Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – May 13th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Will start once I have some more questions

Guest: Richie Palacios or Brendan Donovan in OBP rest of the year?

Justin Mason: Donovan for me. He just does enough of everything and I think the Cardinals have to be better at some point.

God: Manoah?

Justin Mason: Maybe I am just too bitter after last season, but I am still pretty skeptical. Good to see him go seven in his last outing, but I am not a buyer yet

Oh no: Is Cedric Mullins toast?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is toast. Still making very good zone contact and the velocities aren’t down much. The park and a deader ball maybe hurting him and he is getting unlucky in the BABIP. However, the Orioles are stacked and I do worry that they may not give him time to break out of this.

Guest: Hey Justin, where are you on Evan Carter?  Would you even consider dropping him in a 10 team,5 OF roto league for one of Jason Dominguez, Davis Scheider( I know sounds crazy) or Jackson Merrill, allo f whom have far better quality of contact metrics.  Thanks

Justin Mason: I don’t think I am dropping Carter for any of those guys, but I am concerned a little bit. Mostly about his platoon splits. I don’t think he can hit lefties and in a 10-team league you don’t want a platoon bat unless they are just amazing versus righties.

Guest: what’s the difference between “barrels” and “squared up” in the new statcast metrics?

Justin Mason: Honestly, I don’t know. I need to do more research on that.

Guest: Andres Gimenez vs. Maikel Garcia rest of season

Justin Mason: Garcia

Guest: In a sold league, would you drop either of tanner scott or pressley for a streamer? No usage for Scott and pressley getting ripped. Also have Fairbanks and minter

Justin Mason: I would definitely drop Pressley. Probably would hold scott

Henry: Is Pages must own in 10tm formats?

Justin Mason: I definitely think he should be rostered in most league sizes. I want a piece of that Dodgers offense.

1B Issues: Hi Justin, in 15-team dynasty h2h 5×5, first base has been disastrous for me. Do I want Kirilloff, Schanuel, Bell or O’Hearn? Thanks again, Justin.

Justin Mason: If you are competing, now, I would say O’Hearn. If you are on the fence or not competing, then Schanuel.

Stanley Streamer: What are your thoughts about M. Parker for a QS league ROS?

Justin Mason: Parker is a really interesting guy. He showed a lot more swing and miss in the minors than he has in the Majors. He also hasn’t gone deep enough yet in a game to even qualify for a QS and honestly, I don’t think he will very often.

Guest: If you roster Matt Olson, there’s no other alternative but just to ride it out until he turns it around right?

Justin Mason: Talked about him on the pod today. He will be fine I think

SP Start Sit: 12T roto: Start Bryce Miller @ BAL or Scott @ PHI? Leaning the former due to Scott’s long ball weakness and the park factor

Justin Mason: Miller

Phil: 12 tm H2H with BA, OBP, Slg%. How do you rank Schneider, Julien, India for a MI?

Justin Mason: Julien, India, Schneider

Guest: We going to see Orelivs Martinez up in the bigs sometime soon? Jays don’t seem in any particular hurry.

Justin Mason: I am surprised he is not already up. I am going to guess he actually still needs to work on the defense, so there is no telling when without prospect guys giving up a good report he has improved there.

Bob: Lost Contreras; better replacement: Jansen, Ivan Herrera or Moreno?

Justin Mason: Jansen

Signs of Life?: Goldy

Justin Mason: He has been better recently. Another guy we talked about on the pod today. I am a little worried that Father Time has caught up with him a little, but I am holding for now in most formats.

seth: would you rather start Verlander vMIL or Abbott @ARI this week?

Justin Mason: Verlander

Guest: Fedde or Paddack ROS?

Justin Mason: Paddack

Justin Mason: but that is close tbh

Jordan Monthomery: I got him as a speculative claim when he was dropped in my 14t H2H dynasty. The numbers don’t look too great, standard or deeper; is there hope for a rebound of the SO% or did I go out of my way to pick up a (risky) streamer?

Justin Mason: I think he will be fine as he settles in. He missed a lot of prep time by signing late. I am still holding right now.

Phil: H2H keeper, who is more valuable- Holliday or Langford? Would you trade one for Jose Ramirez?

Justin Mason: Langford, but I wouldn’t trade J-Ram straight up for either tbh

spach06: How do you rank these guys for the remainder of the season? (QS league) Taj, Fedde, Scott, Olson, Lodolo, Crochet, Baz

Justin Mason: Lodolo, Crochet, Olson, Scott, Taj, Baz, Fedde

Insert Witty Name Here: In the bottom tier in my 12 team, when does it get too late in the season to even think about going on a strong heater?

