Kicking Big Rocks: Extreme Park Factors and Batted Ball Data

Today, let’s make some useful data available for reference on a couple of a subjects — park factors and pitcher batted ball data.

Extreme Park Factors

With Carlos Quentin getting traded to the Padres and the resulting discussion on how his power translates to San Diego, I decided to make available the most extreme park factors in the league. I used the handedness data available at Statcorner.com. I only looked at values that are 10% higher or lower than the league average. Also, I made available the factors that are the most relevant to fantasy baseball, Line Drives (major component of BABIP and AVG) and Home Runs. The park factors are for hitters with a value over 100 helping a hitter and a value below 100 hurting a hitter.

Line Drives

PF	Team	Hand
129	COL	RHH
128	COL	LHH
118	TEX	RHH
113	DET	LHH
113	STL	LHH
113	DET	RHH
113	STL	RHH
111	TEX	LHH
110	TBR	LHH
89	LAD	LHH
87	LAD	RHH
82	HOU	RHH
81	ATL	RHH
80	HOU	LHH
80	ANA	RHH
78	ANA	LHH
78	ATL	LHH

Notes
•  It is not surprising to see Colorado and its thin, dry air at the top of the leader boards. These high park factors almost makes any decent hitter playing at Colorado a must fantasy start.
•  At the other end of the spectrum are some teams that play in humid, heavy air like Houston and Atlanta.

Home Runs

PF	Team	Hand
143	NYY	LHH
138	CWS	RHH
133	CIN	RHH
126	CWS	LHH
123	BAL	RHH
120	PHI	RHH
120	CIN	LHH
119	TEX	LHH
119	CHC	LHH
118	BAL	LHH
118	MIL	LHH
117	COL	RHH
117	HOU	RHH
116	TOR	RHH
116	PHI	LHH
116	LAD	LHH
115	NYY	RHH
114	TEX	RHH
114	TOR	LHH
114	AZ	LHH
113	COL	LHH
89	TBR	LHH
89	OAK	LHH
88	DET	LHH
87	CLE	RHH
85	KC	RHH
82	STL	LHH
82	SFG	LHH
82	SEA	RHH
80	OAK	RHH
79	BOS	LHH
74	STL	RHH
73	PIT	RHH
71	KC	LHH
59	SD	LHH

•  Eight teams (Reds, White Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Phillies, Rangers, Rockies and Blue Jays) show up for both right and left handed hitters for parks that help with home runs. Only 3 teams show up twice on the list of home run suppressing parks (Royals, Cardinals and A’s).
•  San Diego is a sinkhole for left handed home runs hitters. Don’t forget that KC is not that far behind. Last season Eric Hosmer hit 16 of his 19 home runs on the road.
•  Another interesting note is the level that St. Louis kept Albert Pujols‘ HRs suppressed. He may see a nice uptick in Anaheim.

A Pitcher’s Batted Ball Profile and Pitching Stats

You’ll often hear that a pitcher is an extreme ground ball or fly ball pitcher. Generally, the assumption is that ground ball pitchers are better than fly ball pitchers because they keep the ball in the park more often. Generally, that is the case, but extreme fly ball pitchers have their advantages. I looked at the average stats from a group of pitchers given a certain ground ball or fly ball rate to see how they compare.

I took all the pitchers since 2008 that pitched in over 120 innings in a season. Then I lumped them as close as possible into five equal groups. Here are the results:

Ground Ball Data

GB% Bracket	BABIP	WHIP	HR/FB	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	LD%	GB%	FB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
>50%	0.298	1.33	9.9%	6.4	2.9	0.79	19.1%	52.5%	28.4%	3.86	3.87	3.86
46% to 50%	0.297	1.34	10.0%	6.8	2.9	0.94	19.3%	47.2%	33.5%	4.05	4.01	3.96
42% to 46%	0.296	1.34	10.1%	6.7	3.0	1.02	19.4%	44.1%	36.5%	4.19	4.15	4.11
38% to 42%	0.290	1.31	9.7%	7.0	2.9	1.07	19.4%	40.6%	40.0%	4.14	4.16	4.16
<38%	0.278	1.28	9.4%	7.1	3.0	1.14	18.9%	36.1%	45.0%	4.04	4.26	4.33

Fly Ball Data

FB% Bracket	BABIP	WHIP	HR/FB	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	LD%	GB%	FB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
>42%	0.285	1.32	9.3%	6.9	3.0	1.15	20.1%	35.1%	44.7%	4.24	4.31	4.40
38% to 42%%	0.288	1.29	9.7%	7.3	2.9	1.06	19.6%	40.1%	40.3%	4.04	4.09	4.09
35% to 38%	0.294	1.33	9.9%	6.7	2.9	1.01	19.4%	44.0%	36.6%	4.10	4.11	4.08
32% to 35%	0.299	1.35	10.0%	6.7	3.0	0.93	19.2%	47.8%	33.0%	4.08	4.04	4.00
< 32%	0.293	1.31	9.9%	6.3	2.9	0.79	18.0%	53.7%	28.3%	3.80	3.87	3.85

•  The main advantage of the ground-ball pitchers is the low number of HR/9. Even though their HR/FB is higher, the ground-ball pitchers overcome this problem by just not allowing as many fly balls. For fantasy purposes, this value leads to an over 0.2 improvement in ERA compared to other pitchers.
•  Fly ball pitchers have the advantage that fly balls are easier to catch than ground balls for outs. With these extra outs, fly ball pitchers have a lower BABIP and therefore a lower WHIP. Also, this lower BABIP allows these pitchers’ ERA to be better then their FIP and xFIP.

When deciding between pitchers with similar K and BB numbers, I would take the pitchers in the following order (ranking is based mainly on ERA with the tie breaker going to WHIP)

1. >50% GB rate
2A. <38% GB rate
2B. Between 46% and 50% GB rate
3A. Between 38% and 42% GB rate
3B. Between 42% and 46% GB rate

First, I would always pick pitchers based on a combination of strikeouts, walks and health. After that, use the pitchers batted ball profile to decide which pitcher to pick if undecided between two.