Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – May 8th, 2023

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Buy High, Sell Low: With pitching being a injury wasteland, and upping premium on arms. What kind of package would you be looking for back on pop up bats this year like Kelenic, Mateo, outman, etc.

Justin Mason: I still want top 100 players back, so if I am looking for an arm, I want a top 30 SP of in that neighborhood.

Jesse: Starling Marte was dropped in my 12 teamer with a deep bench, what percentage should I go to?

Justin Mason: 10-15%

Greg: What’s your read on Bryce Miller ROS? I have no idea how to value him.

Justin Mason: I like Miller, but I also worry that there might be homer problems at some point. However, he is doing a good job at keeping men off base and as long he does that, any homers will be less hurtful because they won’t be 2 or 3 run shots. With the landscape of starting pitching, I am grabbing him up where I can.

Broken Bat: is Ozuna sneaking back in ? Exit velocity, low strikeouts, power. What you say?

Justin Mason: I am definitely watching this and stashing him in deeper leagues. He has been making better swing decisions, especially outside of the zone. He is pulling the ball a ton and hitting for a bit more power. Might be just a hot streak, but I am intrigued

Squeeze Play: In saves only, do I “want” Kimbrel, Z. Jackson or Ian Hamilton? Thanks again, Justin.

Justin Mason: Kimbrel

James: 5×5 H2H, traded Bieber for B.Reynolds. In a vacuum did I get enough? It’s a keeper league and can’t keep Bieber after this year anyways (already kept for 3y) and much more worried about the 90mph FB and lack of Ks than in prior years, thanks!

Justin Mason: I love that deal. I am worried about the lack of K’s for Bieber and just wrote him up for fantasy pros as a sell high

fredbird: please rank these four in a 10-tm 5×5 OBP lg? ober, varland, josiah gray, gore

Justin Mason: Gray, Gore, Ober, Varland

Guest: Would you be looking to drop Taj Bradley after his two minor league blowups?

Justin Mason: If you were stashing him prior to them, I would hold. I am not worried about two bad AAA outings.

Love Is A Battenfield: Would you drop Ober (next start v Padres) for Michael King? 12T 5×5 redraft. Other relievers are Iglesias, Chafin, Puk. Other starters are Ohtani, Bieber, Cortes, Rasmussen, Montgomery, Bibee.

Justin Mason: Yes

Paul Sporer: Would you start Lourdes Gurriel over Taylor Ward this week in a points league?

Justin Mason: I would not

Chucky: is it too cute to consider Kiriloff v 5 RHP this week over the likes of Mountcastle and his 5 RHP (600 ops)?

Justin Mason: It is too cute. Go with Mountcastle.

Jim: Who do you like for saves ROS: Fulmer, Moore, Alzolay, Graterol, R. Johnson, R. Lopez?

Justin Mason: Graterol, but I think these are all mediocre options.

Jim: Is Reynaldo Lopez still the/a closer in Chicago? If not, does he regain and keep it at some point?

Justin Mason: He is not and does not. Hendriks is on his way.

Jim: Is Hunter Harvey the guy you want ROS in the Nat’s ‘pen?

Justin Mason: I guess, but I don’t know that you want any of them

Phil: 12 team H2H keeper. Need to make room for Judge.  Do I drop Josh Lowe, Mason Miller,  or Mackenzie Gore? Leaning to Miller because of innings limit, the team,  and he is likely not going to be kept over others.  Thanks

Justin Mason: I would try and trade one if possible. I lean Gore because Miller has been so good.

smirkingbird: best MI option on the wire (10 team league): e valdez, maikel garcia, zach neto, tovar, brendan donovan

Justin Mason: Garcia

Paul Sporer: Eovaldi or Lance Lynn ROS?

Justin Mason: Lynn

wally: Holding onto Casas in a 10-team OBP league with big lineups (MI, CI, IF, 5 OF) — worth sticking with him or drop for any of Pratto, Kirilloff, Pederson, Grichuk, Maikel Garcia or Emmanuel Valdez?

