Last 30 Day Power Surgers

While we feel like pitchers change far more quickly than hitters, that doesn’t mean that hitters never adjust, regress, or improve during the season, moving their true talent level to another level. So let’s take a look at some of the more interesting names on the HR/FB rate leaderboard over the last 30 days.

Well by golly, Willson Contreras is on quite the tear. After starting the season merely well, with monthly HR/FB rates of 14.3%, 25%, and 19%, his power has been off the charts since July, as his HR/FB rate skyrocketed to 33.3% that month, and he’s already hit five homers in just 22 August at-bats, for an absurd 71.4% HR/FB rate. On the year, his HR/FB rate stands at a robust 28%, though his Brls/BBE is far less impressive at 11.5%. He’s also not even hitting a ton of balls to the pull side or the opposite way, so this power spike looks quite unsustainable.

Steven Souza Jr. has always teased with a nice combination of power and speed, but tons of strikeouts and health issues have curbed our enthusiasm. Now, he’s swinging and missing less and the power is through the roof. Souza’s season long Brls/BBE mark is only marginally higher than Contreras’ at 12.5%, though, so this is simply not the profile of a near 30% HR/FB rate hitter. He does hit the ball to the pull and opposite fields a bit better than Contreras, but not significantly so. He should continue to contribute positive value in shallow leagues, especially those that use OBP, but power regression is coming.

Nick Williams was one of the more recent beneficiaries of the Phillies youth movement, and he hasn’t disappointed. It would be nice to see him walk more often, but at least he is striking out less than at Triple-A. It’s a suspect strategy though, as he makes pretty terrible contact, but makes up for his whiffy ways by swinging at everything. He’s basically been a more extreme version of Adam Jones, but Jones is the exception that makes this approach work. Unfortunately, Williams’ Brls/BBE is actually barely above the league average, sitting in the high single digits! That’s no good. His fly ball profile is pretty crazy — just a 5.3% Pull%, but 52.6% Oppo% I guess it’s a pretty good sign that he has been able to post a HR/FB rate above 20%, while rarely pulling his flies.

I include Andrew McCutchen here because he endured the worst offensive season of his career last year and now he’s enjoying a complete rebound. It’s literally like last year never happened. The bad news? His Brls/BBE has been the worst of this bunch so far! At just 7.6%, he’s essentially sitting at league average, and given his tough home park, one wonders how he has been able to muster a high teen HR/FB rate. I wouldn’t count on him ending the season there.

So we keep questioning Marwin Gonzalez and he just keeps hitting, and hitting for power. His Brls/BBE is actually below the league average so I simply can’t understand how his HR/FB rate has been so high. He’s the type that will finish the year with strong stats, get drafted in the top 10 rounds next year, and then lose his starting job, or just disappear with poor performance. There doesn’t seem to be anything validating this power breakout at all, so just know that if you’re an owner, a 30 day span of 0 homers is a larger possibility than you may think.