Let’s Talk Busts — Potential Hitter Buy Low Targets, Jun 9, 2025

I’m one of those who screams small sample for weeks on end after the season begins, but even I start to lose patience after one of my hitters goes 0-for-4 yet again. As we hit around the 40% mark of the season, it’ll likely be much easier to buy slow starters at a discount to their draft day cost. But do you want to? Let’s review a slew of underperformers so far and try to figure out who is most worth targeting in trade or holding tightly if you have the misfortune of owning any.

Used the default Auction Calculator settings, I compared the ATC projected dollars to the actual dollars earned so far. I also adjusted anyone who has earned less than $0 to $0. A lot of the significant negative values are due to low playing time thanks to injuries, or poor play from mediocrity that likely would have just been dropped without doing as much team damage as the dollar value suggests (unless you’re in a mono league where you have little choice but to keep your fingers crossed for a rebound). Let’s get to the names.

Isn’t it nice to not only own Yordan Alvarez for the first time, but own him in two of three leagues this year?! Sure, he last played on May 2 as he sits on the IL with a hand injury, but he had been a massive disappointment over the 121 PAs he had recorded before getting hurt. His xwOBA suggested most of it was just poor fortune, which is the good news. However, it was also lower than his actual wOBA and xwOBA throughout his career, so even with neutral luck, he would have been a bit disappointing. All his Statcast metrics, while they looked excellent for an average hitter, were actually down for a studly one like Alvarez. It’s possible the injury had been affecting him, but either way, I would imagine that if fully healthy, he’ll hit as expected upon his return.

After a breakout fantasy and real life season in 2024, Gunnar Henderson’s 2025 season began late as he opened the season on the IL. That said, he’s still accrued 242 PAs, so this is no longer a playing time thing. Everything here looks fairly normal, with the big dropoff coming from his HR/FB rate, which has declined from 23.9% to 14.5%. That’s a bit surprising given his HardHit% and maxEV are actually slightly higher than last year, but his Barrel% has dropped down into the high single digits. He also hasn’t been able to maintain last year’s strikeout rate improvement. Oh, and somehow he’s recorded just 17 RBI this year, which seems very hard to do while hitting eight home runs and batting second or third in the lineup. I actually called out Henderson as a bust in this year’s USA Today fantasy special issue, so this isn’t too surprising. But I do think his HR/FB rate will increase over the rest of the season.

Jackson Merrill missed a month due to a strained hamstring, which has obviously reduced his counting stats and hampered his fantasy value. While his home run power has been maintained, a jump in strikeout rate and drop in FB% has affected his home run upside. Furthermore, he’s swiped just one base, after stealing 16 last year. Perhaps the hamstring injury has affected his willingness to run, so it’s anyone’s guess if that changes over the rest of the season. He’s still a solid all-around player, but without the steals, he’s far less interesting as a buy low.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did exactly this last year when he finished the month of May with just five home runs. He then hit eight homers in both June and July, en route to his second best offensive season. Everything here, including his Statcast metrics, looks fantastic. His maxEV is the highest of his career and truly elite at 120.4 MPH, while his Barrel% has inched up again to the second highest mark of his career. I still can’t understand why he continues to hit a lower than average rate of fly balls, but it is what it is. His xwOBA suggests he’s enjoying another MVP-caliber offensive performance, but the power results just haven’t come. He looks like a prime target, especially in OBP leagues as he’s walking at a career high clip.

Are Mets fans surprised that their high-priced superstar Juan Soto has disappointed so far? Probably not! Statcast thinks it’s all been bad luck. Like Guerrero, everything here is right in line with his history, so it’s pretty shocking to see a sub-.200 ISO. The good news is he has already matched last year’s stolen base total, so those steals are taking some of the sting away from the low batting average and only 11 home runs. Will you be able to convince your league’s Soto owner to let him go significantly cheaper than his draft day cost? It’s worth a try! Though his average bat speed is down nearly two miles per hour, it hasn’t affected any of his Statcast metrics.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. missed a chunk of time to injury and has recorded just 143 PAs so far. Yes, his strikeout rate has regressed and jumped back over 30% for a career worst, which combined with a career worst BABIP, has crushed his batting average. But the power and speed have been there, and he’s suddenly become an extreme fly ball hitter, which has upped his home run output. He’ll be fine.

