Let’s Talk Breakouts — Potential Hitter Sell High Targets, Jun 10, 2025

Yesterday, I discussed 20 disappointing hitters when comparing projected to actual dollar value earned, and tried to determine who was worth targeting in trade or patiently holding. Let’s now flip over to the players that have vaulted many teams to the top of the standings. These are the league winners so far, so the question now becomes — will they remain league-winning contributors or regress closer toward their preseason projections? Let’s find out.

Not only has Pete Crow-Armstrong been a fantasy MVP, but he also leads the NL in WAR and ranks third in baseball. The breakout really just comes down to two metrics — a surge in FB% from 42.5% last season to 53.6% this year (6th highest among qualified hitters), and a near doubling of his HR/FB rate. Soooooo, significantly more balls in the air, and a higher rate of those air balls going for home runs. That’s a precise recipe for a massive power breakout. His HardHit% and maxEV are both up, but only marginally, but his Barrel% has nearly doubled into the mid-teens. So to me, it doesn’t appear Crow-Armstrong has actually gained a whole lot more power, but he’s swinging more optimally for power than he had been. He has also pulled his flies significantly more often, which is also good for power.

So will all this last? Odds are the FB% drops back below 50% and he barrels a lower rate of his balls over the rest of the way, though the pulled FB% might stay. He’s already swiped 21 bases and that’s not propped up by a crazy BABIP or OBP, so he should continue running wild. I’d still expect his home run pace to decline and he might not be much of a batting average contributor. So clearly he won’t keep this up, but he should remain a strong fantasy asset and remain on a rest of season pace well above his projected value.

We thought that Cal Raleigh was just a low average, 30-homer guy, right? HA! Everything here is more or less in line with his history, with the only difference really coming from his Barrel% surging to 23.4%, which ranks third in baseball. Oh, and always a pull fly ball guy already, he’s even upped that rate as well, ranking fifth in baseball. And hey, he’s even swiped a career high seven bases already, because why not?! Obviously, I wouldn’t expect this pace to continue, and catchers are always riskier given the rigors of their job. But his current performance is certainly backed by his underlying skills. It’s just anyone’s guess how much his Barrel% regresses. Essentially, he’s maxed out at multiple rates, so the only question is how much regression he suffers from.

Hey, I thought Jacob Wilson was supposed to be a wizard with the bat, but with limited power?! The bat wizardry has been maintained, but he has somehow managed a 14.3% HR/FB rate. That’s despite tiny HardHit% and Barrel% marks, but he’s made the most of those flies with a strong pull rate on them. Pulling fly balls really, really matters when it comes to home run power. Statcast’s xwOBA suggest he has massively overperformed, though it doesn’t account for the power driven by his fly ball pull rate. I’m sure he has overperformed though, but not to the degree the calculation thinks. Since he’s not a big steal guy and I think the home run pace still does drop a bit, then he’s mostly a batting average contributor. For whatever reason, Placido Polanco is always my go-to name when I think of batting average guys with a touch of power and speed. He seems like a great comp here. Since Wilson relies on BABIP, he’s the type of guy I’d look to sell.

Heliot Ramos is essentially doing exactly what he did last year, with some minor differences here and there. I guess the projections weren’t big believers, so he’s simply proving last year was no fluke. I wouldn’t bet on the .352 BABIP continuing, but the power is certainly real. I don’t see a reason to sell high here.

Ughhh, I shied away from Tyler Soderstrom since he lost his catcher eligibility, so figured he’d just be a low average 25-homer corner guy which is close to replacement level in shallow mixed leagues. Instead, he’s increased his power, which now better matches with his Statcast metrics, while his BABIP has jumped. The skills look good here and xwOBA even thinks there’s room for additional upside. I’d hold.

Byron Buxton is on pace for the most PAs of his career! Sorry to all Buxton owners for jinxing him. ATC had him projected for just 425 PAs, which was already optimistic given his past, and he’s currently on pace for 500 and change. He has hit as expected, with the bonus of already stealing 10 bases, a total he hasn’t recorded since 2019. We know he’s good when healthy, so it’s just a matter of not landing on the IL for an extended period of time as usual.

It’s pretty incredible that Aaron Judge was projected to earn 56.6 fantasy dollars and yet still made this list because he has been other-worldly. What’s interesting here is it hasn’t been because of a crazy HR/FB rate. Instead, his strikeout rate is the lowest it’s ever been, despite his highest SwStk%. Hmmmmm. Oh, and that .468 BABIP. That obviously won’t last and his xwOBA is right in line with his previous three seasons. Obviously, you can’t sell high since maybe only Shohei Ohtani might be reasonably expected to outearn him the rest of the way.

