Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – March 20th, 2023

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Cedric Mullins: That home run was for you last night!! <3

Justin Mason: You’re the best!

Greg: In trade talks in my dynasty league and the trade has come down to this question – would I rather have Framber Valdez or Zack Wheeler as the pitcher coming back to me in the deal. What’s your thought process on that, considering it’s a dynasty points league with a scoring system that favors innings pitched and strikeouts?

Justin Mason: Wheeler is the better pitcher, but Valdez is a bit safer especially long term. If you are trying to compete now, go Wheeler.

KevinT: Did you draft in TOUT wars this weekend? If so, how do you feel like you did.

Justin Mason: I did! It was a fantastic time as always. I think I did fairly well. I played the middle as I usually do because some of the prices early were insane. I made a couple minor mistakes but other than that, the team came together as envisioned. I will write it up today and post it on the site tomorrow.

KevinT: Andrew Benintendi was a big target for me b4 this weekend (starting to second guess myself). Thought he could recover the power to 15-20 and get back to stealing bases, 10-15. Not so convinced anymore. Did you regret drafting boring guys like Verdugo last year in your ME?

Justin Mason: I definitely regretted drafting both Verdugo and Benintendi together. They can have a supporting role, but if you have too many of those guys, there is not enough juice.

Tim: I’m a Jazz Chisholm owner In a dynasty league. We also have three OF spots that are specific to the positions, so you start one LF, one CF, one RF. I have Trout as my CF. I’m one of the best teams in the league, but trying to balance if I hold Jazz as my 2B this year and deal with the future later, or should I try to move on from him now?

Justin Mason: It really depends on what you can get back. If I can get a top 50 player for Jazz, I would probably do that.

KevinT: Are you seeing any standouts from the TGFBI ADP (great job sharing that) that is making you do more research b4 ME next weekend?

Justin Mason: Not really. I am mostly watching lineups and velocity and keeping track of injury news at this point. That is the main thing that moves the needle for me.

DC: Who has the highest upside among these guys – Kyle Bradish, Clarke Schmidt, Matthew Boyd, Luis Ortiz, Matthew Liberatore?

Justin Mason: It is probably Boyd, but I think all are very interesting outside of Liberatore who probably is on the outside looking in.

Paul: Tatis in a keeper league – how are you handling him? Been a while since he’s been on the field, multiple surgeries since then plus the PED stuff. I go back and forth on what to expect from him long term.

Justin Mason: I have only drafted him this year in a bestball because I don’t really know what to expect. Biggest risk/reward play there is this year.

Gary: I appreciate all the fantasy content you guys pump out. Any conversation about increasing dynasty content?

Justin Mason: I am not really in control of that conversation, but I do do a dynasty themed episode of the FWFB baseball podcast each week and I am recording the next episode tonight.

KevinT: 2nd base is getting killed this offseason. Lux, Rodgers, now Altuve. Are you being more aggressive with your 2nd base rankings now? How would you feel about coming out of ME season with boring guys like Chris Taylor or Donovan (who is a little less boring) as your main 2nd

Justin Mason: I think you have to be more aggressive with all the injuries. There are still guys to be had, but moving the ones you want up a round or so is smart. I like Brendon Donovan a lot. Going to hit high up in a great lineup and looks like he may have added some sneaky power this year. He is a big target for me.

Chas: Hi, Justin, how far are you dropping Edwin Diaz in your ranks in a 12-team league with 3 IL spots?

Justin Mason: He is completely off my board unless I have unlimited IL spots.

Ben: If you had to guess, does Bobby Witt have a higher or lower ADP at this time next year?

Justin Mason: Lower, but not by much

Dan: Will the Angels stay with a six man rotation or will they have Ohtani throw every fifth day?  Thanks

Justin Mason: From what I have seen, they are going to throw him every sixth day so it is  mix between the two.

Ban the platoons: Any chance Yepez in STL, Fraley in Cin, or Alek Thomas in AZ get 450 ABs?

