Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – January 6th, 2025

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Greg: In a 12-team points league where each team keeps 15 players so there are 300 players not included in the draft, would you keep Michael King (2nd round keeper), Bryan Woo (25th round) or Jared Jones (25th round)?

Justin Mason: I think I would lean Jones here because of the discount, but King is very tempting depending on what the rest of the player pool might look like

Jesse: I’m leaning towards keeping Chris Sale in the third round of my (12 team, 5×5, H2H) league. There’s pretty intense keeper inflation, the best SPs available are Wheeler and Burnes other than Sale (I’ve got Ragans, also). Nick’s ranking (22) and his age (Sale’s not Nick’s) has me spooked. Thoughts?

Justin Mason: I don’t think I would keep him as a third rounder especially with those guys available already

Kate: For dynasty leagues, would you try to avoid trading for pitching until Spring Training starts (to try to avoid the guys that come up with early injuries)?  I’m looking at the calendar and based on when my FYPD is supposed to start (mid-Feb), it starts getting a little tight.  I was trying to hold off, but feel like I might need to try to acquire an arm or two before the options thin out.

Justin Mason: The beauty of dynasty leagues is being able to make moves at any time of year. I wouldn’t wait and limit your options.

Cromulent: Hey Justin. Last week you gave a couple fairly positive reviews of Josh Bell going to the Nationals. Thoughts on Nate Lowe? How do you see the PT playing out?

Justin Mason: I think Lowe gets the majority of time at 1B while Bell gets the majority of time at DH.

Greg: In a 12-team keep forever points league that values R/RBI, would you rather have Jackson Merrill or Michael Harris?

Justin Mason: Merrill and it isn’t close

RAGBRAI: As of now in my 5×5 NL only 11 team league I am planning on retaining…Bart $1, Winn 4, Tatis 40, Crews 4, Young 3 and pitchers Jones 4, Myers 1, CSanchez 2, Alcantara 1, ERodriquez 3, Weathers 4 and Kerkering 1. Other possible keepers are LAcuna 2, Baty 5, Lux 9 and Faucher 1. Am I find now or would make changes. They must make the OD roster to keep them. Thanks!

Justin Mason: I would keep Faucher at 1 over WEathers

Ryanocerus: It’s earlier and I’m waiting on some injury updates but who would you keep. 13 tm std roto. Keep three at round value:
JRam (1), Gilbert (2), Walker (3), Teoscar (4), Strider (8), F Peralta, (9), Bibee (10), Albies (12), Joe Ryan (12), Lugo (18), Gil (21)

Justin Mason: JRam, Gilbert, Bibee

Pumpsie Green: How do you see the left side of the Milwaukee infield? Joey Ortiz to SS? Somebody else? If Ortiz to SS, who goes to 3B?

Justin Mason: Roster resource has it as Ortiz at SS and Oliver Dunn at 3B in a platoon, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they brought someone in to play SS or 3B and move Ortiz back to third. Milwaukee is cheap so they may just roll with what they have, but I expect Ortiz to play full time at either or both positions.

RAGBRAI: If grievances can be filed against a team for not spending enough, can a fan of a small market team file a grievance against a team for spending too much? Asking for a friend.

Justin Mason: Point awarded

Justin Mason: I want my team to spend. They can all afford most players. There shouldn’t be any cheap teams

Sid: What’s your take on Austin Wells and his chances of being a top 10 catcher going forward?  Thanks in advance.

Justin Mason: I really like Wells. Makes good in-zone contact and that left handed swing in New York is perfect for the short porch there. He needs to make strides versus left handed pitching if he is going to be top 10. I think he can though. He is still young and developing. He has been one of my late targets at the position in early drafts.

Matt W.: Hi Justin, I am in 26 team 50 man roster salary cap dynasty league. It is very difficult getting ace pitchers in the league. Would you resign Glasnow at probably 14- 17 million a year? Max contract is 5 years long.

