Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – June 10th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Guest: At what point in the season does one actually consider dropping Austin Riley? There has to be a moment when you have to cut our losses, no?

Justin Mason: If the underlying numbers weren’t pretty similar to last season, I would be more worried. I think he will turn it around this summer

JG: Any preference between Horwritz , Locklear , Gelof & Daniel Schennmann ? 12T Roto

Justin Mason: I think I would lean Locklear here. I feel like his playing time is better than Horwitz

Mike: Are you stashing the Martian now?  Should you if you have Judge and/or Stanton, the two most likely OFs to get injured.

Justin Mason: Only if I have IL spots I can put him on.

Pierre: Hi Justin, and thank you for all you do. Should I go with Albert Suarez or Mitchell Parker as a streamer this week? This is for a points league.

Justin Mason: Parker. He has two starts versus very good matchups

Mike: Are you continuing to stash Wood? With the injury, is there too much risk the Nats will wait to Aug. to preserve rookie status for next year?

Justin Mason: Nah, they have no reason to bring him up  before then.

Matt: I feel like every time I start Berrios I am massively disappointed (Ottoneu). Is it time to start streaming him? You starting him vs MIL?

Justin Mason: I would not start him versus MIL outside of deeper formats.

Mike: Max Meyer worth the stash, particularly over a quality RP?  His numbers after being sent down are not great, even if his early season numbers in the majors were exceptional.

Justin Mason: Probably have better stashes available to be honest

JW: Thanks for all the advice every week. Injuries are piling up and Its getting harder to be patient with some struggling draft picks. Would you drop any of Nico Hoerner, Josh Lowe, Glyber Torres or Jackson Chourio for the folowing: David Hamilton, Alec Burleson, Jesse Winker, J. Canelario? Or am I better off holding and hoping.

Justin Mason: I would drop Torres for Hamilton

seth: 16 team 5×5 (OBP instead of AVG and S+H instead of S), traded Luis Gil (keepable for 2 cheap years) + Tyler Black (2 years) for Mookie + Fairbanks + Seth Lugo (all unkeepable). win now move (currently in 1st), but worried i sent away too much keeper value. Will I regret this one?

Justin Mason: No, I don’t think you will

Tim: 14t H2H dynasty 7×7 (standard 5, BB, TB)….who do you prefer at 1B for ROS and beyond, Nathaniel Lowe or Andrew Vaughn, and same question for OF, Brandon Marsh or Wilyer Abreu? Thanks in advance!

Justin Mason: Lowe and Abreu

KC Pain: Just as we all expected on draft day, Julio Rodriguez is the rich man’s Brenton Doyle. Joking aside, and Doyle has done a nice job improving his offense to go with his Gold Glove defense, what is wrong with JRod!?!

Justin Mason: Honestly, I don’t there is much wrong with J-Rod. The HR/FB rate is unlucky right now, but other than that, I think we are just seeing the lower part of his outcome range. I think he will be fine

Troy: Would you start Ragans (at LAD) over a 2-start Eflin or a 2-start Megill?

Justin Mason: I would start him over Megill

Matt: 12-team dynasty, OBP/TB/R/RBI/SB. I’m in dead last (damn near shooting the moon!), trying to sell. My offer is Freeman + Happ + Hoerner for Coby Mayo and a second round minor league draft pick. Freeman is a rental, and since they double next year, Happ/Nico basically are as well. We’re going back and forth – am I asking too much?

Justin Mason: I don’t think you are asking too much at all. If anything, you may be asking too little

KC Pain: Ozuna continues to produce unlike everyone else on the Braves.  Any red flags? Would you sell high on Ozuna in a dynasty or is he not gonna get enough value for his production?

Justin Mason: His zone contact has a major red flag being under 80% so the average will dip at some point. I would definitely sell in dynasty if I wasn’t competing because he is a 33 year old DH, but if I was, I would probably hold tight.

