Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – May 20th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: The podcast is running a little late but I will get started shortly

Matt W.: Hi Justin,

Justin Mason: Hi!

Justin Mason: I apologize for the late start

Slapshot: I don’t think I’d consider doing it right now, but if I were to think about trading Tarik Skubal in a roto dynasty format, what kind of hitters should I be targeting?

Justin Mason: If I was moving Skubal, I would want a top 20 hitter maybe even top 10

Half man, half Manzardo: Manzardo: yay, nay or just wai(t)

Justin Mason: I dropped him in one of my 15 team auctions this week. I just don’t know that there is enough playing time or punch for him to be a difference maker and stash this season

Colin: Do you trust or believe in Christian Javier?

Justin Mason: I am a believer in Javier to a point. I think the control is the scary part and there will be blowups like we saw versus Detroit, but the stuff is really good and outside of that one start he is showing that he can go deep consistently in games

The Hamburgler: Who will be better ROS: Joey Ortiz or Luis Matos?

Also, did Jake Burger rush back from injury – he’s been AWFUL.  Any signs of turning things around?

Justin Mason: Ortiz

Justin Mason: As far as burger goes, he is making very good zone contact right now and he does hit the ball hard. I think I am holding and just putting him on my bench for now.

Matt W.: Hi Justin, thanks for the chat. Broke the bank on Bello in FAAb last night. $125 bid 12 team. Will he be a difference maker? Staff is Wheeler, Valdez, Bryce Miller, Bello, Stone, Pfaadt, Braxton Garrett, Sandoval, Helsey, Suarez, Seawald and Reed Garrett. Thanks

Justin Mason: I really like Bello, but he is inconsistent and the stuff hasn’t translated to swing and miss. I think at worst he is a SP4/5 which means he has value in a 12 teamer, but I want to believe there is more upside in his arm and I just don’t know if he will actually show it this season

O knows: Before you laugh and hang up, Gunnar Henderson is the truth. Ceiling?

Justin Mason: Henderson is so interesting because I worried about his ability to hit lefties coming into the season, but he is crushing them and struggling more against righties this season. I think he has been unlucky against righties and lucky against lefties tbh. If he can even be league average against southpaws when he regresses there, he can be a stud. like a potential 40/20 bat.

tyler black: how much longer until i’m a mainstay in the lineup?  what do you think of me?

Justin Mason: It think he is a really interesting long term fantasy guy because of his speed, but the problem is that I don’t know where he plays this year. If the Brewers continue to compete as they look like they will, it is unlikely that Adames gets moved which means Black can’t find time in the lineup. Probably more of a 2025 play than this season

B’ryce Hammer: Luis Matos… smoke or fire?

Justin Mason: Maybe a little of both. He isn’t the player we saw on Friday and Saturday, but he does make good contact in the zone and he is a good centerfielder on a team that needs one with Lee out for the season. However, the Giants don’t run which is where Matos can contribute in fantasy and he doesn’t walk so it is hard to see him moving up the lineup a ton. Deep league guy only

RAGBRAI: Is JJones for KMartel a fair trade or is one side giving up to much? How about Jones for Yelich?

Justin Mason: I want Jones in both of these scenarios , but the Yelich one is more equal if I need a hitter.

Frozen Rope: Parker Meadows is raking in AAA – is he a good buy low/stash?

Justin Mason: I think he is if he can find regular playing time in the Majors. I have always liked the profile

FDR: Dropped Mountcastle for Gimenez. 10tm H2H, 5×5. How high are you on Gimenez rest of season? Thanks!

Justin Mason: I am fine with this type of move in a 10. I think Gimienez is a 15/30 type guy that won’t light the world on fire but is a really good fantasy option.

Dave: Any point in hanging onto Esteury Ruiz? I’d be satisfied with just one steal a week, but we’re not even getting that.

Justin Mason: I think he is an easy drop rn

Matt: 12 team OBP/TB roto…Ian Happ droppable at this point?