Justin Mason: August

Justin Mason: Do not give up on your teams right now! Rob Silver was in last place in his Main Event league in June or July when he won the NFBC Main Event overall. Other people will give up in their leagues, take advantage of them

Justin Mason: Especially in shallower formats. Less teams to climb over and more available waiver players mean you can make bigger moves.

Spaceman: Best IL stash in a 15 teamer: Nolan Jones, Kris Bryant, Jeffrey Springs? When is Bryant due back approximately?

Justin Mason: Jones

Dan: Lamonte Wade Jr has been sneaky good and is probably a full-time player now especially with all SFs injuries. 12-team relevant? 10?

Justin Mason: I don’t know about a 10, but in a 12 for sure

seth: siri and deluca are going to end up splitting enough time to be unrosterable arent they? rays position player cycling always ends up destroying things

Justin Mason: Yeah, that is probably the case tbh

Pitching conundrum: Weekly lineup: Manning 2-step (Mia, @Ari). Butto 2-step (@Mia, Phi). Or Braxton Garret (NYM).

Justin Mason: I think I go Manning

Le Grand Orange: Your thoughts on Gasser?  Any reason to think he will make an impact in 2024?

Justin Mason: I am not as big of a fan of Gasser for fantasy as others. I don’t see a massive stud of a pitcher here. More like a very usable good real life one. Similar output to a Reese Olson but left handed?

Kyle Stowers: I just got called up. I wonder if I’ll get more than one plate appearance

Justin Mason: It is so hard to tell what the Orioles are going to do with their call ups. They are just so stacked.

Mark: Have saved 98/100 of my FAAB so far, in 2nd but gonna need a game changer to make the leap to 1st. How much to bid of that remaining FAAB on one Mr. Skenes?

Justin Mason: 40+

Support level: Done deal.  Looking for mental support.  I successfully acquired Hader for 30% of my FAAB. My philosophy is a guy like that in MID MAY, well worth it.  H2H, re-draft, 12 team points.  Your 3 cents, pls. Ergo, IMO plenty FAAB left foe ROS, as needed…..or another big splash.

Justin Mason: I am ok doing that if you are getting a real difference maker, but then you have to play it smart the rest of the way. Losing 30% of your faab may hurt come august and September, but getting a elite close can change an entire category, so I am ok with that.

Justin Mason: For instance, I spent about 30% of my faab last year on Eury Perez in a high stakes league. Was it worth it? Yes, but it also made things really difficult to manage when I only had 5% of my faab remaining down the stretch.

Guest: Erceg or Gaddis if saves don’t matter?

Justin Mason: Erceg

Dave: Right now I’m trying to stream guys in my UT spot in a league with daily moves. Have Kepler and Pages, just picked up Tork after he was dropped… beyond “is he facing a poor SP?” what kind of things do you look at for making day-to-day changes?

Justin Mason: Tork is actually making the best zone contact of his career and he is starting to hard in recent weeks. I think this is a pretty good pick up.

Insert Witty Name Here: Need advice on catchers in a 12 tm OBP league. Have OHoppe, wire has Fry, Wong, McGuire, E. Diaz, and Ryan Doumit. Any of them an upgrade?

Justin Mason: I am sticking with O’Hoppe

Guest: Devers for Jared Jones a fair swap?

Justin Mason: I think you should get a little more for Devers but it is closer than I ever expected.

Special guest: Do you view Kutter as a guy to ride until the wheels fall off, or someone to try to trade away sooner than later?

Justin Mason: I am holding and riding with him. Love the arsenal

Guest: O’s are calling up Kyle Stowers, any interest?  He’s another LHB for their OF so I’m not sure what their plan is here…

Justin Mason: I think he is someone I might pick up and stash but I have no idea how the playing time works out.

Dave: Noelvi Marte is about a month away from coming off his suspension- are you pre-emptively picking him up anywhere?

Justin Mason: I might in a couple of weeks, but I am not stashing for a month

andy: bregman has to turn it around soon, right

Justin Mason: Talked about him on the pod today too. I am a little worried that the ball is hurt him. I think he will be better, but maybe not as good as we initially thought.

Le Grand Orange: If catchers are going to move up to frame pitches and get in the way of professionally swung baseball bats, how about armor for catchers from behind the mitt to near the elbow on their receiving arm?

