Leaving the Danger Zone: Archer is a Pirate

Chris Archer has finally been traded. After 26 years of trade rumors (don’t look that up, it’s accurate), he was finally moved in what ended up being a spirited deadline day despite the blizzard of action in the lead up to July 31st. The Rays moved him to Pittsburgh for Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and PTBNL. Archer has been seen as a disappointment since 2016 with a 4.10 ERA in 498 innings against the backdrop of frontline expectations.

After posting a 3.26 ERA in 535 innings from 2013-15 with the skills to match, Archer was on an ace-level trajectory that hasn’t yet come to fruition. That said, he certainly hasn’t been bad. Let’s be clear about one thing right away: this is a long-term move as much as it is a move to bolster their playoff chances for this year. He’s on the books for $7.7 mil next year and then has team options for $9 and $11 mil in 2020-21 that would require just an epic meltdown of skills or catastrophic injury to not be picked up. What can we expect from the 29-year old righty in Pittsburgh?

Right off the top, we have to acknowledge the upside of getting out of that AL East division. Over his career he has a 4.02 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 16% K-BB rate against his divisional foes versus a 3.40 ERA/1.18 WHIP combo and 20% K-BB against the rest of the league. He was especially rough in Fenway Park (7.29) and Camden Yards (6.59), though he did manage sub-3.50s at Yankee Stadium and Rogers Centre. The home park move is essentially neutral outside of a more favorable HR factor against righties.

Approach is where we could see the biggest changes. The Pirates starters throw the second most fastballs in the league at 62.6%, just behind Cincinnati’s 62.9% mark. Archer has been shaving his fastball usage yearly the last four years with this year’s 46% mark standing as a career-low.Pitch values suggest that amping up fastball usage might not be the best idea for Archer unless the Pirates have some plans to improve it.

Looking at 55 starters with at least 400 innings since the start of 2016, we see that Archer’s fastball pitch value of -25.7 is sixth worst. His slider in that same time is fourth best, but it’s entirely on the shoulders of 2016-17 as he’s running a flat 0.0 pitch value this year. While Archer’s strikeout rate is down (-4 points to 25%), he still has a skills profile that the ERA indicators believe is worthy of a mid-to-high 3.00s (3.62 FIP, 3.75 SIERA). Can the Pirates find a solution to bring down his career worst .343 BABIP? That would be instrumental in getting Archer to the level we expect.

Archer’s two-pitch mix has left him susceptible to trouble the third time through a lineup, but the middle innings have plagued him this year. A .402 BABIP the second time through has saddled him with an .804 OPS, meanwhile his .692 the third time through is his best in three years. I don’t think there’s an obvious “fix” for Archer in his profile, but I’d be surprised if the Pirates didn’t have a gameplan in mind to tweak what he’s doing and maximize his skills.

I doubt they’re just going to say “throw more fastballs!” and be done with it, but rather offer solutions on how to best deploy his fastball. He won’t automatically lose strikeouts just because he’s with Pittsburgh (their SPs are 21st in K% this year; 24th since ’16), but I’d be really surprised if he added back any of the ones lost from last year’s 29% mark. The only consistent strikeout guys we’ve seen under this regime have been Francisco Liriano and A.J. Burnett.

Even Gerrit Cole seemed to underachieve on strikeouts versus what you’d expect from his stuff. Although, J.A. Happ came over in that deadline deal back in ’15 and dropped a 28% mark in 63 innings so maaaaybe we get lucky, but we can’t plan for that. Since Ray Searage has become the full time pitching coach in 2011, they’ve had six seasons of a 24% or better K% (min. 100 IP) plus Happ’s deadline gem. This is in large part because they preach efficiency. Their starters use 3.72 pitches per PA since 2011, an MLB best. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is dead last in that same timeframe at 3.92 (Archer debuted in ’12 so he’s been part of most of it).

Getting out of the AL East and facing a pitcher twice a game should be enough for some improvements over Archer’s current 4.31 ERA/1.39 WHIP. Even if he doesn’t get back to 2013-15 levels (3.26 ERA/1.19 WHIP), this is a boon for NL-only leaguers in need of some pitching and I’d be very aggressive in bidding. There’s upside here for him to go off like Happ, but even the more likely outcomes are better than anything you’d find off an only league wire at this time of year. Plus, he might even see an ocelot.