack Cozart	262	135	127	-0.58
Yunel Escobar	234	136	98	-0.60
Stephen Drew	260	137	123	-0.62
Mike Aviles	238	152	86	-0.74
Jimmy Rollins	80	155	-75	-0.75
Marco Scutaro	199	159	40	-0.77
Alcides Escobar	181	160	21	-0.77
Starlin Castro	44	189	-145	-0.93
Jose Iglesias	UND	190		-0.93
Brandon Crawford	UND	192		-0.93
Pedro Florimon	UND	196		-0.96
Eric Sogard	UND	210		-1.05
Daniel Descalso	UND	222		-1.13
Nick Franklin	UND	226		-1.14
Brad Miller	UND	227		-1.14
Didi Gregorius	UND	228		-1.14
Josh Rutledge	204	233	-29	-1.17

It shouldn’t be surprising that Segura was the best value, going undrafted in some leagues but ranking as the top shortstop at present. Those who took Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki probably aren’t too disappointed, either, as those owners probably assumed some injury time.

Elvis Andrus kindly displays how you don’t need to be any good to have fantasy value, and J.J. Hardy and Alexei Ramirez demonstrate that the unsexy names you know can really help out.

So, was 2013 just an extraordinarily tough year to evaluate shortstops? It actually appears to at least be a three-year trend that the top-drafted shortstops struggle to return value. Some of this is due to injuries, and perhaps it’s apparent at all positions, but it’s worth keeping in mind for next year.

	Name	Y!/MDC ADP	Rank	DIFF
2011	Hanley Ramirez	2	141	-139
2011	Troy Tulowitzki	4	19	-15
2012	Troy Tulowitzki	5	243	-238
2013	Troy Tulowitzki	17	42	-25
2012	Jose Reyes	20	33	-13
2012	Hanley Ramirez	22	44	-22
2011	Jose Reyes	25	20	5
2013	Hanley Ramirez	29	57	-29
2013	Jose Reyes	30	121	-91
2012	Starlin Castro	40	49	-9
2011	Jimmy Rollins	43	46	-3
2013	Starlin Castro	44	189	-145
2012	Elvis Andrus	47	80	-33
2011	Derek Jeter	53	75	-22
2013	Ian Desmond	70	30	40
2013	Ben Zobrist	70	81	-11
2012	Asdrubal Cabrera	71	106	-35
2013	Elvis Andrus	72	51	21
2011	Elvis Andrus	75	43	32
2012	Jimmy Rollins	78	28	50
2013	Jimmy Rollins	80	155	-75
2011	Alexei Ramirez	81	84	-3
2013	Martin Prado	96	88	8
2013	Asdrubal Cabrera	102	133	-31
2011	Stephen Drew	112	218	-106
2012	Derek Jeter	113	31	82
2012	J.J. Hardy	135	122	13
2012	Alexei Ramirez	141	115	26
2012	Dee Gordon	141	222	-81
2011	Rafael Furcal	143	253	-110
2011	Starlin Castro	153	36	117
2012	Erick Aybar	163	116	47
2011	Ian Desmond	168	117	51
2011	Asdrubal Cabrera	180	29	151
2013	Alcides Escobar	181	160	21
2013	Erick Aybar	183	125	58

	Positive	Negative
Top-50	1	12
Top-100	6	17
Top-12 SS	15	21

The position is definitely a scarce one, but a lot of the value comes from late picks. The top names will always remain valuable because when healthy, they’re so much better than the rest of the lot.

But it seems pretty clear that the strategy for 2014 should be to wait beyond the top-100 picks for your shortstop unless you’re really enticed by a top name. This might even hold truer in 2014 with how the depth at the position has improved with some young additions later in the year.