Justin Mason’s Top 50 First Basemen for 2020
It is that time of year again! With the new year upon us, I am releasing my first set of ranks during this week and next for those doing early drafts or prep over the holidays. All ADP and position eligibility are based on NFBC Draft Champions leagues.
Justin Mason’s Top 50 First Basemen for 2020
| Rank | Player | Team | Position(s) | ADP | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Bellinger | LAD | 1B, OF | 5.59 | Second half wasn’t as good as the first, but how could it be? |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | ATL | 1B | 17.5 | Elbow is a bit scary, but early reports are good. |
| 3 | Pete Alonso | NYM | 1B | 28.23 | Probably too high in the overall ADP. |
| 4 | Anthony Rizzo | CHC | 1B | 61.27 | About as consistent as they come. |
| 5 | Paul Goldschmidt | STL | 1B | 68.64 | Name value is still keeping him in the top five. Probably shouldn’t though. |
| 6 | Matt Olson | OAK | 1B | 68.86 | Love Olson! May move him above Rizzo and Goldy. Hit 36 HRs in 541 PAs after returning from broken hamate. |
| 7 | Max Muncy | LAD | 2B, 1B, 3B | 77.86 | Repeated the 2018 breakout. No reason to think he can’t continue the success. |
| 8 | DJ LeMahieu | NYY | 1B, 3B, 2B | 62.5 | First year in the Bronx was insane. Has multi-positional eligibility. Why do I not trust him? |
| 9 | Josh Bell | PIT | 1B | 91.82 | Second half drop off was scary, but I believe in the talent. |
| 10 | Jose Abreu | CWS | 1B | 80.14 | Looks like 2018 was an anomaly. Team should be better in 2020 as well. |
| 11 | Rhys Hoskins | PHI | 1B | 118.64 | Average drop for the second straight year is concerning, but has a nice discount and a great team around him. |
| 12 | Trey Mancini | BAL | OF, 1B | 107.32 | One of the most underrated players in fantasy. Will the Orioles trade him though? |
| 13 | Yuli Gurriel | HOU | 1B, 3B | 106.09 | Without the trash cans in centerfield, how bad will the regression be? |
| 14 | Yasmani Grandal | CWS | 1B, C | 103.55 | Are you really ever going to play him at 1B? |
| 15 | Luke Voit | NYY | 1B | 196.27 | Things could change if the Yankees bring in more hitters. |
| 16 | Carlos Santana | CLE | 1B | 145.64 | Career year at 33? Regression, likely being traded makes him difficult to rank. |
| 17 | Joc Pederson | LAD | 1B, OF | 197.82 | Quietly put together a career year. I have always believed, but do the Dodgers? |
| 18 | Danny Santana | TEX | 1B, OF | 120.77 | Not completely buying the breakout yet. |
| 19 | Joey Votto | CIN | 1B | 288.86 | Is this the end for Votto? |
| 20 | Michael Chavis | BOS | 1B, 2B | 223.5 | If healthy and starting, he could hit 30. |
| 21 | Yandy Diaz | TB | 1B, 3B | 213.05 | Will he ever raise the launch angle consistently enough to make use of those pythons? |
| 22 | Renato Nunez | BAL | 1B | 263.05 | Cheap power source |
| 23 | Edwin Encarnacion | FA | 1B | 214.77 | Where does he sign? |
| 24 | Eric Hosmer | SD | 1B | 216.05 | How many more years is that deal? |
| 25 | Garrett Cooper | MIA | 1B, OF | 320.91 | Cooper is in great shape coming into 2020, but the addition of Aguilar casts doubt on his role. |
| 26 | Daniel Murphy | COL | 1B | 224.45 | I worry the injuries have taken too much of a toll. |
| 27 | Christian Walker | ARZ | 1B | 205.95 | Days are numbered with Cron and Beer in the minors. |
| 28 | Nate Lowe | TB | 1B | 239.5 | Why do the Rays hate him? |
| 29 | Rowdy Tellez | TOR | 1B | 367.32 | Love him, but I don’t think the Blue Jays do. |
| 30 | C.J. Cron | MIN | 1B | 274.73 | Underrated by most including me. |
| 31 | Miguel Cabrera | DET | 1B | 394.05 | This ranking made me sad. |
| 32 | Jesus Aguilar | MIA | 1B | 497.91 | Love the move to Miami. Probably need to move him up a bunch. |
| 33 | Brandon Belt | SF | 1B | 447.27 | Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me 23 times, I hate you Belt. |
| 34 | Evan White | SEA | 1B | 437.55 | Contract means he should be up soon. Worth stashing. |
| 35 | Jake Bauers | CLE | 1B, OF | 466.14 | His dad Jack had way more pop. |
| 36 | Jake Lamb | ARZ | 1B, 3B | 490.59 | I want to believe we will see the guy we thought he’d turn into, but at this point it is hard to believe that will ever come. |
| 37 | Travis d’Arnaud | ATL | 1B, C | 264.09 | He is a catcher. |
| 38 | Howie Kendrick | WAS | 1B, 2B | 332.5 | Playoff hero not worth rostering. |
| 39 | Marwin Gonzalez | MIN | 1B, 3B, OF | 348.27 | Underrated considering the eligibility. |
| 40 | Jeimer Candelario | DET | 1B, 3B | 518.91 | Going way too low, but I get why. |
| 41 | Ji-Man Choi | TB | 1B | 421.36 | Rays love him, but role is still uncertain. |
| 42 | Dominic Smith | NYM | OF, 1B | 364.09 | Where does he play? |
| 43 | Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | 1B | 395.59 | This should be the year we finally see him. Bat should play well in Camden. |