Justin Mason: I think Thomas has the best chance because of his good spring and defense.

KevinT: How do you feel about strikeout stallwarts like Karinchak? Feel like he might be a better option as your 9th pitcher most weeks than a starter.

Justin Mason: In deeper formats, I would agree.

Henry: Given the news about Soto’s “mild oblique,” are you moving him down at all?  Or is this just caution by the Pads following WBC with the season just around the corner and you are leaving him be?

Justin Mason: I am a little concerned, but I am not moving him down a ton unless we get worse news.

Poof: Are the Braves really going to mess with Grissom’s upward momentum and send him to AAA? What will they do with him if he can’t handle SS?

Justin Mason: I think he makes the team but isn’t playing SS every day. The bat should keep him up.

Carl: How in are you on Jordan Walker? I’ve seen some concerns about his SWStr% at the low levels and this spring, but the K% seems fine.

Justin Mason: I am in on Walker, but the hype is getting a little much. I think he is a top 150 player right now, maybe a top 75 if he is up opening day, but people are starting to draft him a bit higher than even me

Peter: Hi Justin,

Justin Mason: HI!

MrMet: Who would you rather have in an OBP league for the next three years? Wander Franco or Gunnar Henderson

Justin Mason: Franco

Michael: Thanks for hosting the chat and all your wonderful articles.  I recently made a trade and would like to know your thoughts.  Points league, 15 keepers (free) about 25 player rosters.  Prospects generally can be had super cheap as long as you grab them 1+ years out.  C, 1b, 2b, SS, 3b, 3 OF, 5 SP, 2 RP.  The trade: I give Gunner Henderson and Vinnie P for Jacob deGrom and Ozzie Albies.  I should mention I have Freddie Freeman, Alex Bregman, currently no 2B (drafting Thursday), starting pitching is really shallow in this format, competitive this year, and do have a decent SP staff already (Nola, Bieber, Woodruff, Joe Ryan).  Thanks in advance!

Justin Mason: I love this trade

Peter: Favorite late round sleeper pitchers of J. Steele, B. Ober, J.Suarez, K. Bradish, S. Turnbull, B.Bello, R. Contreras, D. Dodd, J. Shuster?

Justin Mason: Between Suarez and Bradish for me.

Josh O: 5×5 dynasty. Last 1 or 2 keeper spots coming down to Sean Manaea, Kyle Gibson, or Alex Wood. How would you order them?

Justin Mason: Manaea, Wood, Gibson

Chas: I see some yellow flags in Jose Ramirez’s profile: Chase rate and weak contact were up last year. He’s 30 and his batted ball data has never been great. Feel like as he loses bat speed his power might decline quickly. Why are people drafting him as a top-three pick?

Justin Mason: I am not worried at all by his profile. He was hurt last season and still put up a monster year. Don’t overthink it.

Buddy: Which SP are rising this spring for you?

Justin Mason: Kopech has been my biggest riser.

Justin Mason: Strider has risen for me too, but he is already been going higher than I would draft him.

Zach: Are you buying that Mike Moustakas might have some NL only value this year?

Justin Mason: Absolutely. The Rockies love old veterans lol

KevinT: How do you feel about a Jorge Polanco bounce back? His walk & K rates combined jump to 35%, when historically he has been 25%. The walks did alot of that heavy lifting, 8% to 14.5% but did it lead to too much passivity?

Justin Mason: Polanco needs health which is my main concern. There are also emerging options in Eduord Julien and Austin MArtin. I have stayed away from drafting Polanco.

Buddy: On a scale of 1 to 10 how much are you buying a Kelenic turnaround?

Justin Mason: 9

Altuve’s Thumb: 5×5 dynasty, Pablo Lopez or Tyler Anderson?

Justin Mason: In dynasty I lean Lopez, but it is really close and I end up drafting Anderson more because of the price difference.