Justin Mason: I am fine dropping him for Pederson, but I can understand holding also

Winker, Taylor, Soler, Spy: Rank these guys in a redraft 5×5: Bibee, Logan T. Allen, Ober

Justin Mason: That is the order

Philip: have any preference in lemahieu vs vargas ROS in h2h ops league? vargas has shown some promise recently and with how bad the yanks have been, DJ feels like at best an empty batting average

Justin Mason: I lean Vargas here. I love the talent

Love Is A Battenfield: Hard for me to drop Bae with the elite steals, but Suwinski and Senzel were both just dropped to the wire. Drop Bae for either/both? 12T 5×5 redraft. Only other major steals source is Mateo, I get some extras from Varsho, Semien, Ohtani, etc.

Justin Mason: I am holding Bae

Colton: Have a free IL pick up in my league for Eloy, would you go Rooker, Mateo or Verdugo in his place? It’s ESPN points.

Justin Mason: Verdugo

Frank: McMahon is on my bench in 12 team mixed 5×5 with OPS instead of BA but I’m thinking about dropping him. I’d originally planned on possibly using him some when he’s at Coors but his K% has been ridiculous so far and I feel like I could make better use of the roster spot. What do you think?

Justin Mason: I don’t mind dropping him if you see a better option. I would only stream him in Coors if you hold

Jack Dawson: 12 team mixed…drop Wisdom for E Duran or Rendon? Am I just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic!? I drafted Walker & am wondering if I’ll just be streaming 3B all year.

Justin Mason: Duran

Jokeland AAAA’s: What will have been the most iconic 2023 A’s moment? a.) losing a broadcast booth to possums; b.) Glen Kuiper’s… museum visit; c.) their team setting a new loss record; d.) moving to Vegas; e.) the boycott; or f.) the reverse boycott

Justin Mason: Got to be Moving to Vegas

Winker, Taylor, Soler, Spy: Rank these guys in a 5×5 redraft: Chafin, Puk, M. King, Mark Leiter Jr.

Justin Mason: Puk, King, Chafin, Leiter

Philip: do you see lodolo as a decent buy low candidate? no way this hr/9 keeps up. potentially a mid 3s era guy ROS?

Justin Mason: Yeah, he has a 3.44 SIERRA. I don’t know that he does that all year because Cincy is still a bandbox, but he should be better than this.

Pinecone: What on earth do we do with Brandon Lowe and Amed Rosario. Are they cuts in a 15 teamer?

Justin Mason: I wonder if Rosario is hurt. All the skills are have regressed. I am not dropping either yet, but I am benching for now.

JW: Could you rank the following SPs as a bench streamer in a 12 tm, standard 5×5:  JP France, S.Lugo, Mikolas, B.Ober, Soroka, Ranger Suarez, L.Varland, Wesneski.  League limits the number of moves you can make per season and I’m notorious for burning through mine by Aug. So considerations for ROS. Thank you in advance for all the advice

Justin Mason: Wesneski, Suarez, Mikolas, France, Ober, Soroka, Varland

Guerer-OW: Best Vlad replacement: Vargas, LaMont Jr., Jose Miranda

Justin Mason: Wade

Joe Shlabotnik: Still keeping the faith with Tyler Stephenson? I’ve got a waiver wire with E Diaz, G Moreno, A Kirk and Haase. Make a move or stand down?

Justin Mason: I could switch out for Kirk

Philip: you feel okay with burnes ROS? his K rate is down but i cant seem to find any reason why

Justin Mason: I am pretty worried. I think he is hurt and pitching through it.

K2: What do you think about Ezequiel Tovar’s recent uptick? Just on a hot streak? Or has he finally gotten through his MLB adjustment phase? What do you think going forward?

Justin Mason: He is hot right now, but not showing great skills either. Swinging outside the zone too much and not making enough contact in the zone. I don’t think he keeps it up tbh

Kate: Does Ezequiel Duran have an everyday (or almost everyday) role once Seager comes back?

