Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – January 27th, 2025
Here is today’s chat transcript:
9:00 |
: Good morning! please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well! |
9:01 |
: How would you rank expected overall production for these SP in 2025 – Framber, G. Kirby, deGrom, Imanaga, Gausman |
9:02 |
: Kirby, deGrom, Framber, Imanaga, Gausman |
9:02 |
: Who do you like better for this season and long term –
|
9:02 |
: I will take Ramirez for both |
9:03 |
Michael Busch takes a step forward in the increasingly stacked cubs lineup? : Justin, how are you? I hope you and family are well. I really just wanted to say hi but I will ask and question: do you think |
9:03 |
: I don’t have him taking a massive step forward but just improving a little and adding more PAs this season. I am a fan, but we need to see him strike the ball hard consistently at the major league level. |
9:04 |
: Projection Season is upon us. How can we tell if any of the various sites found on FanGraphs have updated their numbers? A latest date updated would be helpful. |
9:04 |
: That is a really good question that I don’t know the answer for. I am pretty sure Depth Charts is updated regularly. Steamer has had an update, but I don’t know when. |
9:05 |
: 14 team mixed redraft auction…what positions do you view as shallow? and as deep? Curious where to pay up for elite players at position. |
9:07 |
: I feel like every posistion this season has massive drop-offs between tiers. I think to answer this question, take a look at the back of the ADP for each position and see how many players you would be ok filling your roster with are down there and then work your way up. I dislike first base and outfield late, but you may find yourself loving some of those late options. I tend to not overrate positional depth for the most part because it tends to people reaching on players earlier which means you are giving up value |
9:08 |
: Hello, what do you think about the issue of international signings? Do you think they should do an international draft or increase the age after Sasaki’s signing? Along with those 16-year-olds and some of the signings already mentioned, could some young people not sign because of Sasaki’s signing with the Dodgers? |
9:08 |
: Sasaki, for signing international bonus, would he have to pitch at least one game or several in the minor league? Or will he be in MLB directly? |
9:09 |
: I feel like there needs to be an international draft of some sort. Or make these international players enter the MiLB draft as is. The practice of recruiting and signing teenagers in latin and south america is, for lack of a better term, gross. As far as Sasaki’s bonus, I do not know how that works. |
9:10 |
Kumar Rocker with his good FB and Sinker to reduce home runs. Will his command be improved this year for him to excel? : I love |
9:12 |
: It is hard to know how much his command and control will improve considering how few innings he has since being drafted. He was impressive from a stuff standpoint in the Majors and I believe the Rangers will give him every opportunity. He is one I am watching in Spring Training before drafting. |
9:12 |
: redraft format using Saves+Holds and K/9 as categories…what non-closers do you see as good candidates/values in this format? thanks |
9:13 |
Andrew Kittredge, Yennier Cano, Justin Slaten, Bryan Abreu, Griffin Jax, Edwin Uceta, Orion Kerkring. : |
9:14 |
: Hi Justin. 12 team roto with 3 OFs, no CI or MI. Pick one or two to keep (if I keep one I get a first round pick): sale 5th round, L Webb 5th round, Naylor 9th round or Flaherty 16th round. Currently have Betts, Soto, J Ramirez, J Rodriguez (rounds 1-4) and crochet 13th round. Thanks |
9:14 |
: Flaherty |
9:15 |
Mookie Betts (Round 1) Cole Ragans (Round 7) |
9:15 |
: Doyle, King, Marte |
9:15 |
: What has happened is that some excellent free agency players have not been able to sign, could it be because of their cost? |
9:16 |
: I think there are some that it is the years (Bregman) and others that is the cost (alonso). I think they will find homes, but they overestimated their markets and should have taken deals earlier. |
