Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – November 27th, 2023

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: The chat is back! Hope everyone had a great thanksgiving!

Jay: Thoughts/feelings on Framber heading into 2024? He’s a top-XX SP, in your view.

Justin Mason: I have always been a framber guy. I love getting 200 innings at the top of my rotation and you know that it should come with good ratios and a lot of wins in Houston. I think he should be a top 20 pitcher and that is about where he is going.

Double Tap: Our 12 team H2H redraft draft order was just decided and I’m 12th. I’m overjoyed — feels like there’s ~20 top guys this year and then a cliff. Am I wrong to be happy??

Justin Mason: I think you are right. There is a small drop off after the top 8 but a bigger one after 13-15 IMO. Being able to get two of those guys is a great way to start your draft.

Rotten tomato: worst athletic performance by an actor in a sports movie?

Rotten tomato: 1) Tim Robbins in quarterback princess, 2) John Goodman in the Nave

Rotten tomato: babe, or 3) Tim Robbins in bull Durham

Justin Mason: I saw this question as I was wrapping up the pod with Paul and we discussed it on the show a bit. I think John Goodman in the Babe is the right answer. He was just casted in the role because of his body style. Looked completely wrong athletically.

Ludwig: Evan Carter hype — Is it justified? How big a 2024 performance are we looking at?

Justin Mason: Carter may get one the biggest boosts from the playoffs in terms of his price. I don’t know that it is warranted. I honestly think he profiles as a good compiler more than a star. Maybe he can be prime Benintendi, but I think a lot has to work in his favor for that to happen. On the plus side he has a great approach and there is pop and speed in the profile and I do think he gets opportunity. That being said, he is going around established players I prefer and huge upside guys that if I want to take a gamble, I can go there. I don’t see myself drafting him at his current price and I think that will only go up from here.

Nick: Keeper question for a 12 team points league that has 3pts per SB and -2pts per CS. Keeping Carrol (22nd round), Tucker and J-Rod in the 13th, and EDLC in the 22nd. Have to choose one of Harper (7th), Vinnie P (22nd) Buehler, B. Miller or Eury in the 25th. I can trade some off, if I can get fair value would you move an OF so I’m not keeping 3 of them?

Justin Mason: I don’t think I am moving any of those outfielders. I think I keep Eury and keep that core together.

Shoheitothejays: Hey Justin. In a 20 team dynasty keeper H2H rank these pitchers if you don’t mind. Skubal, Garrett, Manoah, Bryce Miller, Reece Olsen. Also, have Glasnow, Springs, Woodruff. Thanks in advance.

Justin Mason: Skubal, Garrett, Miller, Olson, Manoah

KCbbq: Will Euzekiel Duran be more than a PT player in 2024? He fizzled in the second half but showed great promise when playing nearly everyday in the first half. I have him for $3 in a 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H keeper league. Of course will wait till ST to see how things shake out but just wondering your view.

Justin Mason: I think he is a super utility guy at best unfortunately.

KCbbq: What are you expecting from Hunter Brown next season? Sure fell on his face the last 2 months of the season. Was pretty much a 2 pitch SP. I’ll have to decide whether or not to extend for one year for $6 in a 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H league.

Justin Mason: I like the foundation for Brown and the organization that he is in, but he definitely needs that third pitch if he is going to improve as a starter. $6 in an AL only league seems like a good price for a young guy that just threw 150 innings and is some growth away from a massive leap.

Whitt: What is your interest level in Braxton Garrett and Dean Kremer in 2024?

Justin Mason: I am a huge Braxton Garrett guy. I think he has great stuff and should have a full time rotation spot locked in. He is going way too low in the ADP and will be on a lot of my teams. Kremer is very interesting as well. Great park to pitch in and the home run rate came down in the second half. That being said, he only had four of his fourteen starts on the road in the second half, so that probably isn’t going to sustain. In leagues where i can stream him at home, I am very interested.

Kate: Do you see anything in Will Smith’s (the catcher, not the pitcher) data that indicates last year was anything other than a down year?  Most everything looks the same, but the barrel rate dropped sharply and the home runs came down accordingly.