Troy: Need to start 2/3…. T Ward, Yandy Diaz, and A Burleson.  Who is the sit?

Justin Mason: Diaz

JW: Stash Christian Scott or Max Meyer? Or drop Jon Gray or Pfaadt and roster both?

Justin Mason: Stash Scott. Drop Gray

Kelder: Say you were in a 30 team dynasty.  Would you trade for Nico Howrner if he cost a top 100 prospect and a MILb pick?  Keep in mind the Yankees are in last

Justin Mason: I would do this if my competitive window was in the next season or two, but if not, I probably pass on this

Adenolith: Standard h2h. Great pitching but I’m in last place in HRs and RBIs after weathering injuries and slow starts to Riley, Suzuki, Robert, Alonso, Santander, Jung. Are you holding those guys for improved luck/health or does trading power for a big lead in Steals/Average/Runs make sense?

Justin Mason: I am holding. It is too early to punt a category like that

Jon: I’m playing for next year and am looking for some breakout relievers that could be valuable at this time next year (particularly if they find themselves closing). I know this is pretty much the hardest position to predict, but are there some names I should be eyeing/adding? 12-team league, SV+HLD, top 50-60 RPs are owned.

Justin Mason: Justin Martinez, Reynaldo Yean, Alek Jacob, Chris Roycroft, Jarlin Susana, Wandiasson Charles, Colby White. Matt Canterino are all names I would at least put on my watch list.

Yimi Garcia: Where to you project me rest of season? I’m a top ___ closer.

Justin Mason: 25

KC Pain: I have Fry and Mayo.  Trying to trade for Burger. Any other food last names to add to roster?

Justin Mason: loooooool

Justin Mason: Phil Coke isn’t playing anymore lol

Backdoor Slider: Considering offer in keeper for Acuna.  Concerned about him running ever again?  Trying to decide his value.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Once healthy, he should be the guy he has always been

Bob: Hey there, would you drop Rafaela for either Josh Bell or Brandon Lowe for MI spot? H2H Cat Redraft league Thanks.

Justin Mason: For lowe, yes

Troy: Drop Waldrep for Baz?

Justin Mason: nah

Tim: Is Drew Thorpe good enough to grab now to see how it plays out, or continue to hold on the bigger-armed Iriarte? Is a changeup specialist in hand better than a flamethrower in the bush?

Justin Mason: Go with Thorpe

Why not Zoidberg?: H2h league. Are you holding guys like Skenes and Jones or looking to trade for fear of a late season (fantasy playoff) shutdown by the Pirates?

Justin Mason: I would hold if I am in a fight for the playoffs, but in a league where I know I am going to be in the playoffs, I might try and move them before the shutdowns happen because I think they will

Dave in slc: Need to replace weather’s in nl only. Would you go mazur or Tobias Myers or slade look to be my 3 best options. Or go reliever, or just wait a week or two?

Justin Mason: Myers

Baseball Baron: This Justin.  12-team NL keeper 5×5.  260 budget, can keep Acuna @25 for next year.  Leaning let go.  Keep or let go?

Justin Mason: Keep

OF Help: Looing to upgrade OF in an OBP league. Drop Soler and/or Benson for:  McCarthy, Siri, Bleday, or Suwinski?

Justin Mason: Soler for Suwinski

Guest: whenever Nolan Jones finally does return, how much rope does he get from you

Justin Mason: I think he gets a decent amount rope. I know the results weren’t great, but the underlying skills were

Guest: is Ian Happ back

Justin Mason: looks like it.

High in Rockies: Rodgers meh.  Amador was swinging very well at call-ups (finally).  What chance Amador hits well enough to Wally Pipp Rodgers?

Justin Mason: I think there is a decent chance of it considering his high contact profile.

Guest: Any chance MLB decides to switch the ball over the AS break? Offense could return to normal in the second half!

