Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – March 10, 2025

Justin Mason: I will begin at the top of the hour as long as I have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Closing Time: A couple of late auction draft grabs – Uceta & Tinoco.  Do you find any value in both as potential closer candidates?  Thanks!

Justin Mason: I think Tinoco is the better grab late. I do think Uceta could be next man up but I don’t know how long we will be able to wait on him for that and you will likely have to drop him before you can cash in on that.

Adenolith: What, in your opinion, is the best projection system for playing time?

Justin Mason: FanGraphs depth charts, but personally I think doing your own playing time within whatever projection system you prefer is the way to go. There are just too many things that most projections miss with playing time and growth

Dog Days of Spring: Hi Justin, In 5×5 h2h, do I want Varsho or Nootbar and Soroka or D. Peterson? Thank you!

Justin Mason: Nootbaar and Soroka

Honkus Wagner: Do you think Spencer Torkelson carves out a role with the Tigers for the season? or do they look to trade him to Arizona or Seattle at some point

Justin Mason: I think that with the early injuries in Detroit, Torkelson has a role and if he can hit, then he should keep it.

Adenolith: Not a question but our slow draft has started and I’m pumped about my start. $300 budget, 8 teams, got Vlad Jr. -34, J-Ram – 51, Gunnar – 36, and Carroll – 41.

Justin Mason: Love that start in a league that shallow

Detroit Rock City: I wasn’t leaving the draft without Jackson Jobe which is sometimes a costly predicament.  Tell me he’ll prove worth the money spent on draft day???

Justin Mason: I think he will but you will have to hold until he is up.

Catcher: 13 team auction draft, NL only. How would you value Jacob Stallings? Think he gets moved mid-year?

Justin Mason: The Rockies haven’t been an active team at the deadline the last few years so I could see them holding him for the whole season. He should have a decent amount of value in an NL only because he will volume

TB Teddy: Thoughts on D.Rasmussen?  Added him late due to his dual eligibility (SP/RP).  Will his prove valuable from the get go??

Justin Mason: I think he will. He may not start much early on as the schedule could be a bit more spread out, but I think he is a very affordable SP and in leagues with that RP eligibility, he is a sneaky good add.

Ice Cream Helmet: 5×5 Roto is dropping down from 10 to 9 teams this year. Should my auction strategy shift be to pay up for more stars and accept more high-potential injury risk guys?

Justin Mason: Absolutely. When you have a shallower league, I tend to go more stars and scrubs because of the replacement value on the wire. Take more gambles and shoot for upside. Volume guys still have their value, but a lot of them can be grabbed off of the wire.

Bullpen: Middle relief value – drafted both Justin Slaten & Cade Smith.  I feel both could be sneaky save options possibly???  If not, ratios are good enough to prove rosterable in 10-team league?

Justin Mason: With Hendriks’ struggles in spring, I think Slaten is a really good option if they don’t want to go with Chapman. Smith has a lot of talent, but I just don’t see how he supplants Clase.

Idiotic Failson: Any ‘best shape of his life’ or ‘added a new pitch’ stories that you’re buying this year?

Justin Mason: I never really buy into the best shape of his life BS. Love to see guys adding new pitches as long as their are actually using them in spring. Buying into Cristopher Sanchez and Max Meyer for sure. A bit into Pfaadt, but all three of those guys are pitchers I liked before so it may just be confirmation bias.

Tony: Keep 2(5 OF spots): Carroll, Henderson, Alvarez?  Henderson’s injury worrying me

Justin Mason: Carroll and Henderson. I dropped Gunnar a little bit but this doesn’t sound serious

Jon: Hola Justin, keeper Q for you (10T roto 5×5 with OBP and an auction draft with a $260 budget): I’m keeping Ohtani (hitter) for $49 but have three more slots to fill. Would you keep any of Cal Raleigh ($6), Triston Casas ($14), Jared Jones ($6), Carlos Rodon ($8), Bailey Ober ($11), Ryan Walker ($6) or Emmanuel Clase ($14)? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Ober, Raleigh, Clase

Dave: My NL only roto league currently utilizes Wins, Saves, ERA, WHIP, Total K’s, and Innings Pitched as the pitching categories.  The league replaced K/9 and K/BB with Total K’s and IP two years ago.  We like total K’s as a category but IP is a cheap category that heavily favors starters and pretty much made middle relievers useless.  Do you have any recommendations to replace IP while keeping the other five?