Justin Mason: He has had a weird lowering of his launch angle the last few seasons which I think accounts for some of his power drop off. My biggest issues with Smith are that the catcher pool around him has gotten better and I think the Dodgers either sign Ohtani or bring back Martinez so his extra plate appearances at DH aren’t likely returning. I think he is fine,but not a target for me.

Kate: Does the gulf between Isaac Paredes xStats and actual stats give you any pause?  He seems to be the kind of guy who’s getting the most out of his pulled fly balls (similar to Semien and some others).  Is this kind of profile a bit more delicate (i.e. it can all come crumbling down quickly)?

Justin Mason: They definitely give me pause, but I also think it is fairly repeatable. Maybe not 31 home runs, but mid-to-high 20’s should be in the cards for him with a .240-.250 average while being multi-positional eligible. I think he should play regularly unless he completely falls off and reverts back to a platoon which can happen in Tampa. Here is the thing though. While I am not opposed to drafting Paredes again, I want to find the next paredes more. His price is fine but not one I am jumping for joy on.

Kate: How hopeful are you for a Gioito bounceback?  He can’t be this bad, right?  Was actually pretty good last year until the trade whirlwind started.

Justin Mason: I really want to see the landing spot for Giolito. I honestly don’t know what to make of him until I know what organization and park he will be in. We know he can be great if he has a good pitching coach, but he is a true wild card. I wouldn’t draft him in a Gladiator style league because he is so volatile, but in shallower formats where you can drop him, he makes a lot of sense because the upside is so great.

Kate: How do you reconcile landing spots for guys like Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Maeda in terms of their landing spots being good pitchers’ parks, but questionable pitching coaching orgs?  I would assume it’s less of a concern for a guy like Gray (who doesn’t really need fixing) and more of a concern for Lynn since he obviously needs something to be fixed?

Justin Mason: I love the landing spots for Lynn and Gray. I think the defense behind them and the parks are fantastic fits. I know Lynn was maddening for people who rostered him in 2023, but I believe in the talent and I think St. Louis will be good for him. Maeda is all about health. When healthy, he is a great pitcher. Perfect guy for a 10 or 12 team league where you can drop  him when he gets hurt.

Kate: Are you at all concerned about Oneil Cruz’s SBs (short term or long term) coming off a major leg injury?

Justin Mason: Not unless the club says they are slowing him down. I may wait to see him in spring training before I draft him. If he isn’t running there, that may be a sign he isn’t running as much.

vr: Hey Justin,

Justin Mason: Hey!!!

Kate: How much did the second half / playoffs change your outlook on Pfaadt going into 2024?

Justin Mason: It changed a ton for me. Not because of his talent level, but for his innings projection. If he had continued to struggle, I don’t know that I would have penciled him into the rotation. Now, I think he is a guy that can be penciled in for 140-150 innings

Johny5Alive: If you are stearns, what do you do? Do you sign a couple of inning eater and high risk bp guys, and just hope to flip them at the deadline? You trading Alonso? Or you gonna go and do whatever you can to get one of the two generational talents in Ohtani and Yamamoto?

Justin Mason: I think you put all your eggs in the Ohtani basket and when that doesn’t happen, tear it down. There just isn’t enough on the market to rebuild this quickly and you shouldn’t try unless you land Ohtani.

Kate: Is Luis Garcia at any risk of not having a rotation spot available when he gets back this year?  Or is this the kind of thing that will sort itself out by that point via other injuries?

Justin Mason: I could see the Astros only letting him be a reliever if/when he gets back this season. I don’t think you should be drafting him in redraft formats

vr: Hey Justin, thanks for having these chats. What do you think is a reasonable return for Freddie Freeman in a keeper league? 12 team, keep 20, 5×5 OPS instead of AVG. Want to sell high now but don’t see any decent paths towards recovering that speed. Some weakness at middle infield and SP. Oneil Cruz + 1st pick (yamamoto)?

Justin Mason: Why are you selling on Freeman? I know he is older, but he has a skill set that should age well. I would want a haul for him if I moved him. A top 30 player and a top 25 prospect.

Kate: Does the Maeda signing bump Sawyer Gipson-Long back to AAA to start the year?  If so, that’s kind of a bummer.  I think I’d rather see him get a rotation spot than than Manning or Mize at this point.