Justin Mason: I think he definitely is a drop

Adenolith: Is this Turang’s real level? I keep thinking I’m going to want to sell high and he keeps hitting and stealing bags.

Justin Mason: I think he is. A great defender that makes a ton of contact and steals bases.

Kate: Pick two of these three to start this week in a roto league with innings as a category rather than wins: Ryan Weathers (vs. MIL, @ ARI), Marsh (vs. DET), Severino (vs. SFG)

Justin Mason: Marsh and Severino

Matt: Turnbull worth stashing for another shot at starting? Or dropable?

Justin Mason: drop

Broken Bat: is bringing up Vaughn by RedSox a good idea, or does he need more time in aaa? Struggling….

Justin Mason: I saw a report that while he was on the IL he got sick and lost a bunch of weight. May be the reason he is struggling right now. I don’t mind dropping him.

Frozen Rope: What exactly do you think is wrong with Z Eflin and can he get back to last years #s (other than wins)?

Justin Mason: I think he is attacking the zone too much. His zone rate is up almost 3% which is a lot and he is way above league average in that regard. He gets people to chase and I think this is mostly a pitch mix and sequencing issue. The Rays are a smart organization so I think he will be fine.

Frozen Rope: Ty France– lost cause?

Justin Mason: I think he is mostly the guy he has always been but that is uninspiring at best.

Why not Zoidberg?: You know what would be great? If in the Sleeper and the Bust descriptions, you put timestamps where you talk about certain players/subjects.

Justin Mason: I think that is something we will try and do in the future, but because I work 80+ hours a week between multiple jobs, it isn’t feasible quite yet. I have heard the critique and I understand that it is what people want, but I unfortunately just don’t have the time presently to make it happen.

Kate: Do we know for sure if Ronel Blanco is getting a start this week?  Looks like he’s lined up to face Oakland Sunday when his suspension is up, but I don’t feel great about putting him in my lineup on the off chance he gets bumped to next week.

Justin Mason: I don’t think there is any reason to think he gets bumped to next week. they are at home early in the week so there won’t be any postponements and weather in the Bay Area should be great this weekend

Kate: Odds a Mets reliever other than Edwin Diaz accrues a meaningful number of saves the rest of the way?

Justin Mason: I think at worst he shares the job but he will continue to get opportunities with his contract.

Tim: im in a 14t H2H dynasty and need to make a move with Pepiot due back imminently. I was hoping the Cubs with IL Hoerner but they’re dithering and non-commital either way, it seems. I was going to drop Stephenson with Campusano as my C, but since he’s become the best C available, is it better to keep him, and let go of one of my minor leaguers who aren’t close, like Iriarte or Bleis? I feel like now is a bad time to drop with them both doing well these days.

Justin Mason: I would probably drop Stephenson

Frozen Rope: Please rank rest of the way 5×5 deep league: Grissom, Toro, Rafaela

Justin Mason: Rafaela, Grissom, Toro

Kate: Are the Reds going to give someone other than Alexis Diaz save opps going forward?  If so, who?  What a mess of a pen.

Justin Mason: I don’t think so because the rest of the bullpen is bad. I think if anything they trade for someone at the deadline

HomeRunTrotNixon: I turned down Carroll and Vlad Jr for Skenes and R. Suarez. Right call?

Justin Mason: I would take Carroll and Vlad

Guest: Now that Nolan Jones is off the DL, do you like his chances of rebounding into the player he is projected to be

Justin Mason: I think he was always overprojected coming into the season, but I think he will be better than he was before the injury for sure’

Frozen Rope: More saves ros: Foley or Lange?

Justin Mason: Foley

Kate: I’m assuming we’ve gotta hold our collective noses and start Musgrove for the two start this week despite coming right off the IL and two not great matchups, right?

Justin Mason: I usually skip these kind of spots outside of deeper formats.