Justin Mason: In a league that deep, I would. I am scared about his health, but it is almost impossible in a league that size to find an ace for cheaper.

RAGBRAI: Who signs first Alonso or Bergman? Are they playing cat and mouse figuring whoever signs second will increase the dollar amount due to team’s desperation?

Justin Mason: I think that Alonso definitely ends up back in New York. I just don’t see the market for other spots. Bregman is a tough one. Detroit makes a lot of sense because of Hinch and needing some veteran leadership, but I don’t know if they want to do another big contract like that after Baez. I think Boston could make a lot of sense or Philly.

2B is shallow: Jordan Westburg is projected for -$1.2 with less power than last year…how? Do you agree or think he’s a sleeper?

Justin Mason: I am not a huge fan of westburg, but I think he is a positive value player especially with the Orioles moving the left field fence back in. I think he can be a pretty great accumulator if he can stay healthy all season.

Brandon: Both Michael Toglia and Tyler Soderstrom put up solid stats cast data last season. Which if either could you see taking a step forward and becoming a solid and established everyday player?

Justin Mason: I think both can, but I am more interested in Toglia if I have to choose between the two. Being in colorado helps so much and I think they would commit to him even during struggles. I do think that Soderstrom plas regularly though and breaks out from a fantasy sense this season

Jim: Orioles trade Mountcastle and Kremer for Luis Castillo, sign Pete Alonso for 3 years 93 million with an opt out. Also sign a decent bullpen arm. What grade do you give the Orioles offseason if they do this? Thanks!

Justin Mason: I would give them a B+ if they do this. I don’t really have any real confidence in their front office right now though

Pedro: Hi Justin.  I’d appreciate your keeper insight.  AL only 5×5, can only keep seven:  Austin Wells $5, Parker Meadow $ 5, Butler $5, Rooker $11, Langford $16, Vinnie P $15, Joe Ryan $17, Baz $10, Woo $11, Taj Bradley $5, Ben Joyce $5.   Butler and Rooker are sure things, thinking of Ryan also because so many AL aces will be kept. Thanks in advance!

Justin Mason: Butler, Rooker, Joyce, Ryan and Langford for me.

Dodgers Blue: Can Ben Joyce be this year’s Mason Miller (live arm, bad team)?

Justin Mason: I don’t know that I would put him in the same bucket as Miller but I think he is an underrated closer in drafts this year especially if the Angels don’t bring anyone else in.

Jack: 11 team mixed roto with QS over W. I traded my Ragans who can be protected for a 7th round pick) next year for Ober (lose my 13th rounder to keep) and Robert Suarez (lose my 19th rounder). Ragans is clearly the best player, but I had a crunch as Austin Riley would be my 7th round protect, but he would be pushed to 6th by keeping Ragans.  What do you think?

Justin Mason: Really like this deal. The difference between Ragans and Ober is not Suarez. I think you did well here.

Dodgers Blue: AL East obviously a rough environment for pitchers, but assuming the Jays don’t add any other arms, do either of Yariel Rodriguez or Jake Bloss become viable in a 16 team league?

Justin Mason: I think Rodriguez for sure does. I love his stuff and while his home may end up being in the bullpen long term, he will be given a chance to start and there is a ton of upside if he can get the command and control in check. Bloss is probably a waiver guy right now, but one I would watch in spring

Bruce: A) What is your next favorite sport after baseball (or your favorite sport, if baseball is not king of the hill [foreshadowing!])?   B) If you were forced to make an adjustment to the playing field of that sport to approximate the absurdity of Tal’s Hill, what would it be?

Justin Mason: Really great question!

A) football is my second favorite sport. I grew up playing and wanted to be a college and pro football player, but I chose the Army of football after 9/11.

B) Make the redzone on both side of the field sand lol

Justin Mason: point awarded

Bruce: Junior Caminero has a “launch angle issue” but he debuted at 19, held his own at 20.  Am I crazy for thinking he’s going to join the elite bats (without speed) soon?