9:17 |
Bubba Chandler/Rocker. Thanks : Did a draft and picked up Carlos Estevez as a possible closer. Not sure when looking over roster resource that he will land some where as a closer. Picked up Pressley today. Need a bench bat so it’s him or |
9:17 |
: Keep Pressly since he is closing. I think you can drop Estevez for now and grab that bench bat. |
9:17 |
: Sorry about your commanders. They have a bright future. |
9:18 |
: Thank you! It was a tough game yesterday, but at the same time, I never expected them to get that far. The future looks amazing for the first time in a long time. |
9:18 |
: Would you keep Schwellenbach over Robert Jr in a 12t league with no keeper costs? |
9:18 |
: yes |
9:18 |
|
9:18 |
: No, I would keep them all |
9:19 |
: What do you think the Rays do with their returning injured SPs? Do they add more depth by Opening Day? |
9:19 |
: I think they have plenty of depth. Maybe they could make a small signing, but I think this is likely what they’re rolling with. |
9:19 |
: Keep 4: Julio 30, Corbin 22, Butler 7, Wood 7, Doyle 7, Arraez 7 |
9:20 |
: Corbin, Butler, Wood, Doyle |
9:20 |
: 2 questions . So it has been 1 year since the NFBC cheating scandal are you satisfied how they handled it? 2nd question are you drafting any DC’s right now? |
9:20 |
: I am satisfied with how they handled everything moving forward. I am still playing there a ton, but I have cut out the DCs just to limit my workload this season. |
9:21 |
: In a 14 team head to head auction league, what positions would you spend the most money on? |
9:21 |
: Auctions are about extracting value from the auction. I have prices I enter with and grab the best deals possible. I don’t worry about positions until the end. |
9:22 |
: I’ve been thinking about this question a bit lately… In a fantasy baseball competition with 12-15 friends, do you think most of us have a tendency to play it too safe? I feel like the instinct for many of us is to diversify every “risky guy” we take with 1-2 safe guys. Assuming one’s goal is to *win*, i’m wondering if I need to lean more into risk. If we take a bunch of “Safe” with our risk, i’m wondering if we’re just dooming ourselves to finish in 4th every time. |
9:25 |
: I think it really depends on the format. In a 12 team league, I am much more likely to take the risks because of the inherent value of the waiver wire. In a 15 team league, I am much more likely to play it safe because finding players on the wire that can be difference makers is much more difficult. That being said, there is nothing wrong with chasing upside that has risk as long as you do not compound it. The biggest mistake a lot of people make is they fill their team with risk. I prefer to start my draft with safer players and then as the draft goes on I am willing to take on more risk because I am ok with dropping that risky player because of the lower cost associated with him. |
9:25 |
Max Scherzer. Assuming he isn’t forced into retirement from lack of interest, would you take Scherzer over Charlie Morton in a deep dynasty? : Not much news on |
9:25 |
: I take Morton in Baltimore unless |
9:25 |
: Scherzer signs in a great spot |
9:25 |
: Any recommendations you have for best ball leagues? Joined a couple over the weekend and was drafting for volume mostly but I think I’m missing on some upside |
9:27 |
: In best ball, you want volume, but you need to mix in a good amount of upside. This is where I take those injury risk players because you aren’t having to replace them through the wire. Just make sure you draft at least a few accumulators to replace them. So for instance, if I am drafting 3 1B, I want one guy I can pencil in easily for 600 PAs and then one guy I think has massive upside. |
9:28 |
Yainer Diaz $1, Crochet $7, Royce Lewis $1, Gerrit Cole $15, Gunner $28, J-Rod 26, Witt $32, Mason Miller $12, Vladito $35 : Hi! AL Only, 10 team, $260, OBP, 2C league, just for this year – can you give me a favorite and runner-up? |
9:29 |
: A $1 Diaz is hard to pass up in a 2C AL Only. Runner up is probably Crochet at $7 |