Justin Mason: You never really know with MLB. So yeah, there is a chance they screw with things again

Matt: In Ottoneu, I need OF (Acuna/Marsh on the IL). I have too much MI (Turang, JP Crawford, India, Correa, Maikel Garcia). I can’t seem to find a trade partner. Am I rightful to be hesitant to drop any of that MI? There isn’t much available on the waiver wire and I’m almost certain they’d be a big downgrade

Justin Mason: Sometimes that is what you have to do. Maybe you lose a little value overall, but it wasn’t value you were using if you can’t get them into your lineup regularly.

The Kid: Currently have Jake Meyers and Jo Adell (12t H2H Points league). Are any of these guys worth cutting one of Meyers/Adell for- Candelario, Vientos, Bleday, Nick Gonzales, Brandon Lowe?

Justin Mason: I don’t think so

Ryan: What are your thoughts on Drew Thorpe? Could he work his way into your top 60 SP this year or is that too optimistic?

Justin Mason: This year might be a little optimistic, but I think it is in the range of outcomes.

hot seat: Is it time to consider dropping Nico Hoerner?

Justin Mason: In a shallow league, I can understand it with the injury

Matt: Is Pablo Lopez going to turn it around in time to gain some trade value?

Justin Mason: Yeah, he should be fine. Good matchups this week

Guest: As a Corbin Carroll owner, I’d kill for him to be as bad as JRod.

Justin Mason: SAME

William: What are your thoughts on Chip Morton…should we be stashing him as soon as possible???

Justin Mason: I honestly don’t know enough about him

Guest: Start Joey Ortiz tonight for two step?

Justin Mason: yes

Dynasty Trade: Who wins this in a long term 30 team league. Acuna for Soto (we lose FA at end of year), Doyle, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Yanquiel Fernandez and top 10 fypd pick?

Justin Mason: Acuna side depending on how long you can keep him

Guest: Joey estes*

Justin Mason: Figured that is who you meant. Yes

Mike: How do you balance competitive window v. long term? Struggling to decide if I should move a top prospect like Thorpe for a 1 year rental

Justin Mason: I always throw long term out the window if I am trying to compete. I think the worst mistake you can make is fence sitting in dynasty. Flags fly forever. That doesn’t mean you give away prospects or the future for nothing, but I want to win now because the future isn’t guaranteed.

Guest: if my team didn’t need the (projected) OBP, Yandy would have been out on his butt a while ago. should he probably be anyway?

Justin Mason: Probably

Guest: Abraham Toro have any upside at all? I mean, at least he’s playing everyday, right?

Justin Mason: Deep league accumulator

Keith: Where would Jared Jones rank in dynasty SP rankings for you?

Justin Mason: top 25

Guest: if you had a crystal ball that said Tyler O’Neill would play 40 games RoS… a) would you believe it and b) would you drop him (if you had a free IL spot for about half the time he missed)

Justin Mason: yes but I would keep him because I am a sucker

Paul: Can you rank these 5: Hunter Greene, Bryce Miller, Tanner Bibee, Nick Lodolo, Jared Jones?

Justin Mason: Jones, Lodolo, Miller, Greene, Bibee

Jon: Would you trade an expensive Fairbanks for cheap Henry Davis in a keeper/dynasty? I’m playing for next year.

Justin Mason: sure

Colton: Odds that the Rockies option Amador when Rodgers is back? Feels like a very Rockies thing to do with your top prospect and I have to decide on whether to promote him or release him in my dynasty league by Sunday

Justin Mason: 50%. The rockies could definitely Rockie

Chris: 12 tm obp league totally not in it this yr, I traded $50 cole and $12 Tork for $3 Casas and 1$ Lamont Wade jr? I do ok?

Justin Mason: yeah, I think you did ok, but I might have asked for a better second piece

Paul H.: Seth Lugo has been great but are you taking the two start in weekly leagues against the Yankees / Dodgers. My biggest concern is he is a fly ball pitcher and Judge is on another level right now.