Justin Mason: I think this means SGL is starting the year in the minors. He will be up once Manning turns back into a pumpkin or one of their pitchers gets injured. In deep formats, I think you can stash him because it is a good profile.

Wiz: Snapped up Royce Lewis, Junior Caminero, Evan Carter & Wyatt Langford in a DC with auto lineups. Rank them from most to least ABs this year, in your estimation. (also in my defense I paired them with a bunch of safe *boring* guys like Santander, Arraez, etc)

Justin Mason: Carter, Caminero, Lewis, Langford

Kate: Is Stanton cooked at this point?

Justin Mason: Yes in the sense of who he once was, but he can still hit bombs  when healthy.

Masyn: Does Winn have  a tovaresque rookie year? Solid but not great? Or does he crash?

Justin Mason: I love that comp for Masyn Winn. I think he plays every day and accumulates. There is a lot to like in the profile from a real life prospective, but he isn’t a fantasy star. He is cheap so he is a deep league play.

Bobby: Do you buy the power surge we saw from Moreno in the postseason? He hit some massive shots but was only a .138 ISO in the season. Trying to decide if he’s a keeper in a league that greatly rewards slugging

Justin Mason: I think he is another guy that is overrated from his prospect pedigree and the playoffs. I don’t see him as a 20+ homer guy. More like a mid-to-low teens homer guy with a good average and some stolen bases.

Shoheitothejays: Oh I forgot I have Taj Bradley too. So Skuball, Garrett, Bradley, Miller, Olsen, Manoah?

Justin Mason: Bradley behind Miller

Dodger: dodgers have to move one of their young pitchers right? If not 2? Who goes

Justin Mason: I don’t know that they move them. Depth is key especially with Kershaw out and Urias gone. Not to mention we don’t know what Buehler will look like once he returns and they currently have Yarbrough penciled into their rotation. If anything, they need to add pitching.

Pedro: Any cause for concern with Luis Castillo?  Barrel rate has doubled to 9.4%,  barrel rate has increased from 36.7% to 41.8%, and EV from 87 to 90 in last two years.  Thanks in advance

Justin Mason: I have zero concern with Castillo. He is a top 5-10 starter for me.

MK: Last keeper slot in a 12t H2H OBP league – CJ Abrams or Bobby Miller?  Have Cole, Riley, Carroll as others (along with Grayson and Francisco Alvarez in my minors (weird format).  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Miller but only because it is an OBP league and Abrams doesn’t help there.

Ryan: Cole Ragans a top 25 SP for you next year?

Justin Mason: Not quite, but close

Chazz Jissom: MLB season win totals are out

Justin Mason: I’ll take the under

Ezra: Do any of Jazz, Nootbaar, or R Greene end up as a true impact player?

Justin Mason: If Jazz can stay healthy he is. I don’t know if I buy that. Nootbaar needs full time playing time so if the Cards trade someone, I am in for sure. Greene is a fine player but not a difference maker.

Kate: So your boy Heaney finally stays healthy this year and then he completely loses his breaking ball.  What’s your outlook for him going into 2024?  I know you’re not quitting him.

Justin Mason: I quit him last year and I don’t think I am jumping back in.

Nick: Piggybacking on my last question, how far apart are Eury and Bobby Miller for you?

Justin Mason: They are super close to each other. I honestly will be flipping them back and forth for sure.

Chazz Jissom: Season win totals are out. People are jumping on the Cardinals to win division and go over 86 wins. I don’t see it. What say you?

Justin Mason: I think that could happen but I want to see if the rest of the division make moves before that. all those teams are on the cusp of greatness or disaster depending on what they do.

Keith: Who wins this deal in a deep Dynasty league? Yordan Alvarez for Josh Jung and #3 pick in FYPD?

Justin Mason: Yordan

Paul: Chances of Pete Alonso signing an extension?

Justin Mason: 25%

Kate: Waldichuk is going REALLY late in drafts right now, but I’m seeing some interesting building blocks here with two good secondaries, a fastball that was hyped coming up, an org that doesn’t really have any reason to not give him a bunch of chances, and a really good home park (for this year at least).  Is this just a matter of him developing the command a bit?