Justin Mason: It will be a super utility role until someone else gets hurt. I think they will find spots for him.

Pedro: Hi Justin.  I have to sit one of Heaney vs Mariners, Varland vs. Padres, or Anderson vs. Indians  in an AL only 5×5.  Thoughts?  I am thinking of sitting Anderson and am intrigued with Varland (even though he faces the Padres) as his underlying metrics are good and it’s a home start.  Thanks in advance

Justin Mason: Sit Anderson

B’ryce Hammer: Any idea when an updated SP ranking might come out?

Justin Mason: I believe Paul is working on his as we speak

McCullers: Yes/No:  bless my plan to pursue him in my AL only league.

Justin Mason: No

Pinecone: In a 15 team dynasty, we have excellent starting pitching but could use relief help and our bats are just atrocious. Is moving our Sonny Gray/Nolan Gorman for Matt Olson/Alexis Diaz/JD Martinez a decent deal?

Justin Mason: I don’t think it is bad, but I am not a fan of Olson’s underlying numbers. If I am trying to capitalize on Gray right now, I want a bat that isn’t swinging and missing so much in the zone.

Penny: If you needed some hitting help, would you be looking to move Sonny Gray or Corbin Burnes?

Justin Mason: Burnes

Kate: How much of what Jarren Duran is doing is real?  Still striking out a fair amount, but the plate discipline numbers are actually quite good.  Double digit barrel rate, almost 50% HH rate.  Is he just a really good platoon bat?

Justin Mason: It is kind of crazy the turn around for Duran. He is making elite zone contact and hitting the ball hard. Definitely is getting lucky in the BABIP department, but I think he could hit like .270 rest of the way with power and speed. If someone is selling high, I don’t mind buying.

Nick: With Japan winning the WBC, and Masataka Yoshida adapting quickly to MLB pitching, do you foresee more Japanese players signing to MLB teams in the next 5-10 years? And do you think the price for NPB players will rise?

Justin Mason: I don’t think a ton changes in terms of that because Japanese ball clubs get these long term contracts that lock their players up over there.

Aaron: Hi Justin, have a bit of a roster crunch, and have to drop one, how would you rank the following? Lodolo, detmers senga? Thanks

Justin Mason: Senga

Justin Mason: as the drop

Kate: What do you make of Joey Wiemer?  He’s struggling a bit, but in the complete opposite way I thought he would.

Justin Mason: Kind of who he is. There is pop and speed there, but the contact issues are preventing him from unlocking a lot of the power. Also weirdly hitting a lot on the ground.

Ben: Matt Chapman has been ridiculous so far. Would you be looking to hold or trade? If you were to trade, what would you be looking to get back?

Justin Mason: I think I would want a top 50 player if I moved him. I probably would just hold until I saw a skill change, but right now, I love what I see.

B’ryce Hammer: If I have Wander Boy, T. Turner, and Bryce Harper competing for two slots in my lineup, should I try and shop Turner? Or just enjoy my really high end streaming game?

Justin Mason: Depends on what you could get to be honest. Might want to hold if you can’t get a king’s ransom because one of them is bound to get hurt at some point.

KCbbq: Jon Gray’s starts have been less than good. More walks than Ks and barely any of the latter lately. Hiding an injury? Any concerns?

Justin Mason: I definitely think he is injured.

Justin Mason: Talked about it with Paul on the Friday episode of the pod.

Nickles: Is Gunnar Henderson at a great keeper price for Logan Webb who is not keepable a fair deal?

Justin Mason: I think it is fair.

Chucky: Are you two starting Nola (@Col, v Tor) and/or Varland (v ChC/ SD) over any single start Burnes v KC, Bieber v Det, Bryce M @ Det, Eduardo @ Cle and Urias v SD?

Justin Mason: That is tough because I am almost always in the start your studs camp. I think I might sit both though with your options.

Roger That: Is Jose Abreu droppable in a 16 teamer?

Justin Mason: Yes. I don’t know that I could, but I think it is in the conversation at this point.