| 44 | Eric Thames | FA | 1B | 425.59 | What is his role going to be? |
| 45 | Seth Beer | AZ | 1B | 666.32 | Bat is MLB ready, but he is ROUGH defensively. |
| 46 | Justin Smoak | FA | 1B | 527.05 | Does he get a starting gig? |
| 47 | Ryan O’Hearn | KC | 1B | 641.91 | Whiffed on him last year. Not going to fall for it twice. |
| 48 | Daniel Vogelbach | SEA | 1B | 406.09 | Fun story, but White should be up soon and there are others that will steal time as well. |
| 49 | Albert Pujols | LAA | 1B | 462.14 | The end is near, if you are not talking about his contract. |
| 50 | Ryan Zimmerman | WAS | 1B | 594 | Should end up back in DC, which would move him up 5-6 spots at least. |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
Thanks for the list Justin. Miggy and Aguilar are both #31. Do you feel very strongly about ranking them the same or is this really a top 51 first baseman? Is there some SEO reason that makes top 40 a better search term than 50, hence the title?
Fixed
“Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me 23 times, I hate you Belt.”
[audible chuckle]
Loved this one too. Done with Belt … unless he pulls it off the 24th time.
Don’t look now, but the fences in right center are being moved in…
Aww no, I just tricked you into buying again
How much does Dom Smith move up the list if the Mets actual trade him somewhere that he can play every day?
Jake Bauer seems like a Myers type, but with a lot more discipline
Isn’t seth beer a Diamondback?
Where is Hunter Dozier?
id put dozier in the mancini thru joc tier
Everyone really thinks DJ is going to repeat his number when they nerf the ball?
Thames is a FA, not on the Brewers
Mags said that 1B belongs to Aguilar to start the year and Cooper heading to bench.
Went through the games played lists and didn’t see any super exciting omissions that qualify under formats with looser qualifications except Miguel Sano (9G/8GS).
One name I did see though that is worth tucking away to see if he gets any playing time is Kevin Cron. Dude hit 44 HR in 455 PA between MiLB and MLB and put up a 1,226 OPS in the minors with good plate discipline. Yes it’s the PCL and yes the plate discipline didn’t carry over to the majors (SSS), but his numbers were basically the 2nd best in the PCL (just a hair behind Ty France) and wayyyy ahead of those behind him. Discount those numbers for playing at elevation and they are still outstanding. While he does have some competition at 1B (Walker, Lamb, Beer (the player, not the beverage)), it’s not like that’s super imposing competition. Steamer puts them all basically in the same bucket with wOBAs in the .322-.330 range.
Three Rays between 21 and 41. Real-life franchise success. Fantasy purgatory.
Free Nate Lowe.
Apparently the Rays have a Josh Lowe in the minors as well who is knocking on the big league door. At some point this year they are likely to start 3 Lowe’s.
Will that be the Lowest point in the franchise’s history?
That low for Vogelbach as a full-time DH only makes sense in batting average leagues. In OBP, much, much, much higher.
Thank you for ranking the guys we are going to use at other positions, even the catchers. You say never but wierd stuff can happen, especially as a injuries start to hit dynasty or daily leagues.
Kendrick : Playoff hero not worth rostering seems odd. I certainly do not like that he stayed in the NL, but if it is daily moves I’d basically always have his bat in the line up on days he plays.
Completely agree. I have him in Ottoneu and getting 300-400 PAs of above-average offense at MI is well worth it.
He was also a Statcast darling last year, and seems to be benefiting from the launch angle revolution after spending his whole career as a worm-burner. Last year was his first year EVER with fewer than 1.5 GB/FB.
He ended 2019 4th (4th!) on the xwOBA leaderboard. You can argue that xSTATS are flawed, or that they’re not intended to be predictive, but when the other names in the Top 10 are Trout, Bellinger, Yelich, Cruz, Rendon, Alvarez, Betts, Soto, and Judge…yeah, it’s safe to say you’re doing something right.
Who says you can’t teach an old dog new tricks?
Howie Kendrick had a great but short year offensively
not really that short. only about 220 guys had more pa’s than he did.
Agreed 100%. People breakout at different ages. Some people randomly get better in their mid 30s. There was nothing flukey about his 2019 performance, and while a change to the AL would of been nice, for me he is an actual reach in all daily move leagues because I actually believe in what he did last year.
The Brandon Belt comment is the first highlight fantasy baseball 2020. Perfect, thank you.
Pretty nutty Christian Walker is outside the 200 and will probably lose his job posting essentially the same line as Goldschmidt both in results and statcast.
Man, Joc Pederson would be a great fit for the Angels. If only.