Justin Mason: I am starting and holding my breath in a lot of leagues to be honest

KC Pain: If you were desperate for a 3B in a 18 team dynasty league and holding down the fort shuffling Kim to 3B with Norby/Amador at 2B (at the moment) who would you target of these guys available on trade block; Muncy, Arenado, and Burger?

Justin Mason: I would target Arenado out of that grop. Burger next.

Help: Any reason to hold Bello vs just streaming that spot going forward?

Justin Mason: stream

Mike: Why do you prefer Christian Scott over Max Meyer?

Justin Mason: Meyer is coming off of a long injury recovery. I think his innings will be more limited

Colton: Friendly reminder that the White Sox could’ve had Jake McCarthy and inexplicably wanted Dominic Fletcher instead lol

Justin Mason: Man, the White Sox just keep taking Ls

KC Pain: What happened to 1B? It felt like the spot to park a “his bat is so good but his glove stinks” type player in years past.  Now it feels like half the 1B in league struggle with the bat part too.

Justin Mason: Positions ebb and flow from being strong to being weak. This is natural progression.

Art: Hey Justin! Do you know if there’s been any talk of an innings limit for Skubal? He’s on pace for nearly 200 innings which is considerably more than he’s thrown the past couple of seasons: 95 last year, 117 the year prior.

Justin Mason: I haven’t heard anything and the Tigers are in a race, so I think they will stick with him as long as the are competing.

Cris: Hi. Which 2 of 3 would you go with Lugo 2x w tough matchups, Woo 2x, Morton 1x. Thanks

Justin Mason: Woo

Justin Mason: and Lugo

Guest: Langord signs of life?

Justin Mason: Underlying numbers are fine. I think he will be too. I just traded $210 of FAAB for him in Tout Wars

KC Pain: Is Gausman trustworthy again?  Do you think he gets moved this season?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he gets moved unless the B lue Jays decide to completely tear it down.

Jon: Thoughts on Casas and Evan Carter when they return from injury? How do you see them performing ROS? Have they lost any long-term value?

Justin Mason: I think Casas goes back to being the guy he has always been. Carter has shown he can’t hit lefties, but can mash righties. I think he has lost some value long term because of it.

Joe: We know Tanner Houck isn’t THIS good, but is he really, really good?  Is he becoming a top 15-20 keeper pitcher, or is he a sell high arm?

Justin Mason: I think he may be a top 25 guy. He has no major red flags

Mike: Returning to the Martian, he is going to come off of the IL shortly and be optioned.  I take it in a league without NA spots you would not hold beyond the IL period?

Justin Mason: If that happens, I probably drop unfortunately unless I have a ton of bench spots.

Tooth Decay: Getting hit hard by injuries. Need some hitting help in 5×5. Have O’Neill, Profar, Varsho, Freidl, and JD in the OF with Ortiz in a UTIL/Bench spot and Winn at SS. Would you drop any of them for Langford, Correa, Estrada or Cowser?

Justin Mason: I could drop Varsho for Langford, but you don’t have to.

Acadia: H2H Categories, start Lodolo vs. CLE or Waldron @ NYM this week?

Justin Mason: Lodolo

Two Start Ranks: How would you rank these two start SPs this week: Paddack, Megill, Soriano. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Megill, Paddack, Soriano

Keith: Is there any hope for Detmers?

Justin Mason: There is always hope but I am not holding my breath.

JG: Reese Olson still a hold in a 12T Deep Roto ?

Justin Mason: I think he is

Guest: Is Elly for O’Neil Cruz and Spencer Steer fair value ?

Justin Mason: I think you should get more.

KCBBq: Do you think MJ Melendez can right the ship this season? Is he worth $2 next season in a 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H league ($260 team salary).

Justin Mason: In an AL only, I would hold

Why not Zoidberg?: Do you see Hader returning to be a top 5 closer this year?

