Let’s Look at Jake Arrieta and Collin McHugh and Then Let’s Look at Their Elbows
First you establish that Jake Arrieta and Collin McHugh both soared to new heights due to throwing their breaking balls much more than they ever had before. Then you worry about their elbows.
I mean, the first part is fairly easy. Jake Arrieta had never thrown his slider/cutter/slutter more than 16% in any year before this year, and then he threw it 28% of the time last year. That of course buoyed his swinging strike rate to a career high 10.2% overall — we all know that the slider gets about twice the whiffs as a fastball.
He started throwing the pitch more in fastball counts, too. That helped improve his command because his fastball command is not very good. (This effect is not as obvious, since Arrieta also worked hard with his pitching coach to clean up his mechanics and repeat his delivery better, but let’s run with it.)
Collin McHugh doesn’t quite have the same history, but he hadn’t ever thrown his slider 25% of the time, and then this past season he jumped it to 30.3%. His swinging strike rate also jumped from around league average to a career high at 10.8%. It looks like he had good command anyway.
It’s hard to hate on either of these guys based on the peripherals we are accustomed to using. Both of them had double-digit swinging strike rates, both of them had a great separation between their strikeout and walk rates, and both of them had high strikeout rates. McHugh’s velocity is only average (91.6, or exactly average for a righty), and so is his ground-ball rate (42.1%, average is 44%), but neither is a real asterisk. Arrieta is solid on both counts (93.5 mph, 49.2% GB), so his history of iffy control is at least somewhat mitigated.
I’ve linked Jeff Zimmerman’s post about slider rates and DL chances before. But I thought it might be fun to look at individual seasons that fit the bill. What sort of pitchers have thrown their slider or cutter 28% of the time over 150 innings since 2002? Sometimes the names can make us more nervous than a slight jump in DL%.
In order to leave off the cut fastballs while searching for baby sliders among the cutter group, I sorted the list of cutter throwers by difference between fastball velocity and cutter velocity. I cut all the pitchers whose cutter/fastball velocity differential was more than 2.5 mph. It’s sortable if you want to look at the slider group alone. Days Missed is the number of days missed the season after they threw 28+% sliders.
| Season | Name | FB% | FBv | SL% | CT% | CTv | SL+CT | Days Missed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Jesse Litsch | 24.0% | 89.9 | 11.4% | 43.5% | 85.5 | 54.9% | 162 |
| 2011 | Dan Haren | 34.6% | 90.0 | 0.0% | 47.7% | 85.3 | 47.7% | 19 |
| 2013 | Yu Darvish | 38.2% | 92.9 | 31.6% | 15.7% | 89.2 | 47.3% | 64 |
| 2004 | Randy Johnson | 45.3% | 93.7 | 43.6% | 0.0% | 43.6% | 21 | |
| 2002 | Randy Johnson | 54.9% | 94.5 | 41.9% | 0.0% | 41.9% | 85 | |