Colton: Got a waiver wire question. Nimmo, Santander, and Hoerner have all been dropped in my 14 team H2H, 7×7 categories league. Definitely gonna try snagging Hoerner for Luis Garcia, trying to figure out if I should drop Marsh and Manzardo for Nimmo and Santander? Santander does have 1b eligibility in this league as well so he’d be an option there for me.

Justin Mason: I would make all these pickups for those guys

HappyFunBall: Jose Urquidy worth a stash in a 12xMixed?

Justin Mason: Nah

Guest: how would you handle Sale’s legit hot start vs recent injury history

Justin Mason: I think I am rolling with Sale as long as he is healthy. He has almost always been a great pitcher and a lot of his injuries last season where pretty weird and fluky.

Vince: Shout out to Luis Arraez for stealing a base last night! Margin of victory for me!

Justin Mason: Always nice to give shout outs to guys that help us!

BlueJayMatt: That’s two good (great?) starts in a row for Manoah, are you starting him next time out vs Detroit?

Justin Mason: I think you kind of have to, but he scares the crap out of me.

Gary: Do you think Musgrove can stay consistent and injury free the rest of the season

Justin Mason: I do not

Frozen Rope: Do you think Luis Urias is better than his current.162/.338/.617?

Justin Mason: Probably not

Kate: Are the White Sox really going to make Korey Lee keep sitting half their games so he can watch Maldonado go out there “be a veteran” or something?

Justin Mason: I mean, it is the White Sox.

Kate: Picked up Garrett Cooper thinking he’d at least play everyday while Casas was out, but he’s been more of a part-time guy.  Do you think he hits his way into everyday ABs?  Dom Smith has been awful.

Justin Mason: I don’t think the Red Sox have a good option until Casas gets back. I would look almost anywhere else

KC Pain: 16 teamer dynasty 6×6.  Would you move Raleigh for Burger?   I have Langeliers who appears to be a clone

Justin Mason: I would be ok with that

Kate: Is Wenceel Perez like…  good?  Or is this just a hot streak?  Could he by like a 15/15 guy with a decent avg/obp?

Justin Mason: The underlying contact skills are pretty good and they like him defensively, so there is reason to think this is a perfect projection

Kate: I told myself years ago I was done with Willie Calhoun, but he’s found his way onto my roster again.  Does he have any value going forward in a 15?

Justin Mason: Probably not long term if the Angels get healthy, but he is playing now and he has always been able to hit.

Dave: Is Xavier Edwards worth grabbing? I want to get him before he’s called up, but I’m worried the Marlins are going to just let him rot in the minors like last season.

Justin Mason: I don’t think so

Kate: Shouldn’t the Nats be finding out if a young guy like Luis Garcia can hit lefties rather than platooning him so early in his career?

Justin Mason: I agree but the Nationals have always seemed to dislike Garcia a lot more than I do.

Troy: Any preferred RP add for the Mets while Diaz works lower leverage opps?

Justin Mason: Reed Garrett if available

Hicks: Do you see Hicks having the potential to strike out more guys? He had the one 9 K game but otherwise the Ks have been light, including just 1 yesterday against Colorado (though I understand he was sick)

Justin Mason: He tends to pitch to contact a lot in the same way that Dustin May would. Velocity is great but it doesn’t always mean you are going to get swings and misses.

Guest: I’ve pretty much only ever played daily lineup moves, when people talk about benching a player, is that usually in a weekly context? in daily it’s not really a commitment to bench someone

Justin Mason: It is really dependent on your format. In daily leagues with small benches, you are likely just using guys in the lineup, but if you have weekly lineups or really deep benches in a daily league, you might have more reason to bench a player

OJ Simpson: Acknowledging it’s (relatively) early but quite behind on power numbers. In general, do you have any strategies for making up for low HRs/RBIs? Any types of players to target in trade or on waivers?