Justin Mason: I think he could be interesting in really deep leagues, but health and the organization are a problem. I may win more games than the A’s this year.

KCbbq: I have Jhoan Duran $16 in a 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H keeper league. Also have Fairbanks at $6. Draft day inflation runs around 30%. Top SPs always in demand. Would you trade Duran for $20 Framber or $20 Pablo Lopez?

Justin Mason: Depends on what the closer pool at the draft looks like it might be. On the surface, I would trade him for Pablo, but if there aren’t going to be any other closers in the auction, then I may just stick with Duran.

Kate: Has there been any talk of Jazz moving back to the infield?  Thought I heard some whispers about this during the season with the idea that it could help keep him healthy.

Justin Mason: They should but I haven’t seen anything.

Mike: 30 team dynasty league… Any cheaper SP targets in this years FA class that could have an impact like Eflin last year?

Justin Mason: Guys going outside the top 400 picks that I like so far: Paxton, Patrick Sandoval, Max Meyer, Brady Singer, Keaton Winn. I am sure I will have more for you once I have my pitching projections done in about a month or so.

KCbbq: Have to decide whether or not to extend Gausman for $32 in my 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H league. Top end SPs always in demand but is $32 too much? Cole, Castillo and Logan Gilbert will be in the draft. I have Ryan at $22 and may throw him back into the draft.

Justin Mason: I am not a fan of extending pitchers in these formats. I prefer to save my money and build a stronger team for now.

Pete: Can you rank these 5: Cole Ragans, Bryce Miller, Nick Lodolo, Reid Detmers and Hunter Brown?

Justin Mason: Ragans, Miller, Lodolo, Brown, Detmers

Luke: Crazy prediction: Angels sign Ohtani and Yamamoto

Justin Mason: LOL

Kyle: What’s the last text you sent Paul say?

Justin Mason: 368

Luke: Could you see Brandon Marsh eventually being a 20-20 player?

Justin Mason: I could but I don’t know if the power will be there with his approach.

Todd: Hey Justin, we keep 3 SPs in our league. Would you feel uneasy keeping E Perez, Ragans, Buehler to start your staff out with?

Justin Mason: I would feel ok about that, but I am uneasy about Buehler in his first season back from TJ

Guest: Seth Lugo – how do we value him? I have him as possible keeper in my dynasty (between him and India for my last spot).

Justin Mason: I like Lugo a lot but I need to see where he ends up in Free Agency. I lean india there.

Bandit: Steamer has a pretty spicy projection for Zack Gelof. Think that fades as we head into Spring or can he be a real impact guy?

Justin Mason: I think he definitely can be impactful because he plays in oakland which means he has no competition for an every day role. The rate stats could be ugly, but the rest should be good.

Bandit: Think Trevor Story has one more big season left in the tank or are you basically moving on at this point?

Justin Mason: I think there is one in there. it is a gamble though.

Justin Mason: Time is about up, but I am going to rapid fire the remaining questions.

DJ Jazzy Jeff: I thought the argument for moving Chisholm to the OF last year was to keep him healthier…

Justin Mason: That was the argument, but did it work??

Pat G: 16 team Dynasty, can you rank the likelihood of a bounce back from the following SP: Rodon, Scherzer, Darvish, and Lynn. Thanks

Justin Mason: Scherzer, Rodon, Darvish, Lynn

Kyle: If deGrom had the same ERA/WHIP stats in the last few years but hadn’t missed a start, would he be drafted ahead of Acuna?

Justin Mason: Yes

Nico: Hi Justin what are your predictions for the Mets in 2024? Do you think they target big free agents or stick with the younger guys and hope the pitching stands their ground? (I think they still get Yamamoto no matter what option they go with)

Justin Mason: I think they are mediocre because they can’t commit to rebuilding or reloading.

Kate: Is Jarren Duran at any risk of falling into a platoon?  Or is he an everyday guy?

Justin Mason: I think he is an everyday guy in Boston and is a pretty interesting guy at his price with a lot of upside.

Justin Mason: Thank you all for chatting with me today! please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!