Justin Mason: I honestly don’t because I no longer play in a lot of leagues like this.

Maris9: Am I crazy going in with Caminaro as my starting 3B in a 10-man points league? Or do I need a pretty decent backup.

Justin Mason: I don’t think so because he should be great and there is plenty on the wire in a 10-team league

Dr. Funk: League rule question…

In my keeper league a players eligibility for this season is based on games played there the previous year.  Under those rules Othani isn’t pitcher eligible.   The Othani owner is obviously complaining that he should be eligible immediately because he didn’t pitch last year due to injury and having to wait the 8 games for him to get eligibility is harsh.  I see both side on this.   Where do you stand?

Justin Mason: Rules are rules. He didn’t pitch last season so he needs to gain the eligibility in season. This is the same for a hitter like that misses time and loses an eligibility at a different position too.

Mochi: is Simpson going to be blocked by DeLuca for a bit until he basically proves he’s not good enough?

Justin Mason: pretty much. I think Deluca will hold him off until there is an injury

Guest: Collective amnesia about Jackson Holliday’s super prospectdom? How else was I able to snag him – unkept – at $6 in my keeper league?

Justin Mason: No idea but that is an amazing price to gamble on

Justin Mason: the fantasy community hates prospects that struggle in their first go around. I remember getting Trout off of waivers after his demotion in his first year and loving that I had him for three years at a cheap price in an AL Only

Kaline’s Ghost: 10 team mixed H2H pts league. Lineup’s are 3 OF, 1 DH, No CI/MI, 3 SP, 2RP. Keep up 5 forever. Options: Skubal, Burnes, Kirby, JRod, Churio, Altuve, Devers, Yainer Diaz, Merrill. Skubal/Burnes/Devers/Altuve and . . .? Usually I’ll punt C and OF, and go heavy SP, but with Kirby injury now thinking JRod or Churio with those other 4. A little help?

Justin Mason: Skubal, Chourio, JRod, Merrill, Burnes for me.

Justin Mason: I know that fills up your OF, but those are all studs

E: 14 team Dynasty question. I’m a yearly contender, not in a rebuild, just for context. Last keeper: Xander Bogaerts or Drew Rasmussen? I have mookie and volpe in the infield and my rotation as of now is crochet, burnes, king, mcclanahan, strider, (bieber and eury perez hoping for a second half). Is the rotation depth more important than a solid accumulator?

Justin Mason: Yeah, I am going Rasmussen here. That rotation has some risk and I want the depth

Insert Witty Name Here: Has any news been reported as why Elly stopped his torrid SB at the end of last year?

Justin Mason: I haven’t seen anything but that is something I will dig into because I hadn’t really noticed it until you pointed it out.

Guest: 16 team keep-8 with max 5 yr ownership. Prices listed after player names represent remaining price/yrs of ownership with keeper inflation rules baked in. (studs go for $55-$70ish for reference) Help me pick 8 please(!) from the following:

• $4 Colt Keith ($6 / $12)
• $3 Elly ($5 / $10)
• $4 Edman ($6 / $12 / $12)
• $12 Santander
• $66 Ohtani
• $22 Glasnow
• $5 Taj ($10)
• $3 Felix Bautista ($5 / $10 / $10)
• $5 Jeff Hoffman ($8 / $16 / $16)
• $16 Bibee ($24 / $48 / $48)
• $12 T.Ward ($18 / $36 / $36)
• $15 Vientos ($30)
• $8 Cristopher Sanchez ($12 / $24)
• $1 Vaughn Grissom ($2 / $4)

Justin Mason: Elly, Ohtani, Sanchez, Keith, Edman, Bibee, Vientos, Buatista

Brett: Thoughts on Glasnow and Bibee this season plz/thx!