Justin Mason: This is a very complex question, but the simple way to answer it is: I look for guys that have high barrel and zone contact rates. The more opportunities you give yourself with contact the more chances you can  at the ball going over the fence.

KC: Nola start at Coors or gamble with Manoah comeback?

Justin Mason: Nola

Waylon: Do any of Busch, Pages, Matos, Gurriel, Julien, Benson, Freeman stick out above the others or are these all rotational bats through the 5th OF/UT spot in a 12-team mixed?

Justin Mason: Busch or Pages for me

Guest: Is Tyler Stephenson going to be good this year?

Justin Mason: The underlying skills are looking much better, but I have a hard to trusting that he can keep them intact after years of disappointment. I think he is a worthy gamble if you are searching for a catcher

Frozen Rope: Very deep league, please rank in order of # of saves ROS: Weaver, Erceg, Thielbar, Schreiber thanks!

Justin Mason: Schreiber has been really good and I think he would be the top choice. Erceg next in case the A’s trade Miller

Broken bat: The Reds are the National league version of Angels. A super star and going nowhere. They can’t sort their outfield now, Bull,pen is a mess, and when McClain and Norte get back it wil be the infield mess. Why?

Justin Mason: It is a little early to call them that but I understand the comp

Pedro: Hey Justin.  Need to cut one of these in an AL only 5×5:  Canzone, Palacios, DeLuca.  Thanks in advance for your help.

Justin Mason: Deluca

HappyFunBall: Luis Matos is essentially an outfield Lewis Arraez, true or false?

Justin Mason: I think he has a bit more power and speed, but it isn’t a bad comp

Guest: Do you like Luis Garcia Jr in a 12 team league?

Justin Mason: I feel like in a 12, I can get a little better

HappyFunBall: Deciding between a couple of power-only bat stashes? Soderstrom or Loperfido? If SoderStrom was to earn catcher eligibility back, that would be an easy call.. but at the moment he seems to be a first baseman

Justin Mason: Lopefido

Guest: Luis Matos’ 2024 RBI total is hilarious – as many as Tyler O’Neill, more than Corbin Carroll. Matos has been up fewer days than O’Neill has homers.

Justin Mason: was sitting on my bench in my Main Event…

Phil: Marco Luciano has been decent since he was called up. Post hype sleeper to hold/ watch in a 12 team H2H keeper?

Justin Mason: I think they talent has always been there, but his contact skills have never really developed and he has struggled with health. I think the Giants should just commit to him and see what they have, but I don’t know that they will

CMACK: Any belief in Heaney turning this ship around??

Justin Mason: I am a sucker for Heaney, but I just don’t think he ever figures it out

more on Happ: Happ or Wenceel? Happ or Schneider? Happ or Connor Joe?

Justin Mason: Wenceel

Alek Man oh Man: Okay…NOW I’m back

Justin Mason: I don’t believe you .gif

Brax: You giving up on Braxton Garrett after two starts?

Justin Mason: No, too soon to say that

Phil: Schneider or Luis Garcia for 12 team MI, H2H?

Justin Mason: Garcia for me, but I have always been a Schneider denyer

Dusty: Need to make an SP drop to make room for a batter. King, Bradley or Scott?

Justin Mason: King

Topher: I’ve been trying to find a steady fill in at 3b since losing Royce Lewis (dynasty league) HS Kim hasn’t been good, then it was Michael Busch and now I’ve grabbed Joey Ortiz. I also have an offer out there for Christopher Morel (Jordan Hicks and Zack Littell for him). Is he worth perusing?

Justin Mason: I am not a Morel guy but I don’t think giving up Hicks or Littell is a bad offer if that gets it done.

Tim: Thoughts on Jake Meyers? Absolutely crushing right now (see statcast page). This years Chas McCormick?