9:29 |
: How do you see Steinbrenner Field playing? The dimensions are the same as Yankee Stadium, but the outfield is not protected by upper tiers. |
9:29 |
: I think it is going to be a hitter’s haven, but I am waiting to see what the data from people smarter than me say. |
9:30 |
: Do you have any advice on how to handle a league where DH is its own position? It’s a new thing for my roto 10-team NL only auction league, and I’m having trouble figuring out how to reallocate budget for it (it replaces the fifth OF spot). |
9:31 |
: I highly recommend using Tanner Bell’s Smart Fantasy Baseball software. It is affordable and will really dial this in for you better than I would be able to. |
9:31 |
Austin Wells $10 Ben Joyce $10 Bryce Miller $17 Vladito $35 Wyatt Langford $29. Thanks! : Hi Justin. Last keeper in an AL Only, 10 team, $260, OBP, 2C league: |
9:31 |
: Vlad |
9:31 |
Luis Garcia Jr or $27 Gunnar Henderson as a keeper, all else being equal? : In a 12 team 5×5, would you rather have $1 |
9:32 |
: Gunnar |
9:32 |
: Reading an earlier, can I assume that you are pretty much a best available drafter? Is best available your going in strategy, understanding that there are times to reach a little? |
9:33 |
: Yes, typically I am a best player available drafter. I do keep an eye on category and positional drop off, but I typically enter a draft taking the best five players available according to my projections in the first five rounds. |
9:33 |
: Are you worried at all about Nimmo reading the reports about his plantar not healing as quickly as anticipated? |
9:34 |
: I hadn’t seen that report, but now I am lol |
9:34 |
: I will definitely be looking at it today |
9:34 |
James Wood/Michael King : 12 team points league, keep five each year. Keeping Freeman, Yordan, Wheeler, and Ragans. For the 5th spot need to pick 1 between Schwarber/Seager/Langford/ |
9:34 |
: Seager |
9:35 |
: Hey Justin, 12 team Roto, 5 OFs,CI, MI, and dedicated DH. Going into draft with a chance to get skubal, Wheeler, Turner, Marte and Freeman. With Keepers I have the top SS, elite OF and Top 2 1B Along with top 20 pitcher and Alcantara coming back from TJ. Is it the smart play to go pitcher despite never really wanting to go pitcher early |
9:35 |
: With your current keepers, I would go pitching here |
9:36 |
Jake McCarthy + Thomas Harrington for Yandy Diaz in a 12 team 40 man roster dynasty league, and need some cheap steals to make up the deficit. Who are some guys that could make that up for me worth targeting? (Think post 300 ADP) : Just traded |
9:37 |
: Post 300:
|
9:38 |
I have to have my keepers posted this week and I need to know if Austin Riley has recovered from his season ending injury. Any news? : |
9:38 |
: He should be, but I haven’t seen anything either way. |
9:38 |
: Hello, are you drafting Rasmussen as a SP? or will TB keep him in the pen? |
9:38 |
: I hope they keep him in the pen, but I likely won’t draft him either way. |
9:39 |
: Football comment, but did anyone else watching the Bills keep going for the tush push even though the Chiefs kept defending it get shades of Bart saying “Good old rock, nothing beats rock.” |
9:39 |
: lmao! Point awarded |
9:39 |
: I “traded the farm” in order to win my league but it has left me with not many good keeper options. How crazy/stupid would it be to keep M. Miller $8, D Williams $7 and E Diaz $8? 12 team/roto league/keep 5. |
9:39 |
: I don’t mind it if it the best values. You could always trade one. |
9:39 |
Colt Keith – questionable power, who would you take in a keeper league considering defense as well : Colby Mayo – High K rate, |
9:39 |
: Colt Keith |
9:39 |
Grant Holmes? I play Yahoo H2H Cat. : Do you think Bubba Chandler is a good hold or go with a establish starter like |
9:40 |
: I think I would hold Chandler |
9:40 |
: especially if you have an NA spot |
9:40 |
: For roster construction purposes, do we have stats on what constitutes a replacement-level player? How many RBI-Runs, HRs, SBs, OBP does an average player produce? Even better would be numbers broken down by position. |
9:42 |