KCbbq: Aaron Judge’s high K-rate is a bit concerning. Would you try to trade him now? What should one expect to get back in a 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H keeper league?

Justin Mason: I would if I got close to draft day value.

Philip: george springer is still good at baseball, right? this start has been BRUTAL

Justin Mason: Just wrote him up as a buy low for my fantasy pros article. He will be fine.

Justin Mason: Honestly, I think he could have a massive rest of the season. On top of the skills being fine, he is running at a pace we have never seen from him.

Benji Gil: Dynasty OBP league with no pitcher wins- crazy to trade Torkelson for a young controllable SP (Pfaadt, Allen, Bibee, etc.)?

Justin Mason: I don’t think it crazy. I traded him in a dynasty league for Nathaniel Lowe prior to the season. If I could get Bibee for him, I am ok with doing that.

Gallo’s Poll: Seems like Gallo has turned back into a pumpkin. .139 in the last 2 weeks…ugh. Droppable in 12 teamers??

Justin Mason: Yup

JAWS: I have never owned Schwarber before and this year he is on two of my teams, both H2H. Is it always like this?

Justin Mason: Yes, he goes through huge ups and downs. He will be fine.

Guesto: Is Soroka a worthy IL stash?

Justin Mason: Probably not

Dynasty trade: Bryce miller and tiedemann for Jackson chuorio. Which side we on?

Justin Mason: Chourio

Guest: For dynasty leagues approximately where would you have Bibee and Bryce Miller ranked?

Justin Mason: Bibee would be in my top 30-40 SPs. Miller probably 60-70

Philip: if you’re in need of avg in a h2h ops league, would you still scoop adames over lemahieu?

Justin Mason: Yes

Darren: Do you James Paxton will be useful the rest of the way? (16 team league and my pitching im has been destroyed by injury)

Justin Mason: I think he will be useful in stretches, but at this point, can he stay healthy?

RGM: 12 team h2h…my SP is very underwhelming but I did pick up Mason Miller.  Is he a hold for the long haul in this format or a streamer?  My team really needs SP with good W potential.  A spec closer is more valuable this week and next with Mason facing Texas, but trying to understand the ROS ceiling with this fireballer.

Justin Mason: He is a hold guy until they shut him down because of innings.

Kate: Do the Rockies have any plans to move Bard back into the closer role eventually?

Justin Mason: I think they will

Penny: You benching Lowe and Rosario for folks like Brenton Doyle and Luis Garcia?

Justin Mason: I would bench Rosario for Garcia but not Lowe

James: If and when Liberatore is called up, are you optimistic about him being a good contributor?

Justin Mason: Yes, he has made a lot of gains in the minors. I am very intrigued.

Kingslayer: Jose Abreu droppable in 12-team H2H Cats?

Justin Mason: Yes

seth: Vargas or Outman, which would you rather have ROS? for next season?

Justin Mason: Outman

Philip: baty is hitting the hell out of the ball and keeping his Ks “down”. do you see his fantasy output following suit where he would be a must roster in 10 teamers in the near future?

Justin Mason: absolutely

Bill James, Pet Detective: Is there any hope for Abreu? I’m struggling to hold in my 10 team roto league, but I know as soon as I drop him he’d get claimed and start raking on someone else’s team

Justin Mason: drop

Kate: What do you make of Scherzer’s slow start?  Think he turns it around?

Justin Mason: I think he will be fine ultimately.

Justin Mason: Ok, I have a ton of questions to try and get through, so SPEED ROUND!

>this guy<: Javy Baez is only striking out 16% of the time, and also his avg ev is down. Is he hurt or doing something different? Did he just give up on swinging hard bc Detroit’s park is too damn big?

Justin Mason: That K rate is fraudulent and will go right back up. almost a 14% swinging strike rate

Philip: kind of weird tatis isnt running. think that’s an organizational mandate to keep him on the field?

Justin Mason: Definitely could be.