We got word that William Contreras has been playing with a fractured finger since last year, which sounds painful. We don’t know when he hurt it last year as he enjoyed another strong offensive campaign. Perhaps it has affected him more this year? His HardHit% and Barrel% are both down meaningfully, so you gotta wonder whether or not it’s the finger or just a slow start. His BABIP has also falled below .300 for the first time since a partial 2021 season. You really never know with catchers how banged up they really are, so he’s a tougher trade target than a non-catcher. This is especially true knowing he’s actually injured, but not knowing the extend it has affected his hitting.

Ronald Acuña Jr. is back! He’s done his best to try making up for the missed time and he’s swatted four homers already. The only question now is how often he’ll run. He hasn’t even attempted a steal yet, so his willingness is going to dramatically affect his fantasy value the rest of the way.

It just goes to show how highly valuable Bobby Witt Jr. was projected to be that even by earning $30 so far, he still cracked the top 10 biggest disappointments. It’s certainly not because of his steals, as he has already swiped 21 bases. It’s definitely the home run power as he’s coming off two straight 30-homer seasons with HR/FB rates just over 13%. He’s hit just seven this year with a career low 8.1% HR/FB rate. This is despite posting elite Statcast metrics as always. It’s not even an unfriendly home park thing either, as even his road HR/FB rate is in the single digits, though slightly higher than his home mark. A quick glance at his flyball Pull% gives us the answer, or at least most of it — he has rarely pulled his flies this year and it’s down from his previous four years. Instead, he’s going the opposite way like crazy, and that’s just not ideal for hitting home runs. His power will only rebound once he gets back to pulling his flies.

So you can all bask in my misery, I’m going to keep a tally of all the hitters on this list that I own in my local league I commish. Exhibit number two is Yainer Diaz, whose rates are all pretty normal, except for his BABIP that’s plummeted from .338 to just .253. His power has actually benefited from a spike in FB% and his xwOBA is actually higher than last year. I’m optimistic his end of season numbers will look a lot closer to last year.

What has happened to Michael Harris II?! His BABIP is in freefall, along with his ISO, which is down to a microscopic .108. His Barrel% is now a below average 6.1%. These are not the trends you expect to see from a 24-year-old former top prospect. At least he’s still stealing bases, already matching last year’s total. Since he wasn’t expected to be a huge home run contributor, one hot week could put him right back on pace. So perhaps he makes for a reasonable buy low, especially as his xwOBA sits significantly higher than his actual mark.

Gosh, Salvador Perez is the third catcher on the list, reminding us how silly we are for actually paying sticker price for catchers on draft day (that’s usually me, though not always!). It’s all about the loss of power here, which is bizarre given that his Statcast metrics look fabulous. Unlike Witt, Perez continues to pull his fly balls at an above average clip, so I can’t comprehend how he has posted just a 5.1% HR/FB rate and .116 ISO so far. Statcast can’t understand it either as his xwOBA is right in line with past years. If you need catcher help, and I’m sure most of you do, he’s a prime target methinks.

Corey Seager has missed his usual time with injury, which has hampered his counting stats and fantasy value so far. Along with that, he’s striking out at a career worst clip, which is a bad combo with the second lowest BABIP of his career. The power metrics look good though, so it’s really just about the strikeouts, which aren’t significantly worse than usual, just worse. With a dramatically higher xwOBA than actual, he’s an easy buy target.

Holy guacamole, Adley Rutschman makes for the fourth catcher on this list. So I guess the lesson is unless your name is Cal Raleigh, don’t pay for top catchers. Rutschman’s issues mostly stem from a career worst BABIP, which should improve. Somehow, his HR/FB rate is still stuck in single digits, but his HardHit% and Barrel% sit at career highs. I’m totally buying here, especially in OBP leagues.

Anthony Santander is the third Pod Squad member who has killed my fantasy team. The worst part of it is he was a potential bust in my eyes given last season’s heroics, but I unexpectedly bought him at a discount to his projected value, and he has still been far worse! He’s now on the IL with hip and shoulder injuries, and now I have to wonder how long he’s been affected and how much has his performance suffered as a result. His strikeout rate sits at a career high, combining with career lows in BABIP and HR/FB rate. It hasn’t even been bad luck as his xwOBA is barely higher are .274! As an owner, I just have to hope he returns fully healthy and rebounds. I would likely shy away from targeting him in trade as he doesn’t contribute in average or steal bases, so you’re just praying the power returns.