T: In a league where saves and holds are valued equally, does Brooks Raley 레일리 see a measurable value jump with Diaz out?  More generally, when depth-altering injuries happen in spring, how do you capitalize on the changed circumstances without overestimating the impact simply because it’s a new headline

Justin Mason: I don’t know that he takes a big jump in value, but he does get a small one. I don’t over invest in these types of situations unless there is a clear replacement or the guy I think is next man up has big upside.

Drunk: Choose 2: McNeil, Paredes, Arraez

Justin Mason: Paredes and McNeil.

Brian: Dart throw reliever – J. Adam, AJ Puuk, A. Alzolay, M. Fulmer, D. Lamet, AJ Minter, D. Hudson?

Justin Mason: Michael Fulmer. I think he is the guy in Chicago

KevinT: Is Lars Nootbaar a better real life player than fantasy? His fantasy projections seem pretty bland. Not understanding the industry love (I know he walks alot but that doesnt help in most leagues)

Justin Mason: The projection aren’t capturing his upside. I don’t think he is a star, but he hasn’t actually gone up much in ADP. I am taking the plunge.

Steve: Who do you expect to have the better year for the White Sox, Lucas Giolito or Michael Kopech?

Justin Mason: That is really tough because I don’t know what to expect from Giolito. I will still go with him though because he should bounceback some.

can of corn: who leads each of these teams in saves for 2023: dodgers, cubs, marlins, dbacks, phillies, mets

Justin Mason: Dodgers- Hudson or someone not on the team

Justin Mason: Cubs – Fulmer

Justin Mason: Marlins – Floro

Justin Mason: D-Backs- Mantiply

Justin Mason: Phillies Dominguez

Justin Mason: Mets – Robertson or someone not on the team

swinganda: Does Isbel keep the job when Waters comes back?

Justin Mason: Yes

G: Sorting through late 3B options: With the Jordan Walker hype train slowing down a bit, who should be coming off the board first, him or Josh Jung?

Justin Mason: Walker, but I still love Jung

KevinT: This almost happened to me this week in a 12tm NFBC and I want your opinion. Drafted 12 (took bichette), got Lindor at 37 (I have him as a 2nd rounder), and then at 60/61 Corey Seager was sitting there. I have him at 4/5 value. Passed on Seager because he would have been locked at my UTL, but still wondering if i made the right decision to pass on the talent there

Justin Mason: Yeah, you can’t draft three that early in a league where you can’t trade.

Justin Mason: Probably should have passed on Lindor at 37. So early to get two SS

can of corn: dylan dodd or jared shuster for the #5 spot in the braves rotation?

Justin Mason: Shuster

swinganda: De La Cruz looks destined to go to AAA, but Sanchez doesn’t look that much better yet. Chance he takes the job?

Justin Mason: I think Sanchez starts with the strong side of the job.

cb: Justin, do you have any good cheap targets for batting average (with decent runs/rbi) at OF or CI?  I have a weird keeper list that is good on power and speed (Acuna, ONeil Cruz, Harris, Santander, Bregman, Albies, J. Polanco) but with no pitching, so I need to spend my auction cash on pitching and find some cheaper batting average guys (to help offset Cruz).  I was planning on targeting Ty France, but someone kept him at $22 (high inflation in the league and $300 budget), so I am thinking of going even cheaper looking for average.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Brendan Donovan, Lane Thomas, Michael Brantley

swinganda: Who makes a bigger impact this year- Raley in TB or Outman in LA?

Justin Mason: Outman

Bigboy: Hey Justin in a weekly H2H pts keeper league what scenario would you prefer – $17 Gunner for next 5 years or $16 Sandy A for next 2 years?

Justin Mason: Gunnar

Mike M: Who do you like better for this year and also dynasty:  Carrol or Chisholm?

Justin Mason: Carroll for both

KevinT: If you HAD to get a category off the waiver wire this year, rank your confidence in finding this stat with FAAB: Ks, Saves, Steals, Homers. To me, I feel steals are going to be most prevalent this season to grab off the wire. Easiest part

Justin Mason: Probably saves

Pedro: Hi Justin.  Just signed up for an AL only auction league with just 11 hitters and 8 pitchers.  I have always done the standard 23.  Would this affect player values?  Also, would it affect the standard hitting/pitching split (I usually spend 65/70% on hitting.  Thanks in advance.