KCbbq: Are we past the time where Kelenic qualifies as “breaking out”? He’s at $19 in a 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H keeper league. Wondering what kind of offer I’d need to put together for him.

Justin Mason: I just traded a top 50 basketball player for him in a dynasty 3-sport league. I think he is a potential stud so I am willing to move a top 50-100 talent for him.

Damian: E Duran M Garcia or tovar , which one do I drop?

Justin Mason: Tovar

Devin: Is Bryce Elder actually decent?

Justin Mason: Decent? Yes. Great? No

Rendon: Has Rendon’s value bounced back enough to sell his name again?

Justin Mason: Maybe, I would take what I could get

Oddball Herrera: Is Pfaadt for a two start week James Bond “I like to live dangerously” or Austin Powers “I like to live dangerously”?

Justin Mason: If you cant use him this week, you never will be able to.

Arenado: Slump or injury in WBC?

Justin Mason: Slump

Guest: Should we start valuing Esteury Ruiz as the new Adalberto Mondesi for fantasy?

Justin Mason: Not quite yet, but close

Captain Awesome: Eddie Rosario (2 games v BOS) or Wilmer Flores (4 games, but how many will he play?) this week M-Th in NFBC draft champ for UT spot?????

Justin Mason: Flores

Philip: bellingers Ks have been on the up the past few weeks. at what point do you sell high? or do you see him maintaining usefulness in shallow leagues outside of SB

Justin Mason: I think he might be a sell high right now.

Kate: Was it stupid for the D-Backs to send Drey Jameson back down to AAA?  I take it they sent him down to get stretched out and work on a couple of things, but that pitching environment (Reno / PCL) is a real mind-Fer.  Is there a way they could have done this in the majors to avoid having to expose him to that again?

Justin Mason: I don’t think it was stupid. He wasn’t pitching well enough and they want to win.n

Ryne Sandberg’s Ghost: I’m in an all-MLB league with pretty traditional stats and 2 2B slots.  My current second basemen, Ryan McMahon and Andres Gimenez, are–to put it politely–underachieving.  The best guys on the waiver wire are Adam Frazier, Taylor Walls, Luis Garcia, Josh Rojas, and Wilmer Flores (and guys of that ilk).  Do I just ride this one out and hope for a return to the mean?  Or make a shift now?

Justin Mason: I don’t mind dropping McMahon for Rojas

Kate: What do you make of JP Sears‘ splits?  He’s mostly fastball / slider, but is really struggling against lefties.

Justin Mason: I really like the base skills, but there will be hiccups and the A’s are really bad so 0 support.

Guest: Thoughts on Gimenez? Been a rough start, what kind of return could you ask for him? Top 100 player? 125?150?

Justin Mason: Try 150 and see what happens.

Guest: Good afternoon Mr Mason!!! Need 2, Points league with 6 points for Win and QS and -6 for loss, start H Brown or Buber or Javier or Valdez?

Justin Mason: Valdez and Brown

Tomas: do you anticipate Gunnar Henderson turning it around?

Justin Mason: Not completely. I was concerned with the platoon issues coming in and now he is struggling versus righties too.

Kate: How many games before you start getting concerned about underlying plate discipline metrics like contact rate?  Jazz Chisholm for example running a 62% contact rate so far.

Justin Mason: This is the problem with high risk/high reward guys. Got to brave through the bad times. He will get hot at some point.

Your mom: Justin please help! I can’t decide between starting Gerrit Cole or Jose Suarez this week!

Justin Mason: 2 points awarded.

Pfaady Two: You starting Pfaadt in either start this week?  for a QS points league

Justin Mason: Yes, but I am scared.

Guest: Jon Berti or Javy Báez?

Justin Mason: Baez, but gross choices

Kyle: Is Patrick Sandoval a cut for Logan Allen or Matt Strahm?

Justin Mason: for Allen, yes

Dust 11: Perdomo or Maikel Garcia in OBP? Perdomo feels like a mirage, the batted ball data is pretty bad but he at least gets a boost in OBP and points formats.