Justin Mason: I definitely think he could but the launch angle issues have been a thing through he minor leagues and it’s only really an issue for fantasy so it may not be something the Rays look to “fix” because it means more base hits and being on base. I still love him this year and moving forward because I do think that he is going to be a stud

Dodgers Blue: Is Ivan Herrera positioned to reward big returns on the relatively low cost as a CA2 in a two catcher league this year?

Justin Mason: I think he definitely could, but it will come down to playing time. Will the Cardinals let him get 500 plate appearances? If they do, I think he could easily be a C1 at C2 prices.

RAGBRAI: Does Shaw break camp with the Cubs and if so is he productive enough for fantasy purposes?

Justin Mason: I think the Cubs will give him every oppurtunity to make the opening day roster and if his defense can hang at 3B, he will be up Opening Day. If he makes the team, the bat should play. I haven’t done his projection yet, but I would probably have him for about a 15/15 player with a .270 average or so

Dodgers Blue: In your “Fun Catchers” and “Fun Catchers with Problems” tiers, which 2-3 catchers will YOU personally expect to have the most stock ownership in?

Justin Mason: Hunter Goodman, Ivan Herrera, and Austin Wells. Throw in Patrick Bailey as well

Baltimore bill: What’s Rutschmans babip going to be in 25 ?

Justin Mason: .280-.285

Foolery: Ceddanne Rafaela-Boston signed him to a long term  contract.  As a 24 yr old he had a nice season, really good defense, moved him around the diamond quite a bit, yet some are not impressed with his 0-1, 0-2 counts.  Isn’t this something the coaching personnel will work on during spring training?  And batting ninth isn’t this quite the find for Boston?

Justin Mason: I was surprised they gave him a long term deal considering his terrible approach. The physical tools are really loud and his defenses can be stellar, so he will get every opportunity to be successful, but until he changes his approach and improves the contact skills, he will be inconsistent at best offensively.

Jack: 8 team AL only auction league, 6×6 with QS and Wins. Who would you keep? $100 limit. Vlad-28, K Campbell, L Butler,  Meadows, W Abreu-10, Seager-28, Santander-18, Francis, Jax, Rocker, F Bautista, Springs-10, Joe Ryan-16, keep up the good work with the daily t shirt pics!

Justin Mason: Butler, Seager, Bautista

Justin Mason: Thanks for following the t-shirt series!

RAGBRAI: Any updates on R Acuna? Last report I thought I saw said maybe out until June? Is he worth draft, but at what $ price?

Justin Mason: I haven’t seen any more recent updates and I don’t know if we get one until pitchers and catchers report. I would stay away from drafting him unless you have a good amount of IL spots. We just don’t know the timeline and the limitations he might be on coming back from another injury.

tortycraig: Have to choose 4 of 5 to keep: $10 C. Sale, $5 H. Greene, $5 Bryce Miller, $24 L. Gilbert, $9 Ober. Leaning dropping Gilbert for long-term salary outlook but could also drop one of Greene, Miller, Ober.

Justin Mason: Milller, Ober, Gilbert for me personally.

Brandon: Nick Yorke had a high K rate in his limited big league exposure but has some interesting tools. Can he become a viable starter at 2B for the Pirates long term?

Justin Mason: Probably not. They have so many options right now there so at best I think he shares time, but more than likely starts in the minors.

GatorKen: Who are your favorites to accumulate saves this year that are not presently viewed as the incumbent closer?

Justin Mason: Ryan Fernandez of the Cardinals. I think they trade helsley at some point and he has a nice live arm if he can limit the walks. Orion Kerkering too if Romano isn’t healthy

Toe Cheez King: Hey Justin. Thnx for all your wisdom. O’Neil Cruz worth $20 in a 12 team 5 keeper? (260)

Justin Mason: I think that is borderline, but probably

slob: Last chat you said you had a league with a trade committee, can you explain how that works?

