Kyle Seager: Opposite Field Trend an Illusion?

Playing in a West Coast market isn’t always the most pleasurable of tasks. With a majority of games that take place largely after much of the country has gone to sleep, it’s often quite difficult for those types of clubs to generate the type of buzz that those on the East Coast or in the Midwest manage to lay claim to. It’s why so many have gone without noticing the Seattle Mariners’ success this season, and it’s why even fewer have gone without noticing what Kyle Seager is putting together at the hot corner this season.

But Seager has managed to keep himself firmly in the picture as a potentially elite third sacker, as he’s piecing together a mighty impressive campaign for a Mariners squad that is second in the American League West to the Texas Rangers and currently finds itself atop the AL wild card picture. He’s coming off of another solid, if unspectacular year in 2015, as well as being mired in a tough stretch back in April, but could very well be on pace for the best season of his career in a number of respects.

In 2015, Seager slashed .266/.328/.451/.779, with a walk rate that was almost identical to the previous year (7.9% to 8.0% in 2014), and a strikeout rate that managed to dip to 14.3% after an 18.0% mark in the previous year. His .185 ISO ranked ninth among qualifying third basemen, as did his 116 wRC+. While there was a slight regression for Seager almost across the board, with the exception of his K-rate, that could largely be attributed to a BABIP that dipped down to .278. Even so, the regression wasn’t significant in really any respect. Which might make it less surprising that Kyle Seager is currently in the midst of what could be a career campaign in 2016.

At 14.8%, Seager has the eighth lowest strikeout rate among qualifying 3B, while his 9.4% walk rate sits in 11th. His .225 ISO, while ranking 10th among that group, would represent a career high for him, as would his current wRC+ of 136, which ranks seventh. A potent Mariners lineup, which ranks fourth in the league (and second in the AL) in runs, has set him up for success in terms of knocking in runs, as his 39 RBIs rank fifth among the group. He’s hit over .300 with both men on base and in scoring position, while he’s maintained a .292 average in high leverage situations. A player that was already an attractive option on the fantasy side has only established himself more so, in a lineup that gets on base around him, as he’s provided good power, produced in key spots, and hasn’t struck out a lot. With that, there have been a few notable changes that have allowed Seager to maintain this kind of success.

Seager’s batted ball tendencies feature an uptick in hard contact, as his 37.2% mark represents an increase from about four percent off of last season. That is perhaps the most significant change in the type of contact that he’s making. His actual contact rate hasn’t changed much, as it’s fluctuated by less than two percent (down to 81.6% from 83.2% last year), nor has his approach, as his 45.2% swing rate is a minuscule 0.3% change from 2015. So what exactly is it that is allowing Seager to experience relative improvement in his ability to not only solid contact, but reach base at a higher rate than he has at any point in his career?

In a development somewhat similar to that of Mike Moustakas, Kyle Seager has spent the 2016 year showcasing an ability to take the ball to the opposite field. Or so it would seem. His 28.4% oppo rate is the highest mark of his career, and an increase of about five percent from last year. While his swing tendencies haven’t changed in terms of the pitch types at which he’s hacking, there has been a notable change in his tendency to swing at pitches on the outer half of the strike zone. Below illustrates the change in his Swing% from 2015:

To 2016:

There are obviously still some tendencies to swing at pitches on the inside part of the plate, which we’ll get to in a moment, but the real notable change here is on the outer half of the plate. It’s by no coincidence that as Seager’s plate coverage has improved, so has his ability to take the ball to the opposite field. That increased ability to take the ball to the opposite field can also be reflected in his ISO, which has changed in certain parts of the zone, specifically on that outer half of the plate. Below is the change from 2015:

To 2016:

However, while this would appear to indicate a very real change in the game of Kyle Seager, that may not necessarily be the case. The interesting thing here is that each of these graphs reflects the total body of work for 2016. His monthly splits, however, would actually indicate that he’s going opposite field quite a bit less. An Oppo% of 34.3% in April has carried his overall percentage for the year, while the two months that followed have featured percentages of 26.3% and 19.1%, respectively. If that’s the case, then to what do we attribute Seager’s apparent improvement that is taking place seemingly across the board?

Better luck could certainly be a factor. In May, Seager went for a BABIP of .378, with a .476 mark coming into the second full week of play in June. He made consistently hard contact in May, with a 40.0% Hard%, and has made soft contact less than five percent of the time thus far in June. He was a touch more aggressive in May than in April, but it paid off because he saw significantly more hard stuff against less breaking and offspeed pitches. That type of trend would certainly lead to one making better contact, as well as the subsequent BABIP increases that have followed Seager throughout the season (at least since April).

If we’re going to come to some sort of conclusion regarding Kyle Seager and his noted improvement, it would seem that the increased tendency to take the ball to the opposite field is actually an illusion. The actual improvement, however, is not. Since April, Seager has managed to swing at more fastballs and make harder contact, and in doing so, he’s dragged that Hard% up with him. As such, his average, on-base percentage, and everything that goes along with it, have helped to make Seager return from solid-if-unspectacular to player-to-watch in just a few short months for the Seattle Mariners.