Kole Calhoun Delivers a Profit

Heading into the 2014 season, Kole Calhoun enjoyed some sleeper love as the prospect of hitting atop a a solid Angels lineup made him an intriguing outfield option. And despite missing over a month with an ankle injury, he still managed to finish just outside the top 30 outfielders at 33, versus our consensus rank of 42.

Calhoun’s season, from surface results to underlying metrics, were generally right in line with expectations. In fact, I could end this article right now by saying that he did what he was supposed to do, and that’s that. Both his strikeout and walk rates were around the league average, he seemingly didn’t benefit from any unsustainable BABIP luck. Even his batted ball distance hovered around league average, but it was still enough to drive an above average HR/FB rate.

Perhaps the one slight disappointment was his steals total. It’s true that he stole just two bases in four attempts in 2013 in about a third of a season, which was a similar pace to what he swiped this year. But, he always stole double digit bases in the minors and his upside seemed to be as a 20/10 guy. However, it would make sense that after his ankle injury, he was either not 100% upon his return or didn’t want to risk reinjuring the ankle.

Interestingly, Steamer isn’t even aware of his ankle injury possibly being the culprit behind his speed decline, yet projects an increase in attempts above and beyond what just the jump in plate appearances would yield. I agree with Steamer that I expect Calhoun’s stolen base rate to increase next year. Aside from that speed upside, he may even have some hidden BABIP upside. To begin, he had always posted inflated marks in the minors. While we know those don’t translate perfectly, I’m quite confident there would be a meaningful correlation. Given his penchant for line drives, a below average fly ball rate and a career IFFB% below the league average, he may be able to hit .320-.330 on balls in play.

One concern about Calhoun’s playing time is that he was benched every so often against left-handed starters. It’s true that he has hit better against righties of course, but he hasn’t crapped the bed against southpaws over his short career either. His career wOBA sits at .330 against them, versus .342 off right-handers. It doesn’t scream platoon, though the Angels may still sit him every so often, which means that he might not get the same number of plate appearances as a right-handed leadoff hitter.

There was nothing fluky in Calhoun’s statistical profile this year. With the potential for a higher rate of steal attempts, some hidden batting average upside and better health resulting in additional plate appearances, he stands a good chance of pushing his way into the top 30 outfielders this year.