Justin Mason: So this is for a very deep and complicated league that involves real life contracts. A group of 3-5 members sits on the committee and discusses the validity of every trade that goes through. When you make a trade, both parties also have to submit a rationale for why they are making the move. This allows the the committee to determine if the trade process is well thought out and prevents unbalanced trades that might hurt the integrity of the league. I think they are sometimes overly cautious with certain trades, but it protects newer owners that may not understand the complexities of the league

RAGBRAI: How would you rank NLC teams as of today? Do you see any of them actually making any  significant moves that would change your rankings?

Justin Mason:

1. Brewers
2. Cubs
3. Reds
4. Cardinals
5. Pirates

I could see if anyone makes a major move or two jumping up, but I don’t believe any of them will tbh outside of potentially the Cardinals sending players out that lowers them in the race.

Idiotic Failson: Is Volpe ever going to become the 55 grade hitter he was anticipated being, or is this just who he is. He’s obviously young but he doesn’t seem to be able to put it all together for long periods of time.

Justin Mason: I still believe in the talent and think he will. He made improvements in the underlying contact skills last season and the power/speed combination are still there. I am a buyer right now

Idiotic Failson: What’s the max you’d hold Jacob Wilson윌슨 for in an Ottoneu league. I bought lots of shares but had to overpay a bunch for them at the end of last year.

Justin Mason: I honestly don’t know enough about the format to give you good advice there.

Dodgers Blue: Just seems inevitable that the O’s and M’s swing a deal at some point.    If so, what do you ultimately think the package looks like?  O’s have Westburg, Kjerstad, Basallo, Mayo, Beavers to offer on offense with guys like Povich, McDermott, and Rogers if the M’s wanted to back-fill a starter spot by giving up one of their current studs.

Justin Mason: I think a guy like Westburg would make a ton of sense for the Mariners or even Coby Mayo but I don’t know if the Orioles want to lose a guy like Mayo. I am sure Kjerstad will be a part of the conversation as the Orioles just don’t have a spot for him to play every day.

Bruce: I tried (and failed spectacularly) to set up a small KBO fantasy league during the baseball starved summer of 2020.

Read Kiri’s article on the WPBL and might give it another go in ’26. Any advice? I think OG fantasy baseball used to be patched together with box scores via mail, so I know it’s doable just wondering if there’s an FAQ out there for this sort of thing.

Link!
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-the-upstart-wpbl-should-learn-from-ot…

Justin Mason: email me or dm me on twitter/blue sky. my email is justinmasonfantasy@gmail.com. I would be happy to help you out or get you in touch with someone who can.

RAGBRAI: What are your odds on a work stoppage happening when we get to the next collective bargaining agreement?

Justin Mason: I think it is fairly high with all the issues around teams not spending money, deferred money, tv deal issues and so on.

Colton: With Keith moving to 1b, should I keep Olson $31 or let him go and try getting someone cheaper like a Vinnie P. Our salary cap is $500

Justin Mason: 31 seems like a pretty good price in a $500 cap league.

Doc Estes: Is using the Fangraphs Auction Calculator a good baseline to prepare for a Draft and Hold?  Is NFBC ADP a better option? Both in concert?  Other options?

Justin Mason: I highly recommend Tanner Bell’s draft software. It is called Smart Fantasy Baseball and it is catered to NFBC type leagues.

Chucky: In a keep forever with no contracts, who are you keeping between Royce Lewis and Jordan Westburg?

Justin Mason: Lewis and not close

Broken Bat: Cardinals, Tigers, Orioles and Dodgers all seemingly only interested in Flaherty only on their terms… Why is this? Why the waiting game?

Justin Mason: I think his injury history and history of inconsistency has teams not wanting to go a lot of years on him. I haven’t seen what he is asking for in that regard, but I totally understand it.

Wes: Is Carson Williams a better real-life prospect than dynasty prospect? Where would you have him ranked amongst dynasty SS prospects?