Justin Mason: Really love Bibee. He still feels a little underated in the market but he is a really safe SP which I love. Glasnow scares me a ton with his injury history. I would roster him in a shallow format, but anything 12 teams or deeper and I am staying away

Jimmy: Rays bats seem primed this yr playing home games at Yankees Spring Training facility. Is this likely for all bats, or just the ones that bat lefty?

Justin Mason: I think it will help all their bats but their lefties a lot more. Just getting out of the trop will be huge for the Rays.

Jimmy: I have read that Sacremento is among the more pitcher-friendly parks in the PCL. PCL though AmIRight?! How do you think it will affect the A’s bats? A’s pitchers?

Justin Mason: It is one of the more pitcher friendly ones in the PCL but compared to Oakland, it will be a massive help to their hitters. I am targeting Langeliers, Butler, Soderstrom, Rooker, and Gelof depending on their prices in my drafts. I am stay away from all A’s pitchers except Springs.

Insert Witty Name Here: two Phillies questions: is Schwarber more valuable at the 4 hole and would you expect Trea to steal a substantial amount more if he leads off?

Justin Mason: Yes and yes. I love Schwarber and those RBIs will be amazing hitting lower in the lineup. Trea should bounceback with some health and I think he is going too low in drafts right now.

Matt W.: Wiped out watching 12 hours of Podapallooza. How much was raised.

Justin Mason: I am wiped out too lol. $7800 raised during podapallooza and from TGFBI participants! You can still donate too at https://donorbox.org/tgfbi-2025 and be eligible to win prizes!

Justin Mason: Also check out my youtube to watch the live streams and I will be releasing them in podcast form on the Friends with Fantasy Benefits Baseball Podcast feed today and tomorrow

Liz: No matter how much I make tweaks, I can never get the Auction Calculator to line up with the historical costs in my keeper…namely at the top end where the stars are usually $10-$20 more than the Calc numbers that get spit out. Should I just manually add inflation or should I take those numbers at their value and avoid paying the extra $10-$20 for a star and instead focus on the 2nd/3rd tier of player ($20-$40)? Basically what % overpay is acceptable if you don’t want to lose out on a star?

Justin Mason: So personally I like Tanner Bell’s Smart Fantasy Baseball software the best for stuff like this. You can adjust the inflation rate, enter the keepers and adjust category prices.

However, in these scenarios, I would be fine adjusting because you have to play in the pool that your league plays in. Just make sure what ever you add to some players, you need to take away from others at the bottom of the pool

chet: Giants and dodgers both have some interesting names for their 5th starter role (harrison/birdsong/roupp, Gosolin/May/Knack). Any you’re interested in drafting?

Justin Mason: I am interested in Gonsolin and May. I don’t know what their workloads will look like but getting cheap parts of the Dodgers team is always a good bet in fantasy. I would love Birdsong if I really thought he was making the team, but I don’t right now.

Jammy: What line are you expecting from Vientos this yr? Any playing time risk or is he locked in?

Justin Mason: I think there is some risk because of his swing and miss and defense. However, he has the upside for 40 bombs and I think he will have a decently long leash to start the season. I am a cautious buyer.

Liz: I can keep Felix Bautista and/or Jeff Hoffman at low prices. 15 teamer so SV are a knife fight. Am I keeping both or is Hoffman’s shoulder too dicey?

Justin Mason: I would keep both if the price is good, but Hoffman does scare me a lot.

Knucklebear: What are your thoughts on Zebby Matthews?  1: Any news on his injury?  2: how does he look for this year 3: What’s his future ceiling 4: Do you agree that he has an 80 grade name?

Justin Mason: For sure he has an 80 Grade name. If he can figure out the command, he could be an SP2 type of guy. Looks good in spring, but I just don’t think he is going to break camp with the team. Someone I am putting on my watch list for sure.

Free tayk: You think Jordan walker carries any trade value in 15t roto dynasty? What type of return should I be looking for (sp’s)?

Justin Mason: I don’t think now is the time to trade him to be honest. This is going to be the low end of his value. I would try and hold and see if you can recoup some value on him first because I don’t think you get enough back in return other than like a mid rotation starter.