Justin Mason: It should make pitchers much more valuable. I would probably do a 60/40 or a 50/50 split. Run it through the FG auction calculator and see what it spits out.

can of corn: any surprises for you from tout wars nl-only yesterday? trea turner at $37 seems cheap. hunter greene $18 seems pricey.

Justin Mason: I haven’t seen the prices yet, but 37 seems like a steal for Turner.

Donny: I took Soto at 3 in my OBP league.  How worried are you about his oblique?

Justin Mason: Not super worried. I would probably take him at three in an OBP still.

Guest: Super deep league question… do you think Clint Frazier makes the ranger’s opening day team? Roster resource has him making it as a bench player. He’s been kinda meh in terms of spring training stats, but I haven’t seen any news updates.

Justin Mason: I don’t think so.

Johnny5Alive: In a deep nl only dynasty league, $270 cap, 24 man roster roto. The best pitcher available is woodruff (next best Kershaw, then we are Senga and Montgomery). Most calculators put him between $25-30. In this situation, do you just ignore the calculators? I imagine he could go for $40 or more. But you need an ace. What do you do?

Justin Mason: I think in a keeper format, you have to account for inflation which should push him into that $40 range, so I have no problem with you spending that.

Art: 11 team AL only 5×5, $260 budget, 20% inflation. Please rank the following as keepers: Casas $8, Severino $11, Fairbanks $5, Jung $6, Garcia (Hou) $2, Gonzalez $6.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Garcia, Jung, Casas, Fairbanks, Severino, Gonzalez

Colton: Has Detmers moved at all for you since his reported velocity increase? It’s very enticing if that holds true through the season

Justin Mason: He has moved up a little for me this spring, but I am still lower than most on him in the industry.

Dru: thoughts on a breakout for the following SPs:  May, Greene or  Ryan… and why?….

Justin Mason: I am not touching May. I just don’t know what the innings will look like for him. I like Greene a lot, but not quite as much as the market does. Huge upside, but bad whip in a bad park on a team that doesn’t win games is a lot of red flags. I like Joe Ryan a ton this season. New pitch is a nice addition and it is a great park with a fantastic defense in the outfield.

Tendy: Do you have any favorite under-the-radar guys for points leagues that count holds in addition to saves? Lost Diaz in a league full of save vultures and feeling adrift 🙁

Justin Mason: Michael Fulmer has been a late target for me. Taylor Rogers as well.

LFGM: pick one of the following OF3 that will finish highest on player rater at end of April!      Renfroe, wil Myers, winker, ward or r. Greene?

Justin Mason: Ward

Trey: Is Brandon Lowe super underrated this year? Seems like he’s one year removed from being the best power option at 2B, likely going to have a great line up spot, and he should also benefit from the shift ban. It’s not clear to me at all why his ADP is so low, wondering if I’m missing something…

Justin Mason: The back issue is my only real concern with him. If he is healthy he is a huge bargain.

Joe: The Sirius broadcast talked a lot about your strategy in Tout about being the last person to win a bid. Was that strategy, was it the way things played out, and do you think you waited too long?

Justin Mason: It wasn’t necessarily a strategy, but I also knew it could happen. The prices early were insane and that meant I was going to get huge bargains in the middle. Sometimes the bargains are early. I stay true to my values.

Henry: Justin Steele has struggled a bit this spring after dealing with arm fatigue.  Possible Wesneski jumps him in the pecking order?

Justin Mason: I think he does.

Leeloo multipass: Where do you go to track spring velocity?

Justin Mason: Savant

Pete: What are the chances micheal harris have top 5 OF season

Justin Mason: I think there is an outside chance but I worry about his plate skills catching up with him.

Drunk: Any chance Aranda steals ABs from Paredes at 3B? That lineup could use another lefty

Justin Mason: Not unless Paredes struggles.

