Last 30 Day Pitcher Strikeout Rate Callouts

Since pitcher skills seemingly change more frequently than hitters, it’s more beneficial to analyze them over smaller sample sizes than it is for hitters. Normally, I wouldn’t care much for a hitters skills over just 30 days, but for pitchers, there’s a better chance it represents a change in true talent level. So let’s discuss some of the more interesting names appearing on the first page of the strikeout rate leaderboard over the last 30 days. Obviously, this isn’t going to be all that actionable for this season, but it could help shape projections and player values in 2020.

Given the year Lucas Giolito has had, it’s far less surprising now to see him ranked second in strikeout rate over the last 30 days than it was toward the beginning of the season. But that doesn’t mean it’s not still worth discussing. Remember, Giolito posted a 16.1% strikeout rate last year. He has nearly doubled that mark this year! I wonder where his strikeout rate increase ranks in history. I have to imagine pretty darn good, as it has jumped 15.6% so far. That’s pretty crazy. There are two clear drivers — he has gained nearly two miles per hour of fastball velocity (remember back to his scouting reports, it seems like this was more of a regaining after he lost some velocity in previous years), and he has essentially ditched his curve ball (which oddly was supposed to be his best pitch) for his elite changeup. It will be interesting to see if he could maintain the majority of his strikeout rate gains if he can’t keep his velocity spike.

After missing several starts to injury, Andrew Heaney has returned with a vengeance, boosting his strikeout rate above 30%, and also suddenly displaying sterling control. His velocity hasn’t changed any and his pitch mix doesn’t seem altered, so it’s hard to explain the sudden dominance. I worry about all the fly balls, though he’s in a good home park to help keep those in play. If his ERA finishes above 4.00, he’ll likely appear on lots of sleeper lists next season.

Jake Odorizzi has been posting a career best strikeout rate all season and he hasn’t slowed down a bit. He’s another fastball velocity gainer and since we know what he’s done with lesser velocity, you’ll want to get his readings next spring training before investing. Over his last 30 days, his velocity has been down a notch from where it was earlier in the year, so that doesn’t explain his strikeout rate surge. He has thrown his splitter a bit more and that has been a mid-teen swinging strike generator, so that could be one driver of the recent spike. I still worry that his swinging strikes are coming from his four-seamer and sinker, both pitches that don’t normally generate mid-teen SwStk% marks. Since all his breaking balls are in the mid-single digits, he cannot afford for his velocity to drop back to previous levels, making him a real risk next year.

All Sonny Gray needed to do is get out of New York! Orrrrrr, he just needed to join the National League. I still like his overall skill set, though would like to see him get that walk rate reduced. Keep in mind that his SIERA is still around 4.00, so this is really just getting back his previous fortunes.

Hello Max Fried! Most of his skill set isn’t surprising, except for his walk rate, which now sits at the lowest mark of his professional career. I like his overall skill set as well, as he does everything well. Is it sustainable? Well, all four of his non-four seam pitches sport double digit SwStk% marks and his four-seamer is generating a slightly higher than league average SwStk% mark for the pitch. That’s a good sign that he’s not relying on one pitch or a fastball with unsustainable success.

I guess a 2.72 ERA over seven starts wasn’t enough for the Marlins to keep Zac Gallen, and he’s continued the sub-3.00 ERA ball with the Diamondbacks. He has carried his Triple-A strikeout rate spike into the Majors, driven by an impressive SwStk% mark, which itself has been fueled by an excellent four-pitch mix. Like Fried, all his non-fastballs have generated double digit SwStk% marks, with his changeup being elite at over 20%. His four-seamer has also been excellent a notch below 10% in SwStk%. The depth of his repertoire bodes well for his future.