Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – November 21st, 2022

November 21, 2022

First chat back in years! Join me every Monday! Here is today’s transcript:

9:16	Justin Mason: Sorry about the late start, but it’s been a while since I did one of these and I had some difficulty setting it up. Will start soon so get your questions in!

9:26	Jb: How high will your guy Cedric bounce back ?

9:27	Justin Mason: Bounceback? I think what we saw in 2022 is who he is. A double digit power guy that steals 25+ bases with a decent average. As the Orioles get better, so will his counting numbers. I still think he gets underrated

9:27	Gregg: Do you plan to do more or fewer leagues in 2023 that you did in 2022? Seems like 16 is a lot to manage.

9:28	Justin Mason: I will probably play in more leagues this year, but will do more shallow espn and yahoo leagues as that is what more of the readers/listeners are playing.

9:28	Tom S.: What do you think about Shandler’s notion that there are too many variables to project rankings so we should just give that up an assess skills?

9:29	Justin Mason: I think you should definitely care more about skills, but I don’t think that projecting ranks is wrong a waste of time.

9:29	Erick: Do you plan to participate in the 2023 Main Event?

9:30	Justin Mason: I do, but I will probably only do one as opposed to multiple like I have done in recent years and I likely will do it online again. Even though I enjoyed the live ones, they have a tougher field IMO.

9:30	Paul: Where is Bellinger going to sign?

9:31	Justin Mason: Difficult to figure out but I think he will have a plethora of options considering his upside and defense. What is a team with money that needs a CF? Philadelphia. So, he can kill my Marsh shares.

9:32	Kyle: Our long wait has finally ended! I think everyone wants to know the 2023 version of Mullins. Last year’s pick by you of Cole Tucker went as poorly has it could have so time to redeem yourself.

9:33	Justin Mason: I am still working my way through my projections but as I said last year, there won’t be another Cedric Mullins for me. He was a once in a lifetime call. That being said, Lars Nootbar, Brandon Marsh, Zach McKinstry, and TJ Freidl are guys I have been looking at in that vein.

9:34	Gregg: When will we be getting livestreams of you in your freezing cold garage draftin’ and rippin’ cigs? That’s sort of my signal that draft season has started.

9:36	Justin Mason: I hope by the time I have started doing my live drafts, I will have quit smoking again, but those usually start in February, but I am hoping to start doing more YouTube stuff soon as well. Definitely make sure you are following me at

9:36	Justin Mason: *

9:37	Justin Mason: Well the chat wont allow me to give my youtube, but it justinmasonfwfb like my twitter lol

9:37	Kyle: Do you think you become biased towards players you end up taking in Nov/Dec drafts?

9:38

Justin Mason: I really try to diversify as much as I can so not really. In early drafts, I am trying to learn the pool and take advantage of weak points in the ADP. That being said, there are guys that end up on a lot of my teams (i.e. Cedric Mullins in 2021 which was good, Nelson Cruz in 2022 which was bad.)

9:39	Dave: Christian Javier is a top [fill in the blank] fantasy starting pitcher in 2023.

9:39	Justin Mason: 40

9:39	Jj: Luis Patino and J Kelenic ??? Will they ever be what we thought ?

9:40	Justin Mason: I think they both can be. Patino needs health and a real starting role. Kelenic needs to get out of his own head. I am not out on either to be honest, but I don’t know how much I’ll draft either this season. Probably more Kelenic since I will likely fade Patino as an injury risk.

9:40	Tim Scandling: How often should we expect your chats during the regular season? Weekly like Paul? His chats are great FYI if you’re looking for inspiration.

9:40	Justin Mason: Every Monday!

9:41	Dewey: Where does elvis andrus sign?

9:42	Justin Mason: Any place that needs a shortstop and doesn’t want to spend a ton of $$$. Angels? Twins if they don’t get Correa back?

9:42	Damian: Is witt Jr a first rounder or a mirage

9:42	Justin Mason: Absolutely. You don’t fake 20/30

9:43	Randy: Wondering if J. Mateo Steamer/DC are high on his SB and home runs in your opinion

9:43	Justin Mason: Definitely on the home runs

9:44	VIshma: Last year was my first time playing fantasy baseball and I finished in last in my league – any tips that you could provide to help me evaluate players better. I think that’s my biggest weakness.