Mason: Are you buying Adalberto Mondesi at all, or too risky?

Justin Mason: At this point, I would gamble. He is going really cheaply.

Captain Awesome: How do you think the saves (there will be some, right?) will shake out in Oakland between May and Jiminez (anyone else)???

Justin Mason: I think it is shared but Jimenez leads the committee. The question should be: do we care?

Modric: There’s a lotta love for elite non closers this year-such as: Duran, Fairbanks and Munoz.    Any cheaper, under the radar guys that you like in a similar fashion to these 3?    Jason Adam’s perhaps ?

Justin Mason: Adam is a good one. Mantiply and Alzolay are others.

Trey: Fwiw – feel like Nico Hoerner also super underrated at 2B. He’s basically Amed Rosario but also about to get 2B eligibility at the start of the season, plus he’s hitting lead off for the Cubs…

Justin Mason: I could not agree any more with you. I love Hoerner this seaosn.

Pete: Am i crazy for thinking Austin Riley will out produce Devers?

Justin Mason: Not at all

KevinT: In an OC, if you get shut out of early pitching (grabbing your ace in the Yu Darvish range), would you pivot and hammer pitching the next few rounds iwth upside guys, or lock in closers, so you can focus on managing your pitching throughout the season?

Justin Mason: Yes, that is exactly how I would approach it. I have done that a fair amount this year where I wait on pitching and then go heavy for a few rounds.

Mark: What’s your take on Brendan Donovan’s spring power surge? Someone who could be a surprise contributor in deep mixed OBP leagues?

Justin Mason: Yup! Big target for me.

BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: Are there any relievers you find yourself rostering more than others?

Justin Mason: Not really. Relievers come and go. I do target the early closers, but the rest are interchangable for me

Captain Awesome: Do you believe in Corbin Carroll?

Justin Mason: Yes. I think he is a top 50 player now and maybe ends as a first round pick.

BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: I forgot to ask you last week…in light of the Oscars just being awarded, what are some of your favorite movies?

Justin Mason: Forest Gump is my favorite movie of all time. I love war movies like Saving Private Ryan and We Were Soldiers. My favorite movies this year were The Whale, Everything Everywhere All At Once and the Fablemans.

Justin Mason: I will watch anything outside of horror movie. I don’t get to watch a ton though because I am always working but I made a point of watching as many Oscar nominated ones as possible this year.

Buddy: What kind of end of season stat line are you envisioning for your boy TJ Friedl?

Justin Mason: 18/18

Kel: Thoughts on Bos OF Yoshida?

Justin Mason: I don’t know what to make of him, but fortunately he is cheap enough to gamble on. Maybe Verdugo esque?

KevinT: Has there been any research on attacking pitcher wins? Feels like that has been my most volatile category the last few years, and beyond the arbitrary “avoid pitchers on bad teams” I am not sure how to improve. There must be some research or schools of thought on the 10% of our roto standings category

Justin Mason: Rob Silver did a fantastic presentation on this at FPAZ and he showed that you should be attacking pitchers on the best teams and devaluing the ones on bad teams. Seems pretty obvious but sometimes we tend to overcomplicate it and want to focus on skills rather than roles.

DLP: Would you be worried about taking Juan Soto #1 overall in an OBP league with the news from yesterday?

Justin Mason: A little, but I would probably still do it.

seth: a 9 on Kelenic? What has made you buy in so heavily?

Justin Mason: He has always had a ton of talent and he spent this offseason reworking things and it is paying off right now in spring.

Justin Mason: Lets not forget that while he struggled in the Majors, he would go back to the minors and rake. I think a lot of it was mental to be honest.

TJ: Ugh, KEEPERS…I always choose poorly.  Can keep 1 pitcher and 1 batter.  I’m thinking Strider over Verlander and Seager over Buxton.  Agree?  Strider’s age and K upside and shift rule change for Seager seem to give them the edge (+ terrifying health risk)

Justin Mason: Strider and Seager are the right calls.