| 2007 | Miguel Batista | 41.2% | 92.2 | 2.6% | 38.9% | 87.6 | 41.5% | 17 |
| 2006 | Esteban Loaiza | 46.1% | 89.2 | 11.4% | 29.6% | 85.3 | 41.0% | 127 |
| 2004 | Esteban Loaiza | 52.1% | 89.0 | 17.9% | 22.3% | 86.0 | 40.2% | |
| 2013 | Dan Haren | 40.1% | 88.9 | 0.0% | 39.4% | 85.5 | 39.4% | 4 |
| 2002 | Matt Clement | 57.3% | 91.6 | 39.0% | 0.0% | 39.0% | 16 | |
| 2012 | Madison Bumgarner | 43.4% | 91.1 | 39.0% | 0.0% | 39.0% | ||
| 2008 | Armando Galarraga | 49.2% | 90.2 | 38.6% | 0.0% | 38.6% | 4 | |
| 2013 | Ervin Santana | 54.3% | 92.4 | 38.5% | 0.0% | 38.5% | 7 | |
| 2011 | Ervin Santana | 58.4% | 92.8 | 38.4% | 0.0% | 38.4% | ||
| 2008 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | 52.2% | 91.8 | 23.1% | 15.0% | 88.6 | 38.1% | 108 |
| 2005 | Randy Johnson | 56.0% | 92.7 | 38.0% | 0.0% | 38.0% | 8 | |
| 2013 | Madison Bumgarner | 38.5% | 91.4 | 38.0% | 0.0% | 38.0% | ||
| 2007 | Ian Snell | 52.5% | 92.4 | 37.3% | 0.0% | 37.3% | 12 | |
| 2006 | Jon Lieber | 54.7% | 87.9 | 37.1% | 0.0% | 37.1% | 94 | |
| 2010 | Ervin Santana | 58.1% | 92.5 | 36.9% | 0.0% | 36.9% | ||
| 2012 | Bud Norris | 56.7% | 91.8 | 36.6% | 0.0% | 36.6% | 20 | |
| 2013 | Francisco Liriano | 41.4% | 93.0 | 36.3% | 0.0% | 36.3% | 30 | |
| 2011 | Bud Norris | 50.7% | 92.6 | 36.2% | 0.0% | 36.2% | 29 | |
| 2006 | Ramon Ortiz | 51.6% | 90.6 | 35.2% | 0.7% | 86.5 | 35.9% | |
| 2012 | Dan Haren | 40.1% | 88.5 | 0.0% | 35.6% | 84.6 | 35.6% | 14 |
| 2006 | Randy Johnson | 56.4% | 92.2 | 35.5% | 0.0% | 35.5% | 126 | |
| 2012 | Ervin Santana | 57.4% | 91.7 | 35.3% | 0.0% | 35.3% | ||
| 2008 | Randy Johnson | 51.4% | 90.8 | 35.2% | 0.0% | 35.2% | 63 | |
| 2007 | Jeremy Bonderman | 58.3% | 92.0 | 35.2% | 0.0% | 35.2% | 100 | |
| 2010 | Ryan Dempster | 54.5% | 91.0 | 35.1% | 0.0% | 35.1% | 9 | |
| 2008 | Jake Peavy | 57.4% | 92.1 | 18.1% | 17.0% | 85.5 | 35.1% | 91 |
| 2005 | Esteban Loaiza | 57.5% | 89.6 | 3.5% | 31.6% | 86.6 | 35.1% | 36 |
| 2006 | Doug Davis | 42.4% | 85.6 | 1.4% | 33.6% | 82.8 | 35.0% | |
| 2006 | Miguel Batista | 48.8% | 92.2 | 8.7% | 26.2% | 89.0 | 34.9% | 5 |
| 2002 | Brian Lawrence | 52.8% | 85.0 | 34.6% | 0.0% | 34.6% | ||
| 2009 | Ryan Dempster | 52.9% | 90.6 | 34.3% | 0.0% | 34.3% | ||
| 2011 | Derek Lowe | 50.0% | 88.0 | 25.3% | 8.9% | 85.4 | 34.2% | |
| 2008 | Ervin Santana | 61.4% | 94.4 | 33.9% | 0.0% | 33.9% | 51 | |
| 2010 | Francisco Liriano | 48.6% | 93.7 | 33.8% | 0.0% | 33.8% | 37 | |
| 2011 | Edwin Jackson | 55.0% | 94.5 | 33.7% | 0.0% | 33.7% | ||
| 2007 | John Smoltz | 44.9% | 92.5 | 33.6% | 0.0% | 33.6% | 140 | |
| 2006 | Jeremy Bonderman | 57.8% | 93.3 | 33.6% | 0.0% | 33.6% | 37 | |
| 2002 | Odalis Perez | 50.7% | 90.7 | 33.4% | 0.0% | 33.4% | ||
| 2010 | Bud Norris | 56.2% | 93.6 | 33.1% | 0.0% | 33.1% | 8 | |
| 2002 | Ramon Ortiz | 54.0% | 92.3 | 32.7% | 0.0% | 32.7% | ||
| 2008 | Ian Snell | 62.2% | 92.2 | 32.7% | 0.0% | 85.0 | 32.7% | |
| 2007 | Jake Peavy | 57.6% | 92.5 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 87.3 | 32.5% | 26 |