Justin Mason: I think he is definitely getting lucky (.400 BABIP vs RHP), but he is making decent contact and is a good defender, so he might be able to ride this hot streak for a while. He is more of a .250-.260 hitter in my mind

Why not Zoidberg?: Soler was dropped in our 8-team. Is he an upgrade over Varsho and/or Kepler? (Injuries have decimated me)

Justin Mason: I think he is power upgrade for sure, but I think that Varsho is the more intriguing player because of the speed.

Chip: Should I be starting Josh Rojas or Yandy D until Royce Lewis returns?

Justin Mason: Diaz

Chip: Do you think the Braves have an AED and can they use it on Acuna?

Justin Mason: Seems like he got something today!

Sandy: If you were speculating saves, who would occupy your last RP slot in head to head 5×5?

Justin Mason: Cano

KC Pain: 16 team dynasty 6×6 (deep rosters with 30 prospects slots too) keep one, trade one, cut one of Mitchell Parker, Slade Cecconi, and DL Hall?

Justin Mason: Cecconi

Andrew: In a 12 teamer redraft, rest-of-season feelings on Doyle, Adell, and O’Hearn?

Justin Mason: I want Doyle here. He has made improvements in the contact skills and has power and speed plus he plays in Colorado.

Troy: Dynasty -15 teams: Glasnow for Skenes and Heston Kjerstad?

Justin Mason: Give me the pair

Woomp there it is: Should I sell high on Woo before he gets hurt again?

Justin Mason: Yes

KC Pain: In a dynasty would you be trying to keep or move Keller, Bibee, and Gausman?  Been up and down with all of them.

Justin Mason: I would hold Bibee and Gausman, but if I could get a good price on Keller I would.

Ess peas: Heaney or P Sandoval or just try match ups (even in a deep league where they might disappear)?

Justin Mason: Matchups

Don Von Handburger: Someone in my 12-team mixer dropped Michael King.  My weakness is SP, should I empty my FAAB to get him?  I would be dropping Danny Coulumbe or some other junk

Justin Mason: I wouldn’t empty my faab, but I would target him

Bash Bros: What do you expect out of Caballero ROS? Should I try and sell high for a team low on steals, or sit back and enjoy the unexpected production?

Justin Mason: I would just enjoy the production

Why not Zoidberg?: For the record, timestamps is less of a critique and more of a friendly suggestion. Your work is appreciated regardless.

Justin Mason: I appreciate it!

Doug: What is going on with Acuna? Does he have any value on the trade market or is he a hold?

Justin Mason: HOLD

Bo Jackson’s SI bodypaint pants: is this the season Taj breaks out? Are you buying?

Justin Mason: I am as long as the cutter velo sticks around. I think this is the perfect example of a post-hype sleeper.

Don Von Handburger: In an OBP, should I start to pay attention to David Fry?

Justin Mason: Absolutely. I have picked him up in a ton of two-catcher leagues.

Singleton: I’ve been liking singleton in my al obp league but Abreu is coming back. Time to cut or will he keep playing?

Justin Mason: Hard to know, but I think it becomes an annoying time share.

Don Von Handburger: Are you more likely to respond to an italicized question?

Justin Mason: probably not

Justin Mason: I have a few minutes left and a ton of questions so I will speed round as many as I can.

Caminero: How long to hold Caminero in al only keeper league vs buying low on bo Bichette or similar?

Justin Mason: Jason said on the pod on Sunday that he thinks Caminero might be up soon, so I would hold

Jay: Randy Arozarena. Is it time to drop him? I have Grayson Rodriguez on IL and I need to activate him. It’s a shallow 10t. I’ve got Mookie, Teoscar, Suzuki and JRod so I don’t need Randy right?

Justin Mason: I am not dropping Randy

Don Von Handburger: Why doesn’t Yennier Cano strike out more guys?

Justin Mason: He pitches to contact a lot to get out of innings more quickly and because the park is large and protects him

Frank: Do we think Eugenio Suarez is cooked? Really tough start to the year in AZ

Justin Mason: I just dropped him in a 15 teamer. I don’t know if he is cooked, but the new ball hurts him more than most I think.

whatever: Do you think Kutter and Houck are aces?