: So this is a good question. I don’t tend to worry about it from a position standpoint, but I take the 80th percentile stats from each category and then divide it by the number of hitter slots and those are rough category targets per position. For replacement value you would need to run the numbers from your previous season and then looking to see where the $0 marker is. |
9:42 |
: Do you think WAR and defensive stats have minimized 1B contributions? Mattingly, Hernandez, Garvey not getting HOF love and current stars not getting big contracts seems to have become the norm |
9:43 |
: I don’t I think teams just realize these players tend to not age particularly well. |
9:43 |
Lane Thomas ($10) Evan Carter ($10), Shane Baz ($8), Yusei Kikuchi ($8). : Thanks for these chats, Justin. Please rank last keeper in an OBP league: |
9:43 |
: Baz |
9:43 |
: Do you think expansion will help competitive balance? It seems like an expansion draft and more teams competing for talent would thin the incredible depth teams like Dodgers have built. |
9:43 |
: I think baseball has too many issues to deal with before they think about expanding again |
9:43 |
Trevor Story gets to 400 PAs this year? (396 in 2022, 595 in 2021) : Are we thinking |
9:44 |
: I have a hard time projecting it, but I did give him more. He finished last year healthy and is entering spring healthy. Still a huge risk and at this point, do we even know what he is? |
9:45 |
Jordan Westburg and Matt Mclain at the same cost in a 12 team OBP roto format. Also, if you had to invest in 3 prospects not including Roki that are likely to make 2025 impact, who would they be? : Hi Justin: Have a carryover dilema… Must choose between |
9:47 |
Emmanuel Rodriguez (not including players that have already debuted.) : McLain over Westburg. Anthony, Campbell, |
9:47 |
Kristian Campbell in MLB this year? : How many ABs are you projecting for |
9:47 |
: I need to finish his projection, but I am thinking it will be about 500 |
9:47 |
: maybe 450 |
9:48 |
: if you had to pick 1 category in a 5×5 roto that you wanted to corner the market on (or at least put a strong emphasis on), what would it be? |
9:48 |
: Power |
9:48 |
: (Nimmo) Still no restrictions on him in terms of ramp up jogging and cage work, but worried about him being anything more than 8-10 steals |
9:49 |
: that is fair, but he only has one season of more than 9 so is that really out of bounds? |
9:49 |
Nick Kurtz makes it to the show this year? : Think |
9:49 |
: maybe a Sept callup if he is just mashing |
9:49 |
: heliot ramos: superstar, stud, league winner, or all of the above? |
9:50 |
: did my projection on him last night and let’s just say that I am impressed. He made really impressive changes in the contact skills while not sacrificing power. I think he plays every day. in SF and could be a 25+ homer guy |
9:50 |
: How delusional am I for thinking Gelof can go 20/20 with a .690ish OPS |
9:51 |
: I think your OPS number is a little lofty, but he will play every day in a better park so I think he could easily be 20/20 |
9:51 |
: have less than 10 minutes and a lot of questions so we are going to speed round things a bit. |
9:51 |
: I can’t recall exactly where I read this and now I can’t find it – the idea was that you should adjust your auction calculator in a way to compensate for the idea you don’t particularly care for $1-$4 guys and they’re almost interchangable so that money should be reallocated to the top of the auction. What do you think about that strategy and how could you recreate it with the Fangraphs auction calculator? |
9:53 |
: I don’t know if you could do it in the auction calculator but you could do it manually. I don’t love the idea because it skews the numbers, but a fast and easy way that might work is just figure out where in the player pool the line is you don’t care about and then lessen the teams playing in your calculator to reflect that. It won’t be perfect, but it is a start. |
9:53 |
: 12-team, $260 AL only auction league. I have Cole $12, Bibee $5, Houck $1, McClanahan $3, Springs $4, Kremer $5, Bradford $1, Rocker $6. Which ones are not worth keeping. |