Justin Mason: Probably not top five

Troy: Any guess on Gil’s inning cap?  125 range?

Justin Mason: I think he continues to pitch because the Yankees need him to continue to be great.

Re: Dynasty Trade: Does moving Acuna in that deal make more sense if my window is this year and next year?

Justin Mason: Yes, but don’t give him away

KC Pain: Would you move Ozuna/Amador/Yainer Diaz/1st+2nd FYPD for Vlad in a 18 team 6×6 dynasty?

Justin Mason: I think that is too much

B’Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs: Have a lineup spot to stash an injured ace (10 tm h2h)… Robbie Ray is hitting 96mph with his fastball, do I add him, or Kershaw? Or Springs?

Also, dump Andres Gimenez for Gorman?

Justin Mason: Kershaw and sure

Guest: in 12T are you holding Candelario and/or Friedl or are they home streamers?

Justin Mason: I think they both holds. Candy has actually been better on the road

Guest: is it just me or is MI >>>>>> CI right now

Justin Mason: In some formats for sure

AL Central Casting: Having trouble deciding which catcher to roll with in a 12-team mixed with OPS instead of AVG: Jeffers, F. Alvarez, or O’Hoppe. Are any of them possibly worth keeping at $10 next year?

Justin Mason: In a one catcher league, I don’t think any of them are worth $10 next season, but in a two catcher league, O’Hoppe and Alvarez may be. I lean O’Hoppe

Jason: Matt Waldron will be a top blank SP ROS? Is this just a hot streak or is this real?

Justin Mason: 60

Justin Mason: I have a ton of questions and not a ton of time left. Let’s speed round some questions

Prince Harry: Correa, Estrada, Winn or Merrill as a Bogaerts replacement in a 5×5? Keep switching between all of them

Justin Mason: Winn

DH: In a deep dynasty (16 team) format, my team is near the bottom, though I don’t think my team is anywhere near that bad. I have half a season left of Yordan under contract. What type of player would you target for him if you were in my shoes?

Justin Mason: Someone with his kind of long term upside. Langford or Chourio?

Paul: Is Lodolo a top 30-40 dynasty arm for you?

Justin Mason: yes

Follow your Bliss: best/worst last bat in al obp league: bliss, manzardo, horwitz? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Manzardo

Kimi: Need to drop either Verlander or Bryce Miller. Leaning Verlander. thoughts?

Justin Mason: Verlander

Guest: I hope this makes sense, but is there a point in the season for a roto league where some categories become insurmountable? i.e., if your ERA is shot in June, is there any chance you can actually come back and take the lead in the category? Just curious on your thoughts!

Justin Mason: End of this month is when I start thinking about punting if I am buried

Jb: Taj or Hunter B ROS?

Justin Mason: Hunter

Spirit of Joel Youngblood: Dynasty Keeper League, I traded for Aaron Judge 7 weeks ago….and got a killer offer of Corbin Caroll for him. No question, just hope others (or at least those with Schadenfreude) will enjoy my misery.

Justin Mason: I am sorry for your loss

Guest: Where would you rank Vierling amongst Soler, Langford, Burleson ROS in 5×5 OBP?  I like Vierling’s OF/3B versatility, just not sure where he’d rank amongst these guys.

Justin Mason: below Langford above the rest

Eh’s?: The 4 newest A’s starters–Estes, Hogan Harris, Spence, and Medina–each seem interesting in his own way. Are you grabbing any of them?

Justin Mason: I have Spence and Estes in a few 15 team leagues right now

KCBBq: Playing for next season…..are Story, Hendriks, Mahle (the latter two are expected back at some point this season) worth $1 flyers in a 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H keeper league ($260 team salary)? Already picked up Bautista $1, McClanahan $5. That’s a lot of injured players but figured a few are likely to stick to the wall.

