LABR Weekend Thoughts: Free Agents, Inflation, & a Heavy Heart

The LABR only league auctions are a fantastic way to start off the fantasy season (AL and NL results). I’m co-captaining one of the AL-only teams with Eno Sarris who is making one last attempt for a championship. Here are some takeaways from the weekend.

For a quick rundown of the rules.

• 12 teams
• 23 players, 9 pitchers, 14 hitters (two catchers)
• 5×5 roto with AVG
• $260 budget

1. Free agent valuations

In both auctions, owners could bid on free agents with the hope they will eventually sign with a team in that league. It’s a gamble that can pay off or be wasted resources. We decided to not invest much in this group and maybe just go a dollar or two on the starting pitchers since they are easier to replace.

Here are how the major available free agents were valued. The “AL-value” is the player’s value using our calculations. They could be different for the NL.

Across the board, the values were generally split with the combined totals being close to the AL-only value. Except for Jake Arrieta.

In the NL-only draft, Arrieta went to Mike Gianella for $16 with our full-season value being set at $14. He paid more than the projected surplus. Nothing seems imminent with Arrieta going to the NL, so on the surface, Gianella may have overpaid but maybe he knows something the rest of us don’t.

Also, Ray Flowers decided to go all in with the picking of four of the free agents (Lucroy, Arrieta, Holland, and Gonzalez) in the AL-only portion. He has the chance to look good or bad depending on where they eventually sign.

For owners facing the same dilemma in their own leagues, these players are gambles. They could pay off carry or sink a team from the start. The key is for each owner to understand their own risk level and go into their ‘Only’ with a preset plan on how they want to bid on these free agents.

2. Early auction inflation

Early in the draft, someone threw out Hanley Ramirez and he went for $9. A few picks later, someone noticed the team who won Hanley already had their Utility spot filled. Hanley is qualified at DH only so he was thrown back into the pool. And forgotten about.

Over an hour later, he was thrown out again and only went for $5. We guessed this devaluation would occur because of the auction’s early inflation. In almost every auction I’ve participated in has some early inflation based on a player’s projection and cost. Then, owners will spend less for worse players once the talent curve flattens.

Here a graph comparing the actual versus projected costs.

The cost and production value crossed around the $15 point. Any player projected for under $15 was likely to come at a discount. Now, this discount doesn’t happen immediately in auctions as owners have plenty of money to throw around. But it has to happen at some point.

Now there can be various levels of inflation but projected $10 players almost always go for a discount. Owners should not pay full price early on for these cheaper players. Their costs will eventually come down.

3. Evaluating and projecting 24 AL catchers sucks.

No, it really sucks.

4. And finally…

It was a tough weekend for everyone involved to find out during the two days Steve Moyer passed away earlier in the week. I last saw Steve in Arizona a few months earlier as he was displaying his newest pitch tracking device. Even though I didn’t know him as well as other in the fantasy community, I respected and looked up to him as a person. He’ll be missed.

RIP: Steve Moyer (1960-2018) https://t.co/knZQmDWZ0I pic.twitter.com/OLgKjXnClN

— lawr michaels (@lawrmichaels) March 4, 2018