| 2012 | Barry Zito | 36.8% | 83.9 | 32.5% | 0.0% | 32.5% | ||
| 2011 | Madison Bumgarner | 52.6% | 91.7 | 32.4% | 0.0% | 32.4% | ||
| 2006 | John Smoltz | 46.6% | 92.7 | 32.3% | 0.1% | 88.0 | 32.4% | 20 |
| 2006 | Jeff Weaver | 49.3% | 89.6 | 18.0% | 14.3% | 86.5 | 32.3% | 27 |
| 2008 | Johnny Cueto | 61.1% | 93.4 | 32.1% | 0.0% | 32.1% | 18 | |
| 2009 | Brett Anderson | 52.7% | 92.6 | 32.1% | 0.0% | 32.1% | 76 | |
| 2013 | Bud Norris | 55.1% | 92.4 | 28.4% | 3.6% | 87.2 | 32.0% | 16 |
| 2009 | Kevin Correia | 51.9% | 91.0 | 30.3% | 1.6% | 88.2 | 31.9% | |
| 2012 | Yu Darvish | 47.3% | 92.8 | 14.4% | 17.5% | 89.7 | 31.9% | 19 |
| 2004 | Miguel Batista | 53.5% | 92.6 | 17.3% | 14.6% | 89.3 | 31.9% | |
| 2010 | Hiroki Kuroda | 55.4% | 92.3 | 31.8% | 0.0% | 31.8% | ||
| 2008 | Derek Lowe | 61.3% | 89.2 | 31.8% | 0.0% | 31.8% | ||
| 2007 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | 52.7% | 91.9 | 17.2% | 14.6% | 86.9 | 31.8% | 27 |
| 2002 | Josh Fogg | 51.8% | 88.1 | 31.7% | 0.0% | 31.7% | 31 | |
| 2008 | Dan Haren | 50.3% | 91.1 | 25.1% | 6.6% | 87.8 | 31.7% | |
| 2011 | Michael Pineda | 62.2% | 94.7 | 31.5% | 0.0% | 31.5% | 162 | |
| 2004 | Jon Lieber | 59.1% | 90.1 | 31.4% | 0.1% | 31.5% | ||
| 2011 | Josh Tomlin | 42.3% | 87.9 | 3.4% | 28.0% | 84.9 | 31.4% | 38 |
| 2006 | Dontrelle Willis | 63.3% | 90.5 | 18.9% | 12.4% | 86.3 | 31.3% | 4 |
| 2011 | Ryan Dempster | 57.1% | 90.3 | 31.1% | 0.0% | 31.1% | 33 | |
| 2006 | Kris Benson | 55.5% | 90.2 | 25.2% | 5.8% | 86.9 | 31.0% | 162 |
| 2010 | C.J. Wilson | 49.2% | 90.5 | 12.1% | 18.6% | 87.8 | 30.7% | |
| 2008 | Andy Pettitte | 52.5% | 88.5 | 2.6% | 27.9% | 83.8 | 30.5% | 8 |
| 2012 | Paul Maholm | 41.4% | 87.4 | 30.4% | 0.0% | 30.4% | 39 | |
| 2012 | Hiroki Kuroda | 50.4% | 91.8 | 30.4% | 0.0% | 30.4% | 13 | |
| 2005 | Doug Davis | 51.9% | 87.3 | 5.3% | 25.0% | 84.6 | 30.3% | 9 |
| 2005 | Josh Towers | 57.6% | 87.9 | 28.8% | 1.4% | 84.0 | 30.2% | |
| 2013 | John Lackey | 57.5% | 91.7 | 30.0% | 0.0% | 30.0% | 7 | |
| 2012 | Bruce Chen | 42.1% | 86.3 | 29.9% | 0.0% | 29.9% | ||
| 2005 | Jeremy Bonderman | 59.0% | 93.2 | 29.7% | 0.1% | 86.5 | 29.8% | |
| 2012 | Gavin Floyd | 45.3% | 91.5 | 0.0% | 29.8% | 85.7 | 29.8% | 139 |
| 2002 | Ryan Dempster | 62.8% | 91.0 | 29.7% | 0.0% | 29.7% | 71 | |
| 2009 | Johnny Cueto | 62.2% | 92.7 | 29.7% | 0.0% | 29.7% | ||
| 2006 | Jake Peavy | 59.4% | 92.1 | 14.6% | 15.1% | 87.1 | 29.7% | |
| 2002 | Tony Armas Jr. | 55.1% | 91.8 | 29.6% | 0.0% | 29.6% | 143 | |
| 2013 | Chris Sale | 51.4% | 93.1 | 29.6% | 0.0% | 29.6% | 32 | |
| 2012 | Tommy Hanson | 55.1% | 89.7 | 29.5% | 0.0% | 29.5% | 24 | |
| 2010 | Edwin Jackson | 59.3% | 94.4 | 29.3% | 0.0% | 29.3% | ||
| 2013 | Jeff Samardzija | 53.4% | 94.5 | 18.4% | 10.8% | 91.3 | 29.2% | |
| 2006 | Byung-Hyun Kim | 65.5% | 88.4 | 29.2% | 0.0% | 29.2% | 25 | |
| 2005 | Matt Morris | 44.1% | 89.2 | 26.7% | 2.1% | 86.3 | 28.8% | |
| 2011 | Bruce Chen | 43.9% | 85.8 | 28.7% | 0.0% | 28.7% | ||