Rookie Crisp: Hey Justin, what are your thoughts on Ben Rice dynasty 5×5 with OPS? Passed up a dynasty trade for Brady House but I’m not sure if the Yankees will give Rice enough runway to succeed. His minor league numbers and statcast data is great

Justin Mason: I really think he needs a trade. Unless someone (or two guys) get hurt, I just don’t see him getting enough plate appearances to matter. I do think he has talent and I would be willing to hold him in dynasty, but the Yankees are a bad team for a guy like this.

Jorge: I am debating between Edman ($4) and Bibee ($16) in a 15 team 5×5 roto. Who ya keeping?

Justin Mason: Bibee for me but that is a great price on Edman

JarJar: I can keep Taj for $5 and $10 this yr and next. $250 budget standard 5×5 roto with a 400 player universe. I am worried about Rays arms in that stadium. I have to keep Taj though at that price, right?

Justin Mason: Depends on the depth of your league, but I would probably keep him at that

2nd season hope: I want to believe time served last year for Junior Caminero will prove valuable for his 2nd season.  I see projections fairly average from most.  Do you feel ok for slotting him at 3B in 10- team league?

Justin Mason: I do because the upside is massive if he can elevate.

PED Xing: Marte sent down. Is he a buy low candidate in dynasty or is he cooked

Justin Mason: cooked

Minor League Action: 3 minor league draftees for me – C.Horton, K.Alcantara, & C.Moore.  The benefit is I can sit on these guys all season & keep going into 2026.  Possible that all 3 break through in 2026??

Justin Mason: Possible but I think that Moore is the most likely.

comish4lif: For the rules question asked. If you are playing in a 2 Ohtanis League, then clearly he should be draftable/auctionable as a pitcher. Does that league also not permit other pitchers who missed a year with injuries be available?

In a 12 team, NL Only, at what price would you pay for the pitching Ohtani? I think he may have a rough road in providing any value. No way to have real rehab starts, he still need to hit as much as possible…

Justin Mason: So in this scenario, Pitcher Ohtani only has pitcher eligibility. When a player misses a whole season they should retain whatever position they played at the most in the last season they played in. So for instance McLain missed all of last year and retains second base but not shortstop. I would not be drafting him as a pitcher only this year. I just don’t trust guys coming off of TJ in their first season back

Joe14: Vientos or Caminero around pick 50 ? 12T Roto

Justin Mason: CAminero

The Law Firm of Sawyer, Gibson and Long: Any thoughts on this guy? Nick Pollack loves him as a stash (as do I, especially in deep leagues).

Justin Mason: I think he is interesting, but there are a lot of guys in that org that are now ahead of him and it’s been a while since he was on the mound, so not a target for me

Guest: I’m really high on Lawrence Butler but doesn’t $95m/yr seem like a little bit of an overpay?

Justin Mason: LMAO! Maybe Edmond can tell you lol.

Point awarded

Also Injured: I feel like I’m nuts for hating Hunter Greene and Shane McClanahan this year. The former is in Coors East and had pretty insane luck numbers last year (.230 BABIP and 80+ LOB%) and the latter is pitching in The Boss and had low BABIPs and high LOB% in both his good years, not to mention the injury return. What am I missing?

Justin Mason: I am with you on both to be honest. I am somewhat intrigued by Greene, but Cincy scares me a lot and like I said above, I do not draft guys coming off of TJ, so I am out on McClanahan this year

Daro: Hype hopes with Bubic? Kirby will probably start in the IL and im looking for a replacement. H2H league 40ip minimum per matchup.

Justin Mason: In a deep league I would take the gamble. He looks good in spring and this is a good park to pitch in on a team getting better

Devers: On a scale of 1 – the Simpsons’ “aaaaand the season’s over!” meme how worried should I be about draftin Devers as my top bat? (12 team AL only)

Justin Mason: like a 6?

Justin Mason: point awarded

Adam: What will the Phillies outfield platoon look like this season? Castellanos is locked in at RF, but what about LF and CF?

Justin Mason: I think Marsh will likely platoon and Kepler plays most of the time with the occasional sits versus lefties.

Dog Days of Spring: at CI in a deep league, do you like O’Hearn, Santana, Raley or France? Thanks Justin.