Justin Mason: Can we please just get an automatic  strike zone!!

andy: are you buying in on kepler or is this just a babip-induced hot streak?

Justin Mason: He is hitting the ball harder, but a .364 BABIP is fueling a lot of this. I have always been a fan so I might stick this out a bit

Guest: Carroll’s bat speed looks great, although Samulski thinks the injury is still showing, just in a flatter bat path. so is it too optimistic to be encouraged by the 74.4 mph swing?

Justin Mason: I don’t know if we know enough about the metric to read too much into it. Another guy we talked about today. I am a little worried about the shoulder but I also don’t think the Diamondbacks would be playing him so much and letting him steal if they were that worried.

Fant’sy Feast: Hi Justin, thanks for doing these! I’ve got a bunch of questionable OF in a weekly lineups 5×5 roto. Start/sit question: would you start DeLuca or Fraley over Nootbaar or Tauchman? Reds are facing 5 RHP and Friedl looks to be day to day. Tauch and Noot both seem pretty secure at the top of the order most days but these guys all feel pretty close to me.

Justin Mason: I am rolling with Mike Tauchman and Lars Nootbaar here.

Guest: is Soler worth keeping an eye on? He’s been pretty bad and not integrate offensive environment, plus his shoulder injury.

Justin Mason: I think a shoulder injury like this for a power hitter is always concerning. If healthy, I have no concerns, but I want to see what the shoulder looks like

andy: eloy has been pretty crap recently. should he be rostered in 12 team leagues? alternatives would be adell, schneider, taveras

Justin Mason: Give me adell or tavares

B’ryce Hammer: Can we get real on Alex Bregman? In a 10 team H2H points (redraft), is he worth holding over a SS/3B stack of Elly D, Oneil Cruz, CJ Abrams?

Justin Mason: I think he should be rostered in a 10, but maybe not on your team if you are that stacked.

Bo Knows?: Is Bo Bichette early struggles explained entirely by his .233 BABIP, or is there more to the story? Looks like he isn’t making nearly the quality of contact compared to prior years. Injury, mechanics, bad luck, sss?

Justin Mason: Another guy we talked about on the pod today! Definitely make sure y’all go and listen or check it out on my youtube. I am a little worried about the quality of contact for sure, but he is making a lot of zone contact and I think he will be better, but maybe not the stud he once was.

Bdubs: Worth holding on to Cano as a just in case stash or wasting valuable bench (allowed 2) slot? Current closers: Fairbanks, Megill, Yates.

Justin Mason: I think you can drop for a streaming player. I do think Cano could take over at some point, but that bench spot is worth more if you already have three guys.

first place problems?: Should i sit Kikuchi at Bal. in order to start Gil home against the WS?

Justin Mason: yes

Guest: O’Neill’s blazing start hiding a .536 OPS/45% K May so far. pumpkin?

Justin Mason: Too early to say he is turning back into a pumpkin, but this is very concerning. He may still be hurt.

Guest: Have to ask about James Wood’s anticipated call up. Carroll and Ian Happ aren’t really helping my offense.

Justin Mason: There is no reason for Washington to being him up and start his clock unfortunately.

Sppoints: Hi there, Paddack, Gavin Stone, and Turnbull on the wire in a shallowish points league.  How would you rank them?  Any concern about Stone losing his rotation spot? Plus his advanced stats are mediocre at best.

Justin Mason: For me it is Paddack, Stone, Turnbull

Dave: Where does MacKenzie Gore fall for you right now– mostly/usually start, team streamer, waiver wire streamer?  Nick Pollack seems to really like his stuff

Justin Mason: I have always been a big fan of MacKenzie and I agree that the stuff is great. He has been a bit more wild and hittable recently tho and he pitches on a bad team. I think he is a team streamer in most formats.

JD Mart: JDs underlying numbers look ok, how do you feel about him ROS.  Or would you rather have a Pham, Cowser, Conforto, Soler

Justin Mason: I’ll stick with JD right now.

MIHelp: Am I crazy for picking up Brujan in a shallow points league over guys like Neto, Caballero, and Josh Rojas?  On fire last three weeks and triple eligible at 2b, 3b, and ss.

Justin Mason: I don’t think so. Brjuan has a ton of speed and they are letting him play. Love the eligibility too.

Jay Z: Can I get a what what?

Justin Mason: WHAT WHAT

How’d I do?: Triston McKenzie for Brayan Rocchio, $5 faab and a 3rd round taxi (minor league) pick.