A reduced strikeout rate and increased HR/FB rate has resulted in an Andy Pages breakout. The HR/FB rate looks kind of fluky, as all his Statcast are actually down from last year. He has also swiped six bases after stealing just one last year, which is propping up his value. I don’t think you can get a whole lot for him, but I think he’ll be on a weaker earnings pace the rest of the way.

Pete Alonso’s power has rebounded after a down season last year, but also…that BABIP. He’s never been above .280 and here he sits at .335. This is actually skills supported, as his LD% has also surged, his FB% has dropped, as has his IFFB%. So all components of his batted ball profile have moved in a direction beneficial to BABIP. This career year has been fully supported by the skills, but will that batted ball profile and BABIP be sustained? Hitting .300 versus .250 is the difference between a big fantasy profit and breaking even.

After hitting just six homers through the first three months of last season, Eugenio Suarez hit 24 over the final three months. Fluke? Nope! His HR/FB rate now stands at his highest since 2020, and rather than waiting until the final three months, he figured he’d just hit homers all season long. He’s even got some batting average upside as that BABIP can’t get much worse. While odds are he fails to maintain a 20%+ HR/FB rate, I don’t think he’s worth trading away.

James Wood was such an obvious breakout, I regret not going hard here. Last season’s concern was the ultra low FB%, capping his home run output. He’s still low at just 32.1%, but that still represents a big increase. He might not be able to maintain a near 30% HR/FB rate, but man, he’s got elite Statcast metrics. This is a superstar.

A higher FB%, plus a doubling of his HR/FB rate has resulted in a major Maikel Garcia breakout. The power hasn’t actually improved, but he has barreled his balls more frequently, while his BABIP has rebounded back to his 2023 level. Statcast thinks some luck has been involved, so I’d expect everything to regress a bit. But still, he’s a nice little power/speed guy with a batting average that should at least be slightly positive. No sell high for me.

Welcome back Spencer Torkelson! I was optimistic that his big spring training would give him some job security and was early proof that he was en route to a rebound. Everything looks good here and I particularly like the jump in walk rate into double digits. He remains an extreme fly ball hitter, so his BABIP and average will never be good, so he’s basically Adam Duvall with more walks, giving him a big value boost in OBP leagues.

I think a lot of fantasy owners have been betting on a Seiya Suzuki power breakout for years now and it has finally come. Most of his Statcast metrics haven’t changed, but they were already strong, and now his Barrel% has skyrocketed, which has led to the power outburst. If there’s anything to be disappointed about, it’s the lone one steal, after he swiped 16 bases last year. I think this is real.

Ughhh, I’ve owned Hunter Goodman plenty of times in the past, but this year I wasn’t confident the Rockies would give him an extended look, so I was no longer interested. Finally, they made a logical decision to keep him in the lineup! There’s no way he keeps up that .344 BABIP, meaning his batting average is going to fall. But he’s due for a much higher HR/FB rate than the measly 13.5% mark he has posted. So — batting average down, home runs up the rest of the way.

Surprise, Geraldo Perdomo has been a stealth power/speed combo meal so far, even with just an 8.8% HR/FB rate. His Statcast metrics have improved, though still kind of stink, but it shouldn’t take much to maintain a high single digit HR/FB rate. I doubt he offers much trade value and the skills are solid here, so might as well hold on.

Jeremy Peña has reduced his strikeout rate every season so far, which has combined with a career high BABIP this year to push his average above .300. His HR/FB rate has also jumped back into double digits, with marginally improved Statcast metrics. Statcast isn’t buying this start, so you have to expect some regression across the board.

Some of the projection were just laughably too low on Junior Caminero’s power, probably because he posted just a 12.2% HR/FB rate and .176 ISO during his small sample in 2024 with the Rays. What’s really intriguing is his power has jumped while both his strikeout rate and SwStk% have improved, so he’s not just closing his eyes and swinging for the fences like some young guys do. Oh, and HE’S 21 YEARS OLD! He’s not a sell high.

I’m not sure how Brice Turang has outperformed his projections as he seems to be at about pace across the board. The HR/FB rate is slightly higher thanks to a massive jump in HardHit% and Barrel%, and his BABIP has spiked, resulting in a slightly higher batting average. There’s nothing fluky here, and if anything, his steal total might be disappointing after swiping 50 bases last year. Definitely not a sell.