Justin Mason: Santana.

oh no, White Sox!: Left an AL only 5×5 roto auction with a dirt cheap outfield. Benitendi / Tauchman / Dairon Blanco / Kyle Isbel / Richard Palacios for a combined $28 (out of $260). Not ideal but the focus was cheap volume (Beni and Tauchman) and cheap speed (the rest). Think I did ok for those two aims?

Justin Mason: I think you did great here. It is perfectly boring for a cheap price which is what I want in Only leagues. Volume wins championships in deeper leagues.

Festa: My Last keeper for AL only (12 team, 5×5 with s+hd, $260) was a $6 David Festa. Two reasons I kept him: 1.) I heard you gushing about him on a podcast leading up to deadline. 2. The last tall Twins SP who wasn’t yet in the rotation I dropped was Baily Ober (who I dropped to keep Bradish the year he got hurt). Will he wind up filling the void left in my heart and soul that Ober left?

Justin Mason: I think he will. Underlying skills in spring are great. I don’t know if he wins a spot out of spring, but he should. If he doesn’t he will be replacing Paddock or SWR pretty quickly.

TBone: Deciding on last keeper of a keep forever (13 team rotis)…Ramos, Toglia Burelson, Suarez…Need to keep one of them…Of is bigger need so have marked Ramos, but wondering about Toglia…no cost etc

Justin Mason: It is close, but I think I lean Ramos here just because Coors plays a bit cold early on and Toglia might be a slow starter there

JW: First year in any Ottoneu league for me (12-team, FG points). How do you prioritze lineup construction in-season? For example, I have 8 OF: Soto, JRod, Riley Greene, Chourio, James Wood, Lawrence Butler, Garrett Mitchell, and Austin Hays – should I basically just mix and match them in-season based on off days and matchups? Or are some guys like Soto and Jrod basically “must plays” based on their floor

Justin Mason: The studs are must plays and then you mix and match the rest

Guest: Would you say that Paul has some swing and miss in his fantasy game?

Justin Mason: For sure. When you are that tall, you are gonna miss things at the plate. Though we all do. I struggle with outside stuff because of my short arms. Just have to make due with what we have.

Justin Mason: Point awarded

Mochi: is Tyler Locklear just food 4 less Spencer Torkelson?

Justin Mason: Point awarded

Justin Mason: It is crazy to me that considering the Mariners didn’t sign anyone that they still will likely start him in AAA. Dude can hit and I would love to see him get a shot in Seattle

JW: Does Geraldo Perdomo have any sneaky upside in a 12-team FG points league? The DBacks extension makes me think they see something there

Justin Mason: I think he does because he will play a lot. I don’t know if there is a massive upside. He is mostly an accumulator

JW: Is Erik Miller a sneaky candidate to get a ton of appearances as only projected LHP for SF?

Justin Mason: In holds leagues for sure he should be a target. I think he is going to get a lot of early work

E: Think Jackson Holiday bounces back this year and lives up to the #1 prospect hype with the starting 2B job and no worries about moving up and down?

Justin Mason: He is still very young so I don’t project that for him, but I do think that he holds the job for at least the first half if not the whole year

E: Am I crazy for thinking that Alcantara will be a top 20 arm this year?

Justin Mason: You aren’t alone, but I am not with you. I worry about a guy on the worst team in baseball (or at least close to it,) who relies upon command and control coming off of TJ when pitchers struggle with command and control returning from the surgery.

What am I missing?: I really don’t understand the Baz in the top 200. There is a glutony of mediocre pitching after that pick but people seem to see upside. I don’t see any data since 2021! that suggests large upside. The stuff was generously mediocre last season and the innings just don’t seem to be there. Steel man this case for me because I have him as a hard fade and chalk the draft position up to stale prospect hype.

Justin Mason: I think there is massive upside in Baz, but there are workload concerns and park concerns moving to a spring training facility for the year. I think he is a decent gamble at the price, but there is a ton of downside there too

Justin Mason: Only five minutes left and a lot of questions still, so let’s speed round this

Texas: Who leads the pack for saves in Texas?

Justin Mason: David Robertson once he signs

Evan Carter: Do we believe is this ?