9:45	Justin Mason: Welcome to the best game ever! I think new players struggle with playing time and risk aversion. Volume is key to winning competitive leagues. Too often we combine risks especially early and that can be disasterous.

9:45	Kyle: re: Mullins. You should totally do an article on Fangraphs with your evaluation of who could be this year’s Mullins. Would be fascinating to read your thought process.

9:45	Justin Mason: I will definitely be doing that this year in Feb/March

9:45	Randy: What do you usually do when players have or had wrist injuries in the past year or two>

9:46	Justin Mason: I used to be a guy that took on injury risk. I am now the complete opposite. If a guy has reoccurring injuries, I am out

9:47	Jeremy: How much player profiling/analyzing do you do after the season ends before you start drafting? Or do you kind of just have a mental profile and roll with those?

9:49	Justin Mason: I am starting my prep for the season in August/September of the previous season. I start a lot earlier than most because I want to have my ranks done before the ADP and other ranks come out and then I spend all draft season (which starts for me in October) tweaking things a lot.

9:49	Art: I just saw Tyler Anderson go in the 30th round of a draft (I was not in it). Thoughts??

9:50	Justin Mason: Man, I don’t know what to think of him this year. That feels like a nice value compared to what he did in 2022, but I still struggle pulling the trigger on him now that he is not a Dodger.

9:50	Jeremy: If you could do a Sleeper and the Bust episode with anyone (dead or alive), who would you choose?

9:51	Justin Mason: A regret I have is that I never had Lawr Michaels on the pod before he passed.

9:51	paul: can Christian Arroyo get regular Abs ?

9:51	Justin Mason: Probably not.

9:51	Skip: Will your Better half do Chats ? Sources say she’s beat you !

9:52	Justin Mason: She does her chatting on twitter. Definitely follow her there if you like people who troll me @MrsDSalinger

9:52	Jake Mr Snake: Fantasy baseball is a marathon. How often during the season do you just like to step away for a break? Once or twice for a few days at a time or do you power through?

9:53	Justin Mason: I power through until the All Star Break and then take those days completely off except for maybe a pod or two. Then I take a week or two off in October before getting back into draft prep. Fantasy Baseball is a year long thing for me.

9:53	Howards: Giants and Orioles meet in the 2023 World Series and it goes to a Game 7 – who are you rooting for?

9:53	Justin Mason: Giants of course but man, that’s the dream!

9:54	Simione: I miss your face.

9:54	Justin Mason: I miss your face! Lets get on a pod together soon!

9:54	Howards: I think Hunter Greene will either be awesome or terrible next year – what’s your read on him?

9:55	Justin Mason: I think that is a pretty good read on him TBH. Can he harness his stuff like he did late in the year, especially in that park? Man, I don’t know that I like that bet considering the price.

9:55	Howards: Mondesi – 50.5 games played in 2023 – over or under?

9:56	Justin Mason: I am going to take the over, but I am ready to be hurt again. Though I haven’t pulled the trigger yet in a league.

9:56	Guest: How many at bats next year for Alek Thomas?

9:57	Justin Mason: 450 is where I am leaning. I actually hope they trade him considering their depth.

9:57	Damian: Am I wrong to put too much hope in Tyler mahle with a full season as aTwin?

9:57	Justin Mason: I think a lot depends on his health. If he is healthy, I like him a ton in Minnesota.

9:58	Randy: MJ Melendez struggled mightily against the shift, do the new run changes bring his average closer to .245?

9:58	Justin Mason: I think I would project him between .235-.245 so that sounds about right.

9:58	Jenny: What’s one thing at FPAZ you learned that you’ll be keeping in mind this upcoming season?

9:59	Justin Mason: I talked about this on pod yesterday with Kevin Hasting, but he pointed out to me at FPAZ the Rockies schedule is perfectly set up for NFBC hitters this season.