Largest ADP Differences in Mock Draft Central

It is hard to believe, but mock draft season is already in full force. According to Mock Draft Central’s latest ADP report, there have already been 109 qualifying drafts, as well as 3 expert drafts. What’s cool about their ADP reports is that they publish the expert league ADPs separately so you can compare what the industry is thinking about a player with how the general public feels. I thought it would be interesting to see which players had the large differences between their regular ADP and expert league ADP. Below are the 10 players with the biggest differences, with the one caveat being that at least one of the ADP values had to represent a pick in the top 10 rounds. So any player with both ADP values above 120 were eliminated.

Justin Morneau– Clearly, the general public is expecting a much healthier version of Morneau than the experts. Although it was just reported that his concussions have not been an issue right now, he had wrist surgery at the end of September, and surgery on his knee and foot in mid-September. I think the public has been drafting him way too earlier, but the experts are probably giving him too little credit for the potential to rebound. I would say a pick closer to the mid-point of the two ADPs would be fair.

Drew Storen– Not sure why the disconnect here, though there seems to be some sort of love fest for Storen by the public. Why he would be drafted at the end of the 6th round is beyond me. Storen is nothing special as a closer, so the experts have it right.

Jason Kipnis– Here is our first example of a less hyped prospect flying under the radar. Kipnis wasn’t a huge prospect and apparently couldn’t make a name for himself to the public in 136 at-bats in Cleveland. He has good power and some speed though, so he brings a nice combination of skills to a scarce position. I’m siding with the experts once again.

Jose Valverde– A guady saves total and significant luck obscures the fact that Valverde’s peripherals are in free fall and he posted the worst SIERA/xFIP marks of his career. Obviously, the public doesn’t look past the shiny ERA and saves, but I think the middle of the 14th round by the experts is a tad too late. Maybe by just a round. Either way, the experts are closer here on Valverde’s value.

Matt Wieters– Part of the difference here is likely because of differing roster requirements. I would bet that the expert drafts required two catchers, while the public drafts mostly one. This would cause most catchers to fall in public drafts. However, Wieters has been the fifth catcher off the board in expert drafts, but eighth in public drafts. I would lean toward him being the fifth most valuable catcher as a low BABIP means he has nice batting average upside, and the power surge was likely no fluke.

Alexei Ramirez– Hard to say what may have caused the discrepancy here. Even though he’s only been in the league for four seasons, he’s already 30 and has shown no growth. Maybe the public has gotten tired, as Ramirez simply seems boring. According to Last Player Picked, Ramirez was the 116th most valuable overall player last season. Assuming he steals a couple of more bases this year, I think the experts have nailed it yet again with a 107 ADP.

Johnny Cueto– No surprise to see his name on this list. Cueto was one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball last year, with over a run and a half difference between his ERA and SIERA/xFIP marks. The experts know this, the public, not so much apparently. This new ground ball strategy is nice and all for real baseball, but it has further reduced his strikeouts, which as we all know, is not good for his fantasy value. Score yet another for the experts.

David Freese– This one is a surprise. Not because he is on the list, but because it’s the experts who have valued him more highly, rather than the public. I would have thought the opposite after his postseason heroics. Sure, he has some power potential if you look back far enough through his minor league record, but it’s not great power, and guys like him who rely on a high BABIP to drive their batting average are risky. He will almost assuredly be overvalued in next year’s drafts, and for the first time, I am siding with the public ADP.

Ben Zobrist– Does the public believe that Zobrist’s 2011 and 2009 were the fluke, while his 2010 season is closer to his true talent level? Obviously, the public’s ADP suggests they don’t fully believe his performance was real this season. I think it is. He’s done it before and there is absolutely nothing in his stat profile that stands out as a red flag. The experts get back on the scorecard.

Erick Aybar– I had no idea how solid a fantasy contributor he was until I pulled up his stats. Last year, according to the same Last Player Pick report, he was the 85th most valuable player. Since he set career highs in multiple categories, the odds are he regresses some. Though, with the arrival of Albert Pujols, he has a chance to improve upon his 71 runs scored. I would say the experts are closer here, but I still would probably wait another round after their ADP.