Justin Mason: I am ok with that

Jay Z: You crazy for this one Justin!

Justin Mason: looooool

Chip: I just dropped Cedric Mullins (.259 xwoba) for Davis Schneider (.376). Shallow-ish 12-team H2H  league, bench bat. Crazy, or crazy like a fox?

Justin Mason: I think they both will regress to the mean tbh, but I don’t mind riding hot streaks. Just be ready to switch back or out for other guys

Friedl’s Thumb: Is Friedls thumb injury giving you pause?  How does he rank compared to Ward and Pages?

Justin Mason: Sounds like it isn’t super serious. I prefer Friedl over both Pages and Ward, but if he is going to miss time with the injury, I can understand switching out for one of them. Prefer Pages and that Dodgers offense.

JimboJack: Crazy to Chourio or Holliday in a keeper? One of the needs to go. I need the spot. Interest is lukewarm trade-wise.

Justin Mason: I would not drop either. I’d hate to lose one of them. Someone rebuilding has to want them from you for something.

B’ryce Hammer: Swap J. Means out for Manoah as a bench upside play?

Justin Mason: Nah

andy: is schneider becoming a viable bat to hold in shallower formats?

Justin Mason: The underlying contact skills on Schneider still aren’t great. I have been a detractor and I don’t see a ton in the profile to change my mind yet. He is running a pretty massive babip that is fueling things.

Spaceman: Devers plus Lodolo for Matt Olson in a 14 team redraft?

Justin Mason: I don’t think you need to give up Lodolo plus Devers here. Maybe Devers and a lesser arm?

Guest: Thoughts on Walker Buehler so far? Still getting his footing or is it a long road ahead?

Justin Mason: Command is always the last thing for a TJ returner to get back. One of the reasons I was out on him this year was because he is so command reliant. I think he will be better, but you’ll have to be paitent.

carlos: got offered strider for james wood and luis castillo in a keeper – i am rebuilding team w/vlad jr, devers, langford, chourio as other pieces – that’s a bad deal right?

Justin Mason: I wouldn’t do that

Guest: How much is too much to spend on a haircut?

Justin Mason: I shave my own head, so I haven’t paid for a haircut in a decade lol

Justin Mason: Perks of going bald

Justin Mason: ok, I have just a few minutes left and a ton of questions, so let’s speed round this.

David Schneider: Has my longer mustache helped improve my chances of a breakout this year?

Justin Mason: Mustaches are the key to success

Phil: Follow up, Langford and Adames for JRam an ok trade offer?

Justin Mason: I think so

You’re our only hope: When will we see James Wood?

Justin Mason: July

Fant’sy Feast: Should I still be starting Foley over Cano this week? Baltimore is a much better team but their CL sitch seems murky still

Justin Mason: If you need saves then yes

Joe adell: It looks like I have figured out how to swing at pitches in the zone more frequently, and this seems to be driving down my k rate, swinging strike rate…. Is that how you read it? how sustainable would you say that is?

Justin Mason: I think there are real skill changes here. We need to monitor them more closely because it is still small sample, but I am a buyer

Schneider stan: I love that Davis Schneider is barreling up on everything, but I really want to play Pham this week over him. If I drop Schneider will I end up regretting it?

Justin Mason: I don’t think you will

Austin Hays: How useful in AL only am I when I return?

Justin Mason: Where do you play?

Alejandro Kirk: Am I toast?

Justin Mason: Not toast, but we won’t see you breakout

Dave in slc: Mason black worth a shot over ross In an nl only keeper right?

Justin Mason: yeah

Bandit: In 16 team dynasty with salary escalation, we ended up with Elias Diaz, Nolan Jones, Brenton Doyle and Ryan McMahon. Is this bad process?

Justin Mason: I don’t know that it is a bad process, but that is a lot of players on a bad team and some of them don’t have great skills.

Kersh: Kershaw worth a stash in 12T?

Justin Mason: If you have an open IL slot

Schneider stan: Sorry – meant to say drop Schneider for Pham. I think I left that part out

Justin Mason: Give me pham

Oooh piece of candy: Will Jesse Winker’s back spasms give way to James Wood call up?

Justin Mason: no

Black Magic Woman: Will Carlos Santana continue to rock out? Projected slash line?

Justin Mason: Nah, he is just on a hot streak

Stanley Streamer: Do you trust Shelby, Estavez, and Maton ROS in NSVH leagues?