Justin Mason: Nope

More Evan Carter: AL ONLY KEEPER 12×5:  please rank (Carter $8, Kjerstad $2, McCormick $3)

Justin Mason: Carter, McCormick, Kjerstad

Izzy: Considering how hard it is to get a front office job, how can some front offices be so bad? Is it just a reflection of bad ownership not knowing who to hire?

Justin Mason: Yes and some luck involved. Need to get an owner who knows who to go for and then the faith to stick with them

Guest: NL only 7 team $260 auction.
6×6 (obp and slg in place of avg)
Can keep 1 batter per year and my options are:
Elly DC $36
Jackson Merrill OR James Wood $10 (option to keep 2026 $15 before next year’s draft). Thanks for your help

Justin Mason: Elly for me. Merrill over Wood tho if that is the question for you

Nick: Just wanted to say that the content you Paul, Jason, and newbie Joe has been top notch this pre-season

Justin Mason: Thank you!

JW: Picking 10th in a 12 tm 5×5 standard. How do you rank Tatis / Betts / J-Rod / Carrol / Lindor? Please and Thank You

Justin Mason: Lindor, Carroll, Betts, Tatis, JRod

MJ Sea Line: My league does a 3 rd rookie draft for all eligible. I always dig for immediate impacts. Any notables?

Justin Mason: I always lean towards the highest upside from a guy but it really depends on what my window to win is. If I am looking to be competitive now, I will skew towards guys that are going to be up faster

Patrick O’Hara: What’s the highest you’d take Jackson jobe

Justin Mason: like pick 225?

Go Cubs: expectations for Matt Shaw? concerned about the oblique injury?

Justin Mason: I have high expectations for Shaw. Think he can be a 15/15 or 20/20 guy and I am not overly worried about the oblique

Guest: Forever Keeper League, all keepers slotted in first 6 Rounds – 7×7 Roto + TB and OBP are additional categories offensively. Offered Lindor and Harper for Tucker and Olson….should I do it?

Justin Mason: I want the Harper side

deGone: 10 team H2H OBP and QS league. I am very deep in pitching with my top starters being Crochet, deGrom and McClanahan. I know each of those guys have their own question marks, but I do have solid depth behind them (Ober, Steele, and Jared Jones). Which of my top three would you be comfortable dangling in trade offers to others, and what tier of value should I be aiming for? Would like to focus on a CI or OF.

Justin Mason: McClanahan or deGrom would be the ones I dangle. Who ever gets you more back

Idiotic Failson: I feel like with the number of pitching injuries, the low number of innings thrown by starters, and the general volatility of starting in general there is less value in paying for all but the most elite starters (12 team, 40 man roster, auction points), and it’s a better use of my money to buy good hitters. I can usually find value on waivers mid year (i.e. – I picked up Schwellenbach just as he was breaking out for like $8). Am I missing something?

Justin Mason: I tend to lean heavier hitting in these formats. Pitching comes into the league and I am more likely to stream my way to victory anyhow

RAGBRAI: Better last two keepers NL 5×5 $4 Weathers, $2 Kerkering, $1 Faucher?

Justin Mason: Weathers

Guest: If snoop dogg were in a draft, how high would he go?

Justin Mason: Third rounder for me

Justin Mason: point awarded

chet: need a catcher with alvarez hurt. think Bart will get enough ABS? any names you’re considering outside the top 15-20 for this year? maybe Baldwin?

Justin Mason: Really like Baldwin for sure. Big Hunter Goodman guy as well. Just updated my catcher ranks on the site this morning.

Kalines Ghost: Re Skubal, Burnes,JRod, Churio, Merrill. “Those guys are studs” is sort of the point. This guy’s plus Teoscar was my OF only keeping JRod last year. Loading up on OF is leaving me with McClain, Junior C, Naylor, types manning the INF, which feels way light in a 10 teamer. You just feeling “pts are pts so take the best overall hitters regardless of position and figure the rest out” in that shallow a format?

Justin Mason: exaclty

Mochi: Keibert Ruiz or Danny Jansen this year?

Justin Mason: Jansen at his price.

Justin Mason: That is all the time I have today. please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!