Ketel Marte’s name appears here solely due to the time missed to injury. He has been magnificent during his time on the field and has so far proven that last year’s HR/FB rate outburst was no fluke.

Isn’t it great when you learn that you’re player has been playing through an injury, which might explain a disappointing offensive performance? Marcell Ozuna is yet another of my fantasy team’s hitters who has failed to earn his cost. It’s not totally obvious what has fueled the underperformance, but some of it is due to a drop in FB% to his lowest since 2019. That has put him on a much lower home run pace, especially when combined with a drop back below a 20% HR/FB rate. You would think that an insane near doubling of his walk rate would result in a runs scored surge, but instead, he’s scored just 30 runs, putting him on just a 78 runs scored pace with the same number of PAs as last year. How can you post a 19% walk rate and be on a pace to score just 78 runs?! He’s also managed just 28 RBI, which really tells you how disappointing the Braves offense has been. Given the injury, I have no idea if he’ll do any better the rest of the season, and I doubt his runs scored pace improves any.

Did you think I was doing complaining about my fantasy team? I WASN’T! Bryan Reynolds is the fourth bust on my team, and he too has battled injury that forced him to DH until mid-April. He’s played right field since then, suggesting that perhaps he’s fully healthy, but that hasn’t mattered. He has struck out at his highest rate since the short 2020 season, despite an improved SwStk%, and his BABIP has dropped below .300 for the first time since that year as well. Surprisingly despite career bests in HardHit% and Barrel%, his HR/FB rate is his lowest since his 2019 debut. He hasn’t been pulling his flies often, but he never has been much of a fly ball pull guy, so he’s not much below his career mark. With a significantly higher xwOBA, I keep starting him each week hoping for the hot streak. But without big upside, he’s not exactly the type to run out and try buying low, unless you’re in a deep mixed or NL-Only league.

I’m surprised to find Mookie Betts on this list as he’s close to his last season pace. But perhaps that’s the issue, as last year was a stark drop from his previous seasons and the projections figured a rebound was in order. Instead, his HR/FB rate hasn’t just failed to rebound back into the mid-teens, but has actually declined further. That’s backed by another drop in HardHit% to a career low, along with his lowest Barrel% since 2017. It’s weird to see such a power outage for a 32-year-old, in which the decline actually started last year. His xwOBA confirms this is no bad luck, but simply just who he is right now. Will his trade cost come down enough to match a 20-homer, 15-steal guy, in which case he’d be worth rolling the dice on hoping he rediscovers his pre-2024 seasons, or are his owners still holding out hope and not reducing his price enough to make him worth targeting?

Let’s end the misery now with my sixth, yes SIXTH, player who has been a bust so far in Willy Adames. Let me remind you that this league employs the standard 14-man starting roster, which means that six of those 14, or 43%, are a top 20 bust (though it’s actually less than 20, since a bunch were knowingly injured at the beginning of the season). It’s therefore no surprise at all that my team has just 15 hitting points out of a maximum of 60 (12 team league)! Okay, rant over. Adames was in the Santander camp for me as an obvious bust this year, but I ended up winning him for a cheaper price than I expected, and so while I thought he might be a bust compared to some owners’ expectations, he was far less likely to be one at the price I paid. Oops. His BABIP sits at a career low, leading to an ugly .193 batting average. But it’s really been about the complete disappearance of his power. His HR/FB rate had dropped from the mid-teens to just 6.2% and his ISO is at a slap-hitter like .111. Most of his Statcast metrics look fine and while his Barrel% is down, it’s still just below double digits and suggests far better than the HR/FB rate he has posted so far.

The knee-jerk reaction is that he’s getting killed by his new pitcher friendly home park, but he has actually posted a higher HR/FB rate there than on the road! With just a .290 xwOBA, it hasn’t even been bad luck, he had just collapsed offensively. Perhaps even worse is that last year’s 21 steals now look like a complete fluke. That should have been obvious, but all the projection systems forecasted around 13-14 steals this year, and he’s well off that pace. Of course, part of the reason is a .281 OBP so he’s had fewer opportunities, and he’s already been caught on two of his five attempts. I don’t know what to think here, but since he never figured to contribute in batting average and the steals are back to his 2024 days, we’re left to just hoping he finds his power stroke. Will it happen? For my fantasy team’s sake, let’s hope!