Justin Mason: All of them are $1 flyers if you are punting the season

Why not Zoidberg?: Dude, you’re burning through these Qs today – amazing work.

Justin Mason: Thank you! I really try my best to answer as many as I can

Paddy: What do expect from Heliot the rest of the way? BABIP will regress, but he’s hitting the ball hard and taking his walks

Justin Mason: The zone contact says he will regress at some point, but I am riding the hot streak for now

Why not Zoidberg?: You taking Friedl’s 5 games, or 6 from JD Martinez or Varsho this week?

Justin Mason: I would take 6 from JD

Phil: 12 tm H2H. You prefer Fedde or Parker this week? And would you drop either for Waldrep as a stash despite the rough 1st start?

Justin Mason: Fedde. Wouldn’t drop either

Phil: Yanier Diaz or Alvarez at C? Have Alvarez on IL

Justin Mason: Diaz for me

Bob: When is Povich slated to start again; or why hasn’t Baltimore sent him down?

Justin Mason: Got to give him a little bit of a showcase to see if he belongs or can be part of a trade

seth: joey ortiz or jake meyers?

Justin Mason: ortiz

K: What tier pitcher should I target in return for Jake Cronenworth?

Justin Mason: top 60

Relievers: How would you rank Alexis Diaz, Muñoz, Sewald, Jansen, and Robert Suarez as closer options ROS? Saves only league.

Justin Mason: Suarez, Diaz, Munoz, Jansen, Sewald

Blue Dodger: Someone offered me Bobby Miller for Max Meyer.  I’m thinking Bobby comes back and deals like last year.  Agree?

Justin Mason: do that now

Bob: Can you see Frankie Montas reaching any consistency this year?

Justin Mason: not in Cincy

Roccojumps: Caballero and Amed Rosario, who loses the most palying time with Walls being back?

Justin Mason: Rosario

Jon: I’m really bummed about Houck this year. I had him on my roster as a potential keeper, but hemmed and hawed and didn’t hold onto him. Big time regret.

Justin Mason: Same. I had him in a couple of dynasty leagues and moved on

Nick: I just wanted to thank you and Paul for such great podcasts. Should be winning that podcast bracket every year.

Justin Mason: THANK YOU!

Mike: Bid way too much on Michael Harris at draft time.  Cut bait/sell low or hold and risk sunk cost fallacy?  Has been on bench for me for weeks (have Tatis, J-Rod, Mookie, Rooker).  Thanks!

Justin Mason: I think I would still hold

Heresss Tommmy!: What’s your aversion with TJ guys as a rule of thumb. Innings cap, obvi. Not all guys returning are just throwing blind, right? 80-90% (hypothetically) of a prior ace is still great, no?

Justin Mason: Typically guys struggle with command and control and are limited in their innings. Obviously there are guys that are exceptions to the rule, but they are so far and few between that I avoid them in redraft leagues.

Guest: Do you think Jordan Walker will still be the 40+ home run guy that he was rated as prior to this year?

Justin Mason: I think he still could be. Is still very young

Bob: Arozarena seems to be stuck on 8 HR and 7 SB and a terrible BA. Do you see any hope of him getting going soon?

Justin Mason: Unfortunately, the underlying numbers are pretty scary.

KC Pain: Would you rather have Keller and Bibee or Kirby and. M. Parker? 6×6

Justin Mason: Kirby side

JG: Nick Gonzales or Joey Ortiz ? 12T Mixed Roto

Justin Mason: Gonzales

KC Pain: Is Langeliers just Cal Raleigh in another body?  Was hoping for a higher avg and appears…not happening despite his statcast

Justin Mason: I have never seen them in the same place. Have you? Suspicious.

Frank: How early is too early to stash Noelvi Marte? And do you see him being a difference maker?

Justin Mason: I think now is the time to stash if you have room

Justin Mason: Ok, I have to wrap up. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Thank you all for chatting with me!