| 2013 | Adam Wainwright | 40.5% | 91.1 | 0.0% | 28.5% | 88.0 | 28.5% | 13 |
| 2008 | Hiroki Kuroda | 59.3% | 92.0 | 26.3% | 2.0% | 88.6 | 28.3% | 71 |
| 2005 | Andy Pettitte | 51.3% | 87.9 | 14.8% | 13.5% | 84.5 | 28.3% | 7 |
| 2013 | Matt Cain | 48.8% | 91.2 | 28.2% | 0.0% | 28.2% | 81 | |
| 2010 | Tommy Hanson | 57.0% | 92.7 | 28.0% | 0.0% | 28.0% | 62 | |
| 2011 | Jon Lester | 49.4% | 92.8 | 0.0% | 28.0% | 89.0 | 28.0% | 5 |
| 2005 | Daniel Cabrera | 65.2% | 96.2 | 28.0% | 0.0% | 28.0% | 19 | |
| 2013 | Dan Straily | 59.1% | 90.3 | 28.0% | 28.0% |
This group hit the disabled list 45% of the time the year after they hit this benchmark (compared to 40% for the league). Three of them missed the whole season and ten of them missed more than 100 days. The group as a whole averaged 31 days missed the year after they threw 28+% baby sliders and regular sliders (the average starter sees 19 days on the DL, I don’t have league average days missed.)
But a lot of these guys had been throwing tons of breakers their whole career. Look at only the guys that showed on this list once, and it gets worse — those 28 pitchers averaged 42 games missed the year after they made this list.
So it doesn’t look good for Arrieta in particular, given his past. McHugh is more of a wild card, given his mostly clean slate.
Here’s one weird thing, though. The market doesn’t seenm to care. As in, baseball is allowing more pitchers to do this. Look at the number of pitchers that fit our criteria since 2002 — even if we’re missing some data early on because of classification issues, the recent trend seems real. Either baseball doesn’t think this is a problem, or it thinks this is a problem (for some?), and doesn’t care.
| Season | Total |
|---|---|
| 2002 | 8 |
| 2004 | 4 |
| 2005 | 8 |
| 2006 | 13 |
| 2007 | 6 |
| 2008 | 12 |
| 2009 | 4 |
| 2010 | 9 |
| 2011 | 11 |
| 2012 | 11 |
| 2013 | 13 |
| 2014 | 20 |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
This group hit the disabled list 45% of the time the year after they hit this benchmark. Three of them missed the whole season and ten of them missed more than 100 days. The group as a whole averaged 31 days missed the year after they threw 28+% baby sliders and regular sliders.
What is the comparison though? Are these numbers wildly out of proportion with all pitchers, regardless of breaking ball percentage?
I don’t have average DL days but I put in the 40% league number.
As Neil notes, how is this article at all relevant if we do not have a baseline for the average ML Pitcher? Without that baseline for comparison you can draw no conclusions. Maybe these guys had LESS DL time than the average pitcher. I would give you an incomplete.
Here the thing. I used days missed here and I did it by hand. I know that the average player is on the dl for 19 days, but I don’t have days missed. In any case, these guys hit the DL and stay on it longer than general population. Are you going to change my grade.