Guest: In a 5×5 NL only league, which player is more likely to return value:  $10 Daniel Bard or $5 Nolan Gorman?

Justin Mason: Bard

Colton: Isaac Paredes or Johnathan Aranda have more viability as a multi-position utility player in fantasy?

Justin Mason: They absolutely do. I drafted a lot of Aranda early but have drafted more Paredes as the draft season has gone on.

KevinT: In a world where stolen bases rise by 10-20% this year (which some research shows), arent guys like Yordan & Alonso 10% more valuable? I am still surprised Alonso has not moved up to a strong 1st this year

Justin Mason: I don’t think that it works that way necessarily. The more steals there are the more you have to have to compete. Alonso is still going really high this year in spite of the first base pool being extremely deep.

Captain Awesome: Anyone besides Robertson in the Mets bullpen have a chance for saves?  Ottavino maybe gets a few???

Justin Mason: I think Ottavino gets a small share. I projected 9 saves for him.

KevinT: Do you watch alot of stand up comedy? Who are your top 3 comics?

Justin Mason: I love stand up! I am big fan of Chapelle, Anthony Jeselnik and Bill Burr

Gary: Just wrapped a 10-team auction this weekend. H2H with OBP. Got run a bit up the middle with Arraez at 2B and Luis Urías/Ha Seong Kim at MI. Do Arraez and Steven Kwan carry enough juice to roster both in a 10-teamer?

Justin Mason: Kwan does. Arraez doesn’t

Kate: How do you think PT shakes out between Heim and Garver this year?  Looking at both as potential C2.  Obviously Garver has the health risk, but even if he’s healthy will he get enough DH time to make an impact?

Justin Mason: I think Garver will when he is healthy, but that likely won’t be for long.

Captain Awesome: Maybe Alex Reyes leads Dodgers in saves?  All in 2nd half …

Justin Mason: I think the leader isn’t on the team. It’ll probably be Scott Barlow or David Bednar

Kate: Assuming no more injuries, who do you think gets the first shot at the 5th spot in the rotation for the Mets?

Justin Mason: David PEterson

Kate: Who’s going to get the first crack at the 5th spot in the Dbacks rotation?

Justin Mason: I am going to lean Drey Jameson here.

Tiger style: Can Riley Greene pop this season?

Justin Mason: No

Pedro: Analysts seem split on whether Andrew Vaughn will take a step up this year.  Where do you come down?

Justin Mason: I think he will take a small step up, but not a massive one.

Erubiel Durazo: Which player(s) are you most worried about in terms run away hype leading to over-inflated expectations?

Justin Mason: Jordan Walker. Price is going up too fast.

Kate: In the last week I’ve seen two reports come out on Kyle Finnegan.  One that said he would open the year as the closer and the other that he might be used more as a HLR.  What do we make of this?

Justin Mason: I think he is the closer because they will try and flip him to a contender.

KevinT: Where does Profar now rank? Just inside the top 200 or does the fear of only half a season at Coors keep his cost low?

Justin Mason: I think I have him around the top 175

swinganda: Grossman looks great so far. Does he keep it up? Say 20/10?

Justin Mason: Maybe like 15/15.

Jefferson: Do you think Ryan McMahon gets 600 PAs? Roster roster resource has him listed in a platoon but he seems like one of the few rockies with the capability to be an every day fantasy relevant player

Justin Mason: I think he plays every day. They just paid him.

Carl: Keep Kyle Wright in the 25th round or Joe Ryan in the 6th?

Justin Mason: Wright in the 25th

Mike: Estevez the guy for LAA or think someone like Herget could grab it from him?

Justin Mason: I think Estevez begins with the job but it could be stolen pretty easily if he struggles.

Joe: Is there ever a point where moving away from your values is the smart play?

Justin Mason: Only when a category like saves is way over priced. You sometimes have to overpay there because league context demands it.

Justin Mason: Unfortunately I have to wrap up. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!