9:53 |
: Kremer |
9:53 |
: maybe rocker but that is close |
9:54 |
Jace Jung’s useful volume tied to whether or not the Tigers get Bregman? Even if they get him, he’d probably still get moved around the infield a lot and get a meaningful amount of PAs? : is |
9:54 |
: If they get Bregman, I don’t think Jung is playing much in the Majors. |
9:54 |
: i’m on the east coast and tend to have more time later in the evening to watch baseball/live-track boxscores. so as a result i tend to gravitate towards players on west coast teams bc they are usually playing when i’m watching. i always seem to have a ton of dbacks and padres on my team. weird or no? |
9:55 |
: I don’t think so. I tend to watch a lot of east coast games because I am making dinner and getting kids ready for bed during the west coast games. So I understand |
9:55 |
: When discussing auctions, what do you consider a “deal”? If you go in expecting a player to return $20 are you only drafting if they go for $18 or less? Are you willing to break even at the top of the draft for some production security? |
9:56 |
: absolutely. I want to extract as much value as I can no matter when it happens. If the early names thrown are cheap, then I grab them. If it is in the middle or late, that is when I do it. Changes every auction depending on the room. |
9:56 |
: A guy in our H2H league has started going reliever/closer only which worked out well and he won. I know if I do the same, we’re both screwed but I can’t trust the rest of the league to enforce higher prices on relievers and block his strategy. What would you do? |
9:57 |
: I rarely price enforce because you end up getting stuck with players you don’t want. Don’t go over your values. |
9:57 |
: What’s your strategy for expensive guys who are probably the “right price” in a salary cap dynasty league. For example, 13 team NL only standard roto. $270 cap. I have Teoscar at $30 and edman at $19. That’s probably what they’re worth, but there no added value there. Do you keep or throw back to maximize money for the auction. |
9:57 |
: Throw back and get more value at the table |
9:57 |
: I was strongly considering cutting Busch, I have him for $6 in a points league ($400 budget). After reading your comments I’m reconsidering. What do you think? |
9:57 |
: depends on depth of league, but I like Busch a lot |
9:57 |
: Feels like a lot of people are assuming Acuna isn’t going to be very good this year because he wasn’t great coming off the first ACL injury. I’m not saying we know for sure he will be good, but every injury is different right? |
9:58 |
: I don’t think people think he won’t be good, but it is hard to know when he will be back and how you can hold a player like that on your roster considering we don’t know if there will be limitations. Really is a format dependent question for me. |
9:58 |
: On a scale of 1-to-number of pitchers in the Dodgers rotation this year, how excited are you for spring training? |
9:58 |
: 69 |
9:58 |
: Do I get my 40/40 season this year? |
9:59 |
: I have you at 37/35 |
9:59 |
: Busch or Toglia: choose your 1B Michael for 2025 in an OBP league! |
9:59 |
: Toglia |
9:59 |
: You might not have insider knowledge but I find your chats refreshing. It’s like a chat ran by normal baseball fans, you have the same perspective of most baseball related comments I see online. |
9:59 |
: Thank you! |
9:59 |
: does vientos turn into a pumpkin, or get 130 rbis in that lineup? not |
10:00 |
: Neither lol. I like Vientos a lot, but 130 RBIs is a bit much. I do have him for 99 though |
10:00 |
: Next season, do we get 2023 Vlad G or the 2024 version? |
10:00 |
: 2024 |
10:00 |
Michael Massey ($10), Luis L. Ortiz ($10), or Casey Mize ($1). Any thoughts? : In my $260 5×5 AL-only roto league, I have room to keep one final player: |
10:00 |
: Mize |
10:01 |
: That is my time and all the questions in the queue! please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well! |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
How would you rank these three SP’s in a QS league: L. Gil, H. Greene, J. Jones ?