Justin Mason: I think he is a pretty good prospect on both fantasy and real life lists. Will come down to the hit tool, but everything else looks really good.

Idiotic Failson: Does Brett Baty break camp in the majors this year?

Justin Mason: As long as the Mets don’t sign another options for third, I think he does

Broken Bat: Isn’t Stephenson coming back from IL a threat to Joyce as Angel closer?

Justin Mason: He could be, but we need to see him on the mound before I worry

RAGBRAI: Atlanta has been fairly quiet, which usually means something big is about to happen, do you think it will be for a pitching upgrade or an offensive upgrade?

Justin Mason: I think they have to sign another starter or two. They shouldn’t be heading into the season with Ian Anderson penciled in the rotation

CjBaseball16: You probably get this a lot, but what are some suggestions or your main suggestion for someone looking to get into fantasy baseball writing/podcasting as a career?

Justin Mason: Just jump in and do it. I think a lot of people kind of dip there toes in and don’t fully commit. Start writing. Start podcasting. Even if it is on your own. I was terrible when I started Friends with Fantasy Benefits, especially behind a mic. I just worked and worked until I became the mediocre analyst I am now lol. Also, social media is huge when you first start. Post constantly. Jump into conversations with other analysts. Make friends in the industry. You need to put yourself out there. I am only where I am now because I didn’t hold myself back from talking to people. I showed up to tout wars uninvited. I started TGFBI. I invited as many people onto my podcast as I could. The more you put out into content and networking, the more doors that open up

Justin Mason: Also, don’t be afraid to ask people for help. My DMs are always open and a lot of people in the industry are like me

Colton: I’ve been looking to get into NFBC style leagues, would you recommend the $50’s as a decent starting point? I missed my enrollment into a Gladiator league due to travel over the holidays but I was thinking the $50’s could be a better place to start instead anyway

Justin Mason: There aren’t many $50 leagues except the OC qualifier but that is a good starting point for the 12-team leagues and gives you an understanding of the faab process. I would recommend that and a DC or an NFBC 50.

Rickey: another iteration of that Ragans/Ober question: Would you keep Ragans in the 7th round or Ober in the 11th?

Justin Mason: Ober

RAGBRAI: Do Alonso, Bergman and Flaherty all sign before ST starts?

Justin Mason: yes

CjBaseball16: Are you targeting any As or Rays hitters because of the ballparks this year? Avoiding pitchers on those teams?

Justin Mason: I am absolutely targeting A’s and Rays hitters. I am downgrading the pitchers too, but I am not fading the Rays guys that I like (Baz, Pepiot, McClanahan

CjBaseball16: In an only auction, are you a stars and scrubs, balance across the board or somewhere in between guy?

Justin Mason: I always let the auction come to me. I have my values and if the expensive players are cheap, I will go stars and scrubs. If the expensive players are too high, I go balanced. The latter is usually what happens for me

Idiotic Failson: Would you rather have Bobby Miller or Cristopher Sanchez in a dynasty points league? (points for IP, k – negative points for H, BB, HR)

Justin Mason: Sanchez for this year. Miller long term

Goldy: Given his comments today, do you think Goldy has a decent bounceback in him? Say 270/360/480 with 28 HR’s and 90+ RBI?

Justin Mason: I do! I am a believer in him just being in a better situation will help. I don’t think my projection is quite that high, but it isn’t too far off

Ceddanne Rafaela: Is he a top 30-35 outfielder in 2025 in a roto league with OBP instead of average?

Justin Mason: No

Colton: I saw something over the weekend that Dollander could have a chance to make the roster out of ST this year. I know it’s a pitcher in Colorado, but if anyone can maybe figure it out, it’s gotta be him. Worth a late round flyer in leagues?

Justin Mason: It would need to be in really deep leagues because I hate drafting Rockies pitchers lol. I also don’t think he makes the team after only throwing 48 innings in AA

Justin Mason: Unfortunately I have to wrap up. please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!