Justin Mason: Houck for sure is and Kutter is on the cusp

Mike: Cowser was just dropped in my league (10 team OBP). Is he a must-add?

Justin Mason: Not a must add, but a guy I would want to

Don Von Handburger: Which of the old-rehabbing-aces are you most optimistic for: Cole, Scherzer, or Kershaw?

Justin Mason: Kershaw

Justin Mason: but I am hopeful on all of them

KC Pain: Do you think there will be a team that waits too long and fails to sell an asset like last years Tigers-Dodgers E-Rod derp?

Justin Mason: there usually is every year

Average Joe: Dump Alexis Diaz for better ratios of co-closers Hoffman or Cleavinger?

Justin Mason: nah

gary: I see that Brando Pfaadt has strung together some quality starts recently and of course was great in the playoffs. Do you see him as a future No. 1 or 2 starter

Justin Mason: I think he has the stuff to be a 2/3. Has been unlucky in the strand rate this season. I am sitting him vs the Dodgers tho

KC Pain: Why are the Phillies trying to make Turnbull a RP? Guy had 1 RP in his career before this.  Seems like keep him at SP until he proves he cant is the obvious call????

Justin Mason: I think it is workload management after not throwing a lot of innings last season and they are stacked in the rotation.

whatever: Kutter or Houck?

Justin Mason: Houck, but love both

Pickles: Do you prefer dill or bread and butter style pickles?

Justin Mason: Dill

Don Von Handburger: What is the “deepest” league you have ever participated in?

Justin Mason: I am in a 30-team keeper league with 100 man rosters and real life contracts.

Guest: is it time to start stashing Noelvi Marte? or still wait a bit

Justin Mason: I think I would probably wait another week or two

Kevin: You interested in Kevin Pillar at all, or is this just a hot streak?

Justin Mason: just a hot streak

Fart Arbuckle: Pham or Pages ROS in a 12T 5×5 redraft

Justin Mason: Pham

seth: keeper league (keepable for 3 total years), S+H, colson montgomery+matt strahm for vinnie p+flaherty. fair ‘win now’ for rebuilding trade?

Justin Mason: I think it is fairish.

lebrons legacy: traded suarez for jd martinez, qs/OBP h2H 10cats league, how’d i do?

Justin Mason: Not too bad but maybe could have gotten a little more

Start One This Week: Manaea vs SF / Manoah @ DET / Gavin Stone vs ARI

Justin Mason: Stone unless I need the K’s

Don Von Handburger: Cedric Mullins had a good first few weeks of the season, but since then he can’t hit himself out of a wet paper bag.  WTF?

Justin Mason: I am biased, but I think he will turn it around

Guest: Any guess how long we still have to wait for Jordan Walker’s return?

Justin Mason: No idea tbh. He hasn’t been great in the minors when I last looked, but I also haven’t looked in the last week or so

Frozen Rope: Justin thank you for doing this every week, always appreciated!

Justin Mason: Love doing these chats! Thank you all for the great questions

Phil: What is your outlook on J Springs ROS?

Justin Mason: I never roster guys coming back form TJ

MS: You running Nola out there at Coors this weekend?

Justin Mason: Yes

KC Pain: Orioles….what are they doing?  I get they are so good they dont have to maximize value, but why the jerking around of Stowers and Kjerstad?  Stowers 5 ab in a week. Just make some trades among Mullins, Hays, Santander, Kjerstad, and Stowers and be done with it. Also, if they planned to move instead of keep Mayo….ouch.  Where does Norby fit in it all?

Justin Mason: So hard when they have so much talent. I wish they would move on from some of the older less productive players and just give the young guys more chances, but I think the will soon.

Justin Mason: Unfortunately I have to wrap up

Justin Mason: Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!