Justin Mason: Garcia

Sell-bee: Bibee’s plate discipline is carried by his called-strike% and when the “cheat sheet” is out on him, I think he doesn’t have the swing and miss yet to stay above water. Should I be being on Lynn or Sale with Bibee?

Justin Mason: I am not pushing him over sale or lynn yet, but it is close

Peter: Cut two but assume that you wouldn’t be able to get them back cause another team would claim them: Abreu, Drury, Wisdom, Bell. Who could you live without ROS? (roto)

Justin Mason: Wisdom and Abreu

VR: Talk me out of picking up Reynaldo López. Sub 4 xFIP and SIERA! Pumping 100! Likely still the closer! Maybe the bad results were due to the biceps injury he seems to have overcome.

Justin Mason: STOP!

Corbin Burnes: What happened to my gaudy strikeout numbers?

Justin Mason: I think he might be hurt

A.: Can you rank winchowski, Strahm, and Honeywell as sp options who might get holds and saves?

Justin Mason: I think that is the order

Oh Lourdes: Is he legit? His season slash is buoyed by his outright dominant past week. Have to think he’ll be playing every day for the next few weeks

Justin Mason: The skills are really nice. Making great zone contact. I might be interested in buying but the upside is a bit capped.

Tim: In a shallow, H2H category, with 5+H,BB,K, who do you like best for the week to stream:  Ketel Marte, Wade Jr, Andrew Vaughn?

Justin Mason: Wade

Justin Mash-son: 10 team roto. Only need two roster spots max for 2B and utility out of the group so how would you view the outlooks (play, sit, move on) on these LH power MI bats: Muncy, Lowe, Gorman

Justin Mason: Play Muncy, Sit Gorman, cut Lowe.

MullinsLover6969: Choose 1:

Justin Mason: two points for the handle!

MullinsLover6969: Starting Jose Suarez this week or your mother-in-law

Justin Mason: two points!

A.: Reis Detmers and Nick Lodolo were dropped in my 12 team mixed last week. I’m about to have an open roster spot with Victor Robles going on the IL. Is either worth a pickup?

Justin Mason: Grab lodolo

Wyte Sox: Expectations for Liam Hendriks once he’s back? Worst team situation than he’s had since signing there. Is he a top 10 closer in the second half?

Justin Mason: I think he is

ziggysassoon: is rooker the real deal?

Justin Mason: Man, it is getting harder and harder not to believe, but I still am skeptical

Captain Awesome: re: Amed Rosario … would you bench him for Gunnar H??

Justin Mason: sure

Phil: Is Scherzer a good buy low target,  or is he toast for this season?

Justin Mason: buy low

Wonka: Would you start Bryce Miller (vs Detroit) or Chris Sale (vs STL) this week?

Justin Mason: Miller

Tomas: Sandy Alcantara back in the swing of things based on yesterday’s performance?

Justin Mason: Yes

Sean: Trade away baez for e duran? Lineup is a huge upgrade but is it possible that baez might be “fixed” (whatever that means at this stage) and duran is just a mirage?

Justin Mason: yes

jimmyv: luis garcia (nationals) breaking out?

Justin Mason: I think he is. Still  limited upside, but I am lovingit

Justin Mason Miller: No question, just had fun making that Before and After name. 🙂

Justin Mason: two points awarded!

Chris: You buying rendons recent hot streak?

Justin Mason: No

diadem: Has Oviedo’s carriage turned into a pumpkin?

Justin Mason: Underlying numbers are fine. Buy low

RMP: Michael Brantley coming off IL this week – worth a roster spot in 12-team, 7×7 (OBP/SLG)?

Justin Mason: Probably not

Chris: Are you buying Riley Greene in a redraft league?

Justin Mason: No, I still think he is underwhelming at best.

Guardians of the Alzolay: Suwinksi or Senzel? The 3B eligibility for Senzel is appealing.

Justin Mason: Senzel

Justin Mason: I wish I could have answered all the questions, but I have to wrap up. please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!