Justin Mason: I trust estevez to a point. Not so much the others.

Jon: Tatis and Bichette for Altuve and Seager, which side are you taking?

Justin Mason: That’s tough.

Justin Mason: I think I want Seager side

Pick Me: Hi Justin, trying to figure out my last pitching spot this week, would you go with the Bibee 2 step or Bello this week?

Justin Mason: Bibee

spach06: solds league, rank: joe jimenez, reed garrett and trevor megill

Justin Mason: Megill, Garrett, jimenez

Tim: What do you make of the “mechanical adjustments” Senga is now undergoing in his return? Do you trust the Mets? I’m not sure I do.

Justin Mason: I don’t love a injured guy needing to make mechanical changes.

David A: NL only keeper…trade Chourio for Alonso?  Need upgrade at 1B and in win now mode

Justin Mason: yes

oyster burns: seiya for taj bradley feel fair?

Justin Mason: prefer seiya

Chris: start or sit A Riley this week?

Justin Mason: start

Bandit: You looking to sell low on Bichette or Xander?

Justin Mason: Maybe Bichette if I am not selling too low

SG: Caminero worth the stash? Seems like every hyped dude getting the call this year is starting super slow or sittin.

Justin Mason: I don’t think so

Justin Mason: He is still so young

seth: Verlander for Arenado+DRob, which side would you rather have?

Justin Mason: Verlander

Guest: If Matt Olsen was hitting like last year I would move up about 10 points in standings for HR, Runs, RBI and OPS. Anything under the hood to suggest that he won’t regress to the mean in a positive way? Thanks, enjoy listening to you and Paul every day.

Justin Mason: We talked about him on the pod today so go and listen. I think he will be fine

JG: Is Jackson Chourio sill a hold on the bench in a 12T mixed roto?

Justin Mason: I think so

Dave in slc: Do you like beeks or lawerece more as closer for thr rockies? I wish it didn’t matter but I’m in nl only and my other guys are a Diaz and hunter Harvey, so need some saves

Justin Mason: Lawrence I guess

Ampersand: Jackson Chourio or Wyatt Langford ROS?

Justin Mason: Chourio but it is close. I like them both

Dave in slc: You Mason black take please?! Just picked him up in nl only

Justin Mason: Mediocre innings eater at some point, but he isn;t there yet

Chris: J Rojas or M Tauchman this week in 5×5 roto if steals matter a little but not the most

Justin Mason: Tauchman

Daro: Drop one out of Kepler Tauchman Profar and O’Hearn avg obp slg league

Justin Mason: drop O’Hearn

JG: Who do you like more in a daily roto : Lamonte Wade or Carlos Santana ?

Justin Mason: Wade

Kate: What kind of upside do you see in Wenceel Perez?  Is there anything there that might be useful long-term in fantasy?  Or is this more likely just a hot streak for a guy that is probably a utility player?

Justin Mason: He is probably more of a fourth outfielder that will play for now.

Weez the juice: Need power! I just offered Jordan Montgomery for Torkelson, do you think this is a good deal? I have tons of pitching: Nola, Castillo, Jared Jones, Skenes, Houck, Crochet, Braxton Garrett with Cole and Eovaldi waiting on IL.

Justin Mason: I think that is fair

The Old Professir: 6×6 OPS ROTO LEAGUE.. Luis Garcia or Bryson Stott ROS?

Justin Mason: Stott

Dave: Anything actionable to be done with Gleyber, or are you just holding for now?

Justin Mason: I am holding in most leagues, but probably the most concerned about him out of the guys we talked about today on the pod.

Sniping slumpers: Of the cold start guys, who would you recommend looking to trade for?

Justin Mason: Olson and Carroll

Guest: More confidence in Andy Pages or Jo Adell moving forward?

Justin Mason: Adell

Guest: Continued: I’m worried about the cast surrounding Ward

Justin Mason: Me too

Guest: 10T: Drop Ward, Suzuki, or Mountcastle for any of Kepler, Pages, Tavares, E Rosario?

Justin Mason: Nah

The Old Professir: 12 team ROTO 6×6 Roto .. Volpe or Bichette ROS?

Justin Mason: Volpe

Brian: What’s up with Evan Carter?…day to day? IL?…not much on waivers,,,best is Morel, but would have to drop Caminero….roll dice with Carter?

Justin Mason: Can’t hit lefties

Justin Mason: unfortunately, I am